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The Yankees didn't play yesterday, so for one day, Aaron Judge couldn't hit a home run. Don't worry, folks; he and the Yankees are back in action today, and exceeding 61 home runs is well within reach. Oh, and Jacob deGrom pitches today. Quite a fun time to be a New York sports fan!
Welcome back, RotoBallers! In this article, I'll be providing my MLB favorite betting picks on Thursday, August 24th, 2022, for the 9-game 1:10 PM EST slate. Personally, my approach stems a bit more on the analytical side; I utilize a projection model I created utilizing projections from THE BAT X and Fangraphs Depth Charts to estimate the true talent of each lineup and pitching staff, adjusting for the team's pitcher. Based on the expected run differential each team is supposed to have in a game, we can compare this to see how much a team should theoretically win by, which allows us to translate that into a win probability, which leads to an adjusted money-line. For game totals, the implied runs scored and runs allowed for each team (with today's starting pitcher) are used, along with Baseball Savant park factors. This is not the "end all be all," but having some objective system to identify potential sources of value can be extremely helpful!
Today, we will be looking at the best side and total bets for today's slate. It's a light slate of games, even for a Thursday, but are still several very exciting games featuring plenty of star talent. What games should you keep an eye on? Let's dive right into today's action!
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MLB Betting Projection Model Results
*NOTE: Negative Diff indicates that the home team is projected to win, and vice versa.
Today's MLB Betting Picks - Cardinals @ Cubs
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: STL -132
STL: Dakota Hudson| CHC: Marcus Stroman
With the 2023 MLB schedule leading to a balanced slate of games where every team plays one another, the time of divisional opponents facing off 19 times a year is coming to an end. This leads to more diverse matchups and overall excitement, though it also means fewer rivalry games, including one of my personal favorites – the friendly contest between the Cardinals and Cubs.
Certainly, these teams are heading in completely different directions; the Cubs are currently 17 games behind St.Louis in the division. Still, for one day, expect those roles to be reversed. There haven't been a lot of bright spots for the Cubs this season, but, so far, they should be pleased with the production they've gotten from Marcus Stroman this year.
In his first season of a three-year, $71 million deal, the 31-year-old is right around his career-best marks in skill interactive ERA (3.67 SIERA), K-BB (15.5%), strikeout rate (22.2%), and xFIP (3.31), and has made beneficial changes to his pitch usage – throwing more sinkers and ditching his ineffective four-seam fastball. If there's a day for the Cubs to come out on top, it's with him on the mound.
Meanwhile, whereas St.Louis has to feel great about the contributions they're getting from Jordan Montgomery, Adam Wainwright, and Miles Mikolas, the last spot in the rotation is such a sore spot that they've tried to skip over it when possible. Among starting pitchers with at least 110 innings, Dakota Hudson ranks last in SIERA (5.14) and K-BB (2.7%) and has pitched five innings or fewer in four straight starts. The Cubs may struggle with strikeouts, but against Hudson, their other qualities – middle-of-the-pack in walk rate and isolated power (ISO) – should allow them to find success here.
Whereas Chicago has a starting pitcher they can depend on for significant length, the Cardinals don't, which is notable considering these two teams are in the midst of a five-game series in four days. When that's the case for a team priced as a notable underdog, it's something that can't go unnoticed. It hasn't been a fun season for Cubs fans, but a series win against St.Louis would definitely be a bright spot, and they're in position for some sun to shine in the Windy City.
Pick: Cubs Moneyline (+119), WynnBet Sportsbook
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Today's MLB Betting Picks - White Sox @ Orioles
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CHW -108
CHW: Lance Lynn| BAL: Jordan Lyles
Oh, no, we're going back to his well, aren't we?
On Tuesday, we looked at the White Sox moneyline being a favorable bet to make, which made sense; they were playing much better as of late, are much healthier, and had Dylan Cease on the mound. Instead, they came up short, though after bouncing back with a win on Wednesday, still can take a much-needed series win over a fellow AL playoff contender (still weird to say about the Orioles).
I'll harp on a similar point with the White Sox that we brought up on Tuesday:
"Meanwhile, the South Siders (11th in wRC+ over the past 30 days) have seen improved offensive contributions as of late, and it goes back to the production they're getting from key players during that time frame:
- Eloy Jimenez: 191 wRC+
- Jose Abreu: 131 wRC+
- AJ Pollock: 126 wRC+
- Gavin Sheets: 131 wRC+
Now, Jimenez and Abreu are certainly benefitting from batted-ball luck, yet their quality of contact has also been very strong as well. Heck, Luis Robert has only played ten games during that span; they're definitely a better team now than they were earlier in the season, even without Tim Anderson in the fold."
Overall, they rank 9th in wRC+ over the past 30 days and get to face a pitcher in Jordan Lyles whose 5.20 projected ERA from ZiPs isn't exactly a bright note. On the other hand, Lance Lynn got off to a tough footing after not debuting until June with a knee injury, but since the start of the second half, he has simply been on a roll:
- 28.4% K, 1.9% BB, 2.74 SIERA
This may just be a seven-game sample, but even overall he sports a very strong 3.32 SIERA, while his quality of arsenal based on Eno Sarris' stuff+ model (97 to 102.4) has ascended dramatically over the past month. Of course, there are few better places for a pitcher to do business than in the renovated Camden Yards; it has the fourth-lowest park factor for home runs this season, which you'd expect given the dramatic changes to the left field fence.
Ultimately, even if you called these two teams similar from an offensive standpoint, which I'm not sure is the case, the pitching advantage is too substantial in the White Sox's for this game to be considered a coin-flip. Yet, it is currently, and that's something to take advantage of. Please don't make us look silly again!
Pick: White Sox Moneyline (-108), FanDuel Sportsbook
Good luck, RotoBallers! Stay tuned for more great DFS and betting content throughout the week! For more baseball content, you can follow me at @talkmvp.
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