RADIO
It's a whole lot easier writing this piece after a winning night. Recapping where I was right and talking about how a few bets just missed and held us back from a really big night. Instead, I am up well before the sun and most of the population on the East Coast to put the finishing touches on my predictions for Sunday's games and series after an absolute debacle on yesterday's slate.
It's a pretty popular theme in this industry to "take the credit and pass the blame." So often, we have to promote our own work in this business and the easiest way to do that is by saying, "look I was right, again!" A winning DFS lineup screenshot or betting ticket is posted on Twitter to attract more followers, readers, or subscribers. Well, I am here to accept the blame for some bad picks yesterday, it's that simple. My only "near misses" were the Dallas game (Mavs were +5 and lost by six) and Draymond Green's prop (he finished one rebound or assist short of 15.5). I was very wrong about Toronto and Denver as underdogs and completely underestimated the momentum the Timberwolves had coming into their series with Memphis. In the end, it's still about the process over the results and I am hoping to chalk up yesterday's results as more of a fluke than a trend. But I also took some extra time last night and this morning to reflect on my picks and how I got there to make sure I wasn't overlooking any important details, too.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 9-17
- Against the Spread 3-7
- Over/Under 1-2
- Player Props 5-8
NBA Betting Picks and Series Previews
Atlanta Hawks (+6.5) @ Miami Heat (218.5 total)
The Hawks had only one day to rest after coming back from double-digits to beat the Cavs on Friday night and secure the #8 seed. Meanwhile, Miami has had a full week to get healthy, rested, and prepared. Don't worry, I am not harboring any bias towards Atlanta after they beat my Cavs, I would be picking the Heat here in Game One if they had been facing Cleveland instead.
The Hawks lost Clint Capela to injury right before halftime on Friday and he's out tonight and probably at least one more game as he recovers from a leg injury. The only good news for Atlanta is that John Collins is likely to return from a long absence tonight and can help fill the void that Capela leaves in the frontcourt. Atlanta will have to continue to lean on Danilo Gallinari, Onyeka Okongwu, and Gorgui Dieng for some minutes at power forward and center, too.
Miami is one of those teams where you look at them and think, "Is this really the best team in the East?" Well, the record indicates that and while the Bucks are the favorite to win the conference, it wouldn't surprise me at all to see Miami in the conference finals battling it out with Milwaukee to seven games. The Heat have a very balanced team and can kill you in a number of different ways. Jimmy Butler is a defensive stopper and can take over a game on offense when he needs to. Kyle Lowry is an experienced veteran who can knock down shots. Tyler Herro gets buckets and will be the NBA Sixth Man of the Year. Bam Adebayo is an above-average defender, rebounder, and often underrated. The Heat have shooters everywhere with Duncan Robinson, Max Strus, Herro, and Gabe Vincent. P.J. Tucker should be healthy and ready to contribute and, oh yeah, Victor Oladipo - a former leading scorer in Indiana and Orlando - is back and is going to help bolster their bench.
Miami has the defense to slow down Trae Young and they're well-coached. They will adjust faster than Cleveland did the other night to what Atlanta is doing and they have enough perimeter defenders to really make life tough on him. I think Atlanta will be a trendy upset pick in this series or some think they can get it to seven games, but I think the Heat take care of business and win in six. My initial call was going to be five games, but if Capela is back by Game Three, then I think it's possible that Atlanta can win two games in this series.
Miami won the season series 3-1 this year, with the lone Atlanta win coming by two points. For the bets, I am skipping a series bet here because there aren't any that I really like at decent odds. For Game One, I am on the Heat to cover and win big today. I also like the over, as Miami had the third-best cover rate on overs this season and Atlanta went over more than under, too.
The Picks: Heat -6.5 (-110 DK), OVER 218.5 (-110 DK)
Series Prediction: Heat 4-2
Brooklyn Nets (+4) @ Boston Celtics (224 total)
The other team in the East that had to earn its way into the playoffs was Brooklyn, which was a surprise based on their preseason outlook this year, but obviously, things didn't go as planned as Kyrie Irving had to sit out home games for most of the year, the team dealt with injuries to Joe Harris, Kevin Durant, LaMarcus Aldridge, and others. And then James Harden was swapped for Ben Simmons, Seth Curry, and Andre Drummond before the deadline. While Curry and Drummond have become important members of the lineup, Simmons has yet to suit up and we have no idea when he will or if he will this postseason.
The question in this series is simple - are KD and Kyrie good enough to carry a relatively mediocre roster past a much more balanced Boston team? I know, I'm boring and probably more "old school" than a lot of NBA fans but I think the answer is no. I'll take the team that has more depth, plays better defense, and is less reliant on superstars every time. In fact, that combination of attributes in a team can be found in all the most successful NBA franchises right now. Look at what Phoenix, Memphis, Miami, and Boston all did this year. I truly think the days of the superteams are coming to an end as we saw the Lakers experiment fall apart the last several seasons and the Nets' Harden-Kyrie-KD experiment didn't even last half a season.
I was wrong about Boston and I am not afraid to come clean about it. I didn't think that Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown had enough star power to carry the rest of this roster, but after a rough first couple of months, Boston has been playing the best basketball of any team in the NBA whether you're looking at wins and losses, net rating, or really just the eye test, too. Al Horford continues to be a steadying presence and they'll need him to come up big in this series with their starting center Robert Williams III out. Marcus Smart is an elite defender and a guy who gets every loose ball, hustling his ass off. The additions of Daniel Theis, Josh Richardson, and Derrick White really reinforced the bench unit and the growth of Payton Pritchard was evident in his second season.
