RADIO
We are almost to the end of one whole week of NBA basketball this season and I have to say it was a really solid week one for me with both DFS lineups and betting. Friday's picks went 2-2 but only because the Celtics destroyed my parlay and teaser, and I should have known better than to put them in both of those bets as they have been shaky to start the year.
Even with 2-3 games worth of data, I will remind you to be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun the first few weeks and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, October 25th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last year developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 4-3
- Against the Spread 2-0
- Over/Under 1-1
- Teasers/Parlays 1-2
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser.
NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (-2.5) @ Toronto Raptors (212.5 total)
So we are going back to the Bulls today for a few reasons. One of them is the simple eye test - they look like a really good team to me and I've watched them in the preseason and some of their first three games. This team is already playing with a lot of cohesion on offense and shutting teams down defensively. They are off to a 3-0 start and look like a legit contender in the East. Meanwhile, the Raptors are a young rebuilding group who can struggle on offense at times. I think this is a really tough matchup for them as Lonzo can guard VanVleet and try to take away their top-scoring option.
Now onto the stats - the Bulls are not only 3-0 on the season but have covered the spread in each win so far. This spread seems awfully low to me, even with Chicago being on the road. My model likes them by as many as 10-12 points tonight so I think we have a wide margin for error. This game has a low total and the Bulls have shown they can grind out games with their defense and half-court offense. I give the Bulls bench an edge here, too, as Alex Caruso has been impressive as their sixth man while the Raptors have got little to nothing from their bench unit with Chris Boucher being a massive disappointment thus far.
The Pick: Chicago -2.5, -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Washington Wizards (+6.5) @ Brooklyn Nets (233.5 total)
NOTE: THIS TOTAL HAS DROPPED ALL THE WAY TO 228.5. I still lean towards the under, but a lot of the value is gone on this pick. I'm going to stick with it, but it if it drops any further between now and game time, just avoid it.
I mentioned this on Friday but the models are going to have some wacky projections the first week or two until we get enough data for them to normalize. So when we get games projected for only 190 points in Atlanta and Toronto, that's not likely to happen and those totals are already so low that there's not much value left in betting the under in either of those games.
What I am looking for early on in the season is for where the models agree - those are some of the games where I think we are going to get the most reliable projections. There's one game where this is the case and it's the Washington-Brooklyn game which comes in under the total in all three models and a full 18 points under in the aggregated model as a result.
I'm scratching my head trying to figure out why that total is so high. Brooklyn has been under their total in all three games while Washington only went over their total once in an overtime game. This game projects at league average pace (around 100 possessions) and neither team has been that good offensively.
I'm not saying we won't see any offense in this one, but I don't think we see this game come anywhere close to 233. I prefer betting overs to unders (because the threat of overtime is always scary) but I also trust the process and the numbers are all saying this total is badly inflated. Hit the under and watch this line to see if it moves during the day. I'm good with it all the way down to 230.5
The Pick: Under 233.5 (good down to 228.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Sometimes I will be posting teasers with point totals, but I won't feel really good about totals for a few slates until we get several games worth of data to crunch.
Today we have a mixed teaser with a total and two spreads. Long story short, I like the Wizards quite a bit as dogs but wouldn't mind some extra cushion there while I think the T-Wolves win but would like to eliminate some room for the Pelicans to cover so a 4.5 teaser takes that spread to where it's virtually a moneyline bet.
My favorite game for DFS tonight is the Portland-LAC game and while I think it could go over 230+, let's buy a few points just in case!
The Picks: Wizards/Twolves/Over POR-LAC 4.5 point teaser (+150 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Player Props Matrix
(click image to enlarge)
This is something new that I will be adding to my articles going forward! While player props usually don't come out early enough for me to include in the articles, I can at least give you some data to help make those picks!
We are using only 2-3 games of data here but you can use the chart to find which teams have allowed the most points, rebounds, and assists to each position (compared to the league average). PRA is the total of all three stats - again, compared to league average and PRA bets are some of my favorites!
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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