RADIO
We enter the third day of the NBA playoffs today with game two of three different series today. It looks like we will have three games per day all week, so as long as I can manage it with my MLB content schedule, I'll try to keep putting out daily picks all the way through Round One.
Yesterday all the favorites won, but the Celtics needed a buzzer-beater to hold off the Nets and failed to cover. The Bucks didn't cover either and after scoring 37 first-quarter points and looking like they were ready to cruise to another high total, their offense stalled out and they were held to 93 points. The good news is that prop bets went 3-1, while the bad news was the final prop I needed to cash all of my parlays was the Deandre Ayton double-double and he finished with only nine rebounds. That's frustrating, but it happens. You just have to hope you're on the right side of variance on the next bet and you move on.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 14-19
- Against the Spread 4-8
- Over/Under 1-3
- Player Props 9-8
NBA Betting Picks for 4/18
Utah Jazz (-5) @ Dallas Mavericks (205.5 total)
The Mavericks absolutely battled the Jazz on Saturday but came up six points shy, dropping Game One 99-93. They're back as five-point underdogs again tonight, showing that bettors still have some faith in them despite the status of Luka Doncic, who is doubtful to suit up in this one.
I'm not bailing on the Mavericks just yet. They shot poorly in Game One (38.2% overall from the field, 28% from three) and still were right there with a chance to win or cover at the end. Jalen Brunson and Spencer Dinwiddie both managed 20+ points even with the poor shooting and their defense held the Jazz in check. Donovan Mitchell ended up with 32 points but needed 29 shots to get there.
Dallas is a tough team and though it's an uphill battle without their leading scorer, rebounder, and passer with Luka out, I think they find a way to cover this spread tonight. I also think the total got dropped a bit too far based on just one game and if either team shoots a bit better today, they can hit this over. I'm going with the Dallas team total instead of the game total because I am correlating my picks together. If Dallas does cover, I'm anticipating they did so by increasing their efficiency on offense and they need just eight more points to hit 101 and cover their team total. They averaged around 108 without Luka during the regular season.
The Picks: Dallas +5 (-110 DK), Dallas team total over 100.5 points
Toronto Raptors (+7) @ Philadelphia 76ers (217.5 total)
The Raptors really let me down in Game One as they got lambasted by 20 points by the Sixers in a lopsided game that Philly led throughout. Now Toronto is likely going to be without Thaddeus Young, Scottie Barnes, and Gary Trent Jr. for Game Two, and things are looking bleak for the Raptors.
Toronto simply doesn't have the depth to deal with two missing starters. Gary Trent Jr. is their best shooter and Scottie Barnes does a little of everything in terms of scoring, rebounding, and facilitating. Too much of the load on offense is going to fall on Pascal Siakam and Fred VanVleet now and I'm not sure how Nick Nurse adjusts his rotations but he's going to have a really hard time trying to match up against this Philly lineup with guys like Chris Boucher or Yuta Watanabe.
The most surprising thing to me in Game One was that the Sixers' leading scorers were Tyrese Maxey and Tobias Harris and they didn't even need big games from James Harden or Joel Embiid, who both shot the ball poorly. This one should get ugly again and there's no way I can keep backing the Raptors here in Game Two with the loss of two starters. They were 4.5-point underdogs in Game One, lost by 20, and are now only seven-point underdogs after losing two starters? Philly wins big tonight and takes a commanding 2-0 lead in the series.
The Pick: Sixers -7 (-110 DK)
Denver Nuggets (+7) @ Golden State Warriors (224.5 total)
Denver is another team I picked to upset a higher seed in Round One and I'm awfully nervous about that pick after the Warriors cruised to a 123-107 win in Game One. Steph Curry came off the bench and only played 21 minutes and the Warriors still got it done. It's quite possible I misjudged this series and that Golden State is rounding into top form in time for a run at the conference title, but it's also possible they overperformed a bit based on their shooting numbers and I'm not ready to give up on Denver entirely.
Consider that the Warriors shot 52.4% from the field and were 45% from downtown. They also got to the line 29 times to Denver's 13. That tells a big part of the story right there. Jordan Poole and Klay Thompson were lights out from behind the arc, while Jokic was 0-4, Morris was 1-5, and Gordon was 0-3.
Denver is going to need Jokic to force the issue in the post and take over on offense. Golden State has no answer for him in there and one bright spot in game one was Will Barton, who finished with a 24-6-5 line on 10-18 shooting. I don't think Aaron Gordon disappears again in Game Two and I think Monte Morris and Bones Hyland are capable of more as co-point guards than the 10 points Denver got from each. Curry is still going to come off the bench and play limited minutes, so Denver has an opportunity to even the series here before Steph gets back to playing full minutes, but they simply have to win this one or things are going to get awfully dicey.
Just like with the Dallas-Utah game, the spread here hasn't budged from Game One to Game Two and I'm willing to back the underdogs here and hope for some regression from GSW and a better overall effort from the Nuggets.
The Pick: Nuggets +7
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Jalen Brunson PRA over 32.5 (-110 DK): For some reason, Dinwiddie's props aren't up yet but I will be on both Dallas guards again here. Brunson had 36 total PRA in Game One and as I mentioned, he didn't even shoot the ball all that well. FanDuel has his number set all the way at 34.5, so jump on the value over on DK.
Will Barton PRA over 24.5 (-120 DK): If you followed this column during the regular season, you'll know I am a Barton fan and I had his number on Saturday at only 23.5 but included that bet for my premium peeps in slack only. I'll go public with it this time, I see Barton staying very much involved on offense and clearing this number again with ease, as he did in Game One.
OG Anunoby PRA over 24.5 (-125 DK): Anunoby played well in Game One, finishing with 20 points, seven boards, and two assists. Today, he will be asked to help pick up the slack left behind by Trent Jr. and Barnes, so look for even more shot attempts on offense and some available rebounds vacated by Barnes. Tobias Harris is not the strongest defender, and OG can win that matchup and will have to in order to keep Toronto in the game.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
(click either chart to enlarge)
I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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