RADIO
Friday nights from October to April are HUGE NBA nights and I am pretty hyped up for this 7-game NBA slate tonight - both for DFS contests and betting! Wednesday we had some mixed results. I was stoked to see my Miami upset call pay off, but disappointed that Memphis-Portland turned into a blowout and went well under its total. Lesson learned = games are still going under far more often than over and taking the over on the highest total on the slate is risky!
Even with 4-5 games worth of data, I will remind you to be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun the first few weeks and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, October 29th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last year developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 7-6
- Against the Spread 4-0
- Over/Under 2-2
- Teasers/Parlays 1-4
We are undefeated so far this year against the spread and on money line picks! I probably need to scale back on my teasers and parlays to 2-3 games max, however, so we can start hitting those at a higher rate.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser.
NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers (+7.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (219 total)
So here's a disclaimer right off the bat - I am a Cavs fan. But I am a self-loathing Cavs fan who usually complains about how bad my team is and has little confidence in them or the organization. That being said - the Cavs look pretty decent this year, right? They certainly pass the eye test and the addition of Evan Mobley through the draft as well as veterans Lauri Markkanen and Ricky Rubio have given this team some depth.
The Cavs are 3-2 ATS this season (and overall) with