RADIO
I will "take my L," as the kids say these days when they happen and last night was a big 'ole "L." My picks in this piece went 0-3 yesterday and I am kicking myself for not trusting my gut on a few of those picks. Instead of taking the Lakers -2.5 (who won easily by 10), I took the over in that game, and while James Harden hit his props for me and put up a big score in DFS, not many other Nets did much scoring and that game went well under its total. I mentioned in the Warriors write-up that I liked them to cover, but I recommended the under instead only to see them score 130 points in a blowout win (their second-highest total of the season).
Then to cap it off, the Timberwolves won by only two points, failing to cover by one mere point. With two minutes left, Anthony Edwards missed three free throws that would have extended the lead to nine points, and then D'Angelo Russell went 1-2 from the line shortly after. CJ McCollum hit a deep three to tie it and then the T-Wolves managed to score the winning bucket in the closing seconds. Hopefully, you had their money line and not the spread.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, January 26th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 64-65
- Against the Spread 42-36
- Over/Under 19-26
- Other/Props 5-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too. I also was advised by multiple people that I was being too hard on myself by counting teaser and parlay picks in my overall record, so I took those out and BAM, I'm sitting at six picks over .500 on the year right now, which is pretty solid.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
LA Clippers (+1) @ Orlando Magic (213 total)
The Clippers pulled off an improbable comeback last night, rallying to score 80 second-half points and erase a 65-36 halftime deficit. They beat Washington on the strength of a 4-point play in the final seconds from Luke Kennard and managed to pick up a solid road win despite being without Marcus Morris and Paul George.
So today they are rewarded by being underdogs on the road to the lowly Magic? That puzzles me. Even if it was a bunch of unsung heroes for L.A. last night who helped pull off that comeback, this Clippers roster is still a lot better than Orlando's. The Magic are 5-15 at home this season, so I don't put too much stock into a home-court advantage. I will ride the hot hand here and predict that the Clippers win again tonight against the young Magic team. Most of their core players should be fresh as the minutes were really spread out among their rotation last night so the back-to-back shouldn't be a concern either.
The Pick: Clippers ML (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks Totals
Milwaukee Bucks (-4) @ Cleveland Cavaliers (218.5 total)
I am so hyped for this game! As you know, I am a Cavs fan and I've enjoyed watching this team this year so much. While the numbers suggest the Cavs could cover and win here, I simply won't put that pressure on my guys by taking them. The Cavs are also down Lauri Markannen and potentially Jarrett Allen, which really hurts them as they already lack depth and their size is the one thing that usually gives them an edge over their opponents.
Meanwhile, the Bucks are healthy and they are the defending champs let's not forget. Can the Cavs go toe to toe with them here? I think they'll hang, but Milwaukee should win even on the road. What I am banking on here is that Cleveland's defense and their slow pace of play keep this game from going over its total. Both meetings between these two teams have gone under 218 this year, though the one game that Cleveland won was against a Bucks squad that was missing most of their starters. This is a huge matchup in the Eastern Conference and if the Cavs want to prove they have a shot at winning a playoff series or two, they'll need to take the Bucks down the wire here. I think it does stay close and for that reason, I like it to go under the total as we often see these types of close games that actually matter grind to halt in the final minutes of the fourth quarter.
The Pick: UNDER 218.5 (good down to 216) -110 DK Sportsbook
NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks
The Pick: Miami/Atlanta/Phoenix ML Parlay = +192 DK Sportsbook
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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