The Celtics should be bigger favorites in Game One and in this series. They are only -130 to win the series and the Nets have better odds than them to win the conference! I don't get it. Tatum and Brown have plenty of experience, Horford is a proven winner, and we know this team is well-coached and play together incredibly well. Brooklyn is in many ways still figuring out their rotations and nothing against Steve Nash because I thought he was an amazing player, but Ime Udoka is a better coach and was voted Coach of the Year for how he maximized the talent on this roster.
Boston won the season series 3-1, but the only game where we saw Kyrie and KD both playing for Brooklyn was the most recent matchup last month when Boston prevailed 126-120 behind 52 from Jayson Tatum. I like the Celtics to cover at home in game one, they will be charged up for this one, well-rested, and have the backing of a raucous crowd. I think Brooklyn will push it to seven games, but ultimately Boston wins Game Seven at home and sends the Nets home early.
The Picks: Celtics -4 (-110 DK), Boston to win series (-130), Series Correct Score = Boston 4-3 (+320 DK)
Series Prediction: Celtics 4-3
Chicago Bulls (+10) @ Milwaukee Bucks (229 total)
The last two games on this slate are really lopsided, or at least they have really wide spreads for playoff games. I hate games like this and I'm usually going to side with underdogs when spreads are this wide, but there's really no way I can back the Bulls (or the Pelicans) today, or in their series.
The Bucks are the defending champs and have been rounding into playoff form at the right time. They are healthy and have the reigning MVP with a full supporting cast of really good NBA players. The Bulls have stumbled badly in the second half and dropped all the way to the sixth seed. They found out they won't get Lonzo back for the playoffs, and this Bulls defense just hasn't been the same without him. Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams being back in the mix certainly help out a little, but Chicago is still badly outmanned on their second unit when going up against the Bucks and I'm not sure how they'll stop this Milwaukee machine. The simple answer is - they won't.
The Bucks owned the Bulls this year, going 4-0 against them. In the two games that Lonzo played in, the Bulls lost by an average of five points. In the final two meetings (no Lonzo), the Bulls lost by an average of 24.5 points. I'm still not dying to lay 10 points here as you never know if Milwaukee starts off slow or shows some rust, but I do think the Bucks win today and win the series pretty easily. I have them winning in five games because I think Chicago steals a game somewhere behind a big DDR performance. But Milwaukee is better everywhere and we know this Bulls team just isn't what everyone thought they might be back in November.
I hit the over on this total when it first came out at 225 and it's been climbing since. It's a bit too high for my liking now, but I am still going to attack the Bucks' team total of 119.5 as they've scored 126 and 127 points against Chicago in the last two meetings.
The Picks: Bucks team total over 119.5 points (-120 DK), Series spread = Bucks -2.5 (-180 DK), Bucks to win East (+225)
Series Prediction: Bucks 4-1
New Orleans Pelicans (+10.5) @ Phoenix Suns (222.5 total)
I am going to keep this preview shorter than the rest and I don't think it needs the same level of analysis as the others do. The Suns are really, really good. This is one of the best "teams" in the truest sense of the word that we've seen in the NBA in some time. They are the favorites to repeat in the West and I really do think they will. Meanwhile, the Pelicans are probably the worst team remaining in the field of sixteen teams that made the playoffs. They beat a pretty poor Spurs team and then got lucky to advance past the Clippers when Paul George was ruled out at the last minute due to COVID.
Phoenix has the best true point guard in the game (CP3) and an elite scorer in Devin Booker. Deandre Ayton continues to evolve into a really good big man and the Suns have an elite assortment of wings in Mikal Bridges, Jae Crowder, and Cameron Johnson. The depth of Phoenix is going to be an issue for New Orleans in this series and their ability to defend McCollum and Ingram is what is going to allow them to dominate.
Phoenix took the season series 3-1 with the lone win for New Orleans coming in a game that Chris Paul missed during his six-week absence in the second half of the season.
I don't really want to lay 10.5 points on the Suns here despite their elite record ATS, and we have enough games that I'm not going to. I do like a few series and futures bets here. You can get the Suns to sweep at +200 on DraftKings and they are still almost even money to win the West. With no Lakers or Clippers in the postseason, the biggest challengers to Phoenix are Golden State and Memphis and they'll only have to beat one of those teams since they have the top seed.
The Picks: Suns to win the West (-110), Series total games = 4 (+200)
Series Prediction: Suns 4-0
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
Trae Young UNDER 9.5 assists (+110 DK) - I rarely take unders, but we are going to see the prop market get inflated in the postseason as the books quickly realize that bettors want overs for the starters who they anticipate will be playing big minutes. Miami is a tough matchup for point guards (see the charts below) and they held Trae to an average of only 7.5 assists this year across four games. His best game was nine dimes, therefore he covered this under all four times.
Brook Lopez OVER 12.5 points (-115 DK) - Bro Lo is averaging over 16 points per game over his last six games and hit this number in five of those six games. He absolutely smashed the Bulls in their most recent matchup, going for a season-high 28 points. Vucevic is such a poor defender and Lopez is such a skilled scorer. I look for the Bucks to feed Lopez in the post, the mid-range, and he's always good for a few spot-up threes, too.
Al Horford OVER 23.5 PRA (-120 DK) - This has been a money prop for me for the last few weeks and the markets still haven't adjusted. Since Robert Williams III went down with an injury on March 27, Horford started five games at center and has averaged 12-10-4 in 30 minutes. If we see his minutes bump a little more in playoff games to around 32, that puts him into position to cover this prop pretty easily due to his rebounding and passing.
DeAndre Ayton to record a double-double (-190 DK) - These odds are gross for straight bets, but if you're building player prop parlays or round-robins, this is a pretty safe prop that I will be using today. Ayton has a double-double in 10 of his last 12 games and is a good bet to do that again today against the Pellies.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
(click either chart to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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