RADIO
Friday's NBA slate was very much a mixed bag for me. While I did pretty well in DFS, the two bets I recommend in this column both missed, and a few others I liked (but not quite as much) hit. That's why I always supply my model as well and try to highlight a few other good spots there. The Spurs have been a team I've targeted a lot ATS this season and sure enough, they pulled off a nice upset against the Bulls on Friday and I was too chicken to recommend them. You win some, you lose some, and even after an 0-2 Friday I am still sitting (though precariously) at one game above .500 on the season.
It seems like the COVID craziness that made making picks so difficult for the last few months is finally waning, but we still have a lot of injury situations to deal with even with only eight games on the docket tonight. Just proceed with caution as always.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, January 31st, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 69-68
- Against the Spread 43-37
- Over/Under 20-27
- Other/Props 6-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too. I also was advised by multiple people that I was being too hard on myself by counting teaser and parlay picks in my overall record, so I took those out and BAM, I'm sitting at six picks over .500 on the year right now, which is pretty solid.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers (-7.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (210 total)
So let's address the elephant in the room right away. Yes, the Cavs dropped a game to the lowly Detroit Pistons last night, losing by 10 points after leading nearly the entire game. While that really sucked for Cavs fans and bettors alike, it was a pretty fluky outcome when you consider the entire season-long sample size from these Cavs. They've been fantastic against the spread all season long, whether that's at home or on the road.
I'm still getting used to seeing them as such heavy favorites on nights where they face inferior opponents, but I think this spread is well-deserved tonight and that the Cavs can cover it. Throw away yesterday's result and focus on the fact that this Cavs team is still 8-2 over their last ten games, while the Pelicans are a mere 4-6 and have dropped three in a row.
New Orleans could be without Brandon Ingram, Jonas Valanciunas, and Josh Hart in this game, too. They lost their last three games by an average of 10.3 points and I think we see that trend continue here with a double-digit Cavs victory.
The only time these teams met earlier in the year, the Pelicans prevailed 108-104 but the Cavs were without their lifeblood Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen in that game.
The Pick: Cavs -7.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Portland Trail Blazers (-3.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (217 total)
I will just start by saying this is a nice game for DFS tonight, as the Thunder players will all make appealing targets with their main man Shai Gilgeous-Alexander out of the lineup. But for that same reason, I think the Blazers should be much bigger favorites than they currently are, even on the road.
OKC just isn't the same team without SGA. They're 0-5 without him this season and even when we toss out the historic 76-point loss to Memphis as an outlier, their net rating drops to -11.5 in the other four games combined without SGA. When I look at Portland, I see a team that has been pretty resilient of late when you consider they are still without their superstar Damien Lillard and have been battling injuries to important role players like Robert Covington, Nassir Little, and Larry Nance Jr. Portland is 4-4 since C.J. McCollum returned to the lineup and has a net rating right around zero.
I'm loading up on the Blazers here, I think they cover this spread with ease tonight based on their strong recent play and how bad OKC has been without their best player.
The Pick: Blazers -3.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Miami Heat (+4.5) @ Boston Celtics (208 total)
This pick really relies on the Heat's leader, Jimmy Butler, playing tonight. So if you want to wait to see that confirmed, I don't blame you. If Butler was absolutely going to play, I think this spread would be closer so there must be some healthy skepticism about his availability in the betting community.
Having said that, if Butler is in then the Heat should be favored or we should at least have a pick 'em here. Miami has been a better team without Boston all year and the absence of Kyle Lowry from their lineup hasn't had much effect on their net rating at all.
How about these trends, too? Miami is 13-3 ATS as the underdog this season with a league-best +13 point differential. They're also 15-11 on the road ATS. When you combine the two trends, they're 9-3 as road underdogs with a +10 differential.
I'll take Miami with the points now, and if Butler gets ruled in then I'll add Miami ML to my card (hopefully still at plus odds) at that point.
The Pick: Heat +4.5 (Butler's status is paramount here) -110 DK Sportsbook
Let's roll out a nice home favorite ML parlay today! Give me the Cavs, Knicks, Pacers, and Hawks to all win at home - which provides us with some really nice odds since only the Cavs and Knicks are slightly large favorites there.
The Pick: Cavs/Knicks/Pacers/Hawks ML Parlay (+470 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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