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Folks, can I just say what a pleasure it was to take in this recent Yankees-Mariners series? I mean, if that didn't feel like postseason baseball, what does? Don't be surprised if we see those two teams match up again in October.
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 11th, 2022, for the 9-game 1:05 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. Today is a very limited slate, but that won't stop us from finding enjoying an interesting day of baseball. What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Rockies
O/U: 12 | Moneyline: STL -123
STL: Dakota Hudson | COL: German Marquez
There's nothing like facing the monster that is Coors Field. The Rockies may be 15 games below .500, yet, as to be expected, they're an above .500 team at home, speaking to the immense home-field advantage they possess. That on its own gives them a greater edge and ability to come out on top as an underdog. Yet in this game, the gap is very minimal.
Between the acquisitions of Jose Quintana and Jordan Montgomery, the Cardinals were aggressive upgrading their rotation. With Jack Flaherty and Steven Matz injured though, the final spot in the rotation is still a massive question mark. Alas, the team is relying on Dakota Hudson to fill that spot, which could be problematic.
In fact, among starting pitchers with at least 100 innings, no pitcher has performed worse in terms of skill interactive ERA (5.22 SIERA) and K-BB (2.3%). Now, that hasn't come back to bite him yet, but a lot of that is due to the exact batted-ball luck that won't fly in Colorado. When you allow as many runners as he does (1.39 WHIP) while also not striking batters out (12.7% K), that's not a formula for success at Coors Field.
On the other side, German Marquez may not be having an ideal season for his standards, but he has performed better (4.30 SIERA) than you may think. Really, an inflated home run rate (1.48 HR/9) has been what has come back to bite him, but he's facing a Cardinals team ranked in the middle-of-the-pack in barrel rate. Meanwhile, both of these bullpens rank in the bottom-ten in SIERA, and with the pitching edge actually in Colorado's favor, this becomes a relatively even game. When that's the case, a Rockies home win is usually in the cards. Yes, there was a pun intended there.
Pick: Rockies Moneyline (+109), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cubs @ Reds
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: CIN -110
CHC: Drew Smyly| CIN: Nick Lodolo
"Is this heaven?" "No, it's Iowa." This has to be one of the all-time quotes from any baseball movie, and I can confirm that Iowa is, in fact, not heaven. Anyways, the Field of Dreams game is here, and if last year's game is any indication, we could be in for a doozy here.
Now, this may not be a high-powered matchup – both teams are 20+ games below .500 – but at least both teams have performed roughly equivalent by all measures, right? If there's one reason to tune in outside of the venue, it's to watch one of the game's better young lefties go to business. Yep, it's fair to put Nick Lodolo in that stratosphere.
On one end, Lodolo has a 4.40 ERA, but when you're allowing a .383 batting average on balls in play (BABIP) and play in absolute bandbox, that's going to happen. Rather, let's focus on the fact the 24-year-old is striking out 29% of the batters he's facing (good for a very strong 19% K-BB), with very strong peripherals (3.53 SIERA) as well. If this game was being played in Cincinnati, perhaps that wouldn't matter, but on a neutral field, it does. The Cubs rank in the bottom-ten in weighted-runs-created-plus (wRC+) against lefties this season, putting Lodolo in good position to put out a show on national television.
Cubs starter Drew Smyly (4.20 SIERA) has struggled mightily allowing barrels throughout his career. ZiPs projects him for a 4.78 ERA, which, as a proven commodity, we should probably feel inclined to believe. This is a pitcher who has failed to reach five innings in three of his five starts since coming off the injured list in the beginning of July, which wouldn't void well on a bullpen that was absolutely decimated via trades at the deadline. In a neutral venue, these two teams have performed roughly equivalent against left-handed pitching, but if there's one pitcher to have faith in here, it's certainly Lodolo. Expect Saint Nick to deliver Christmas early in Iowa today.
Pick: Cincinnati Moneyline (-110), WynnBet Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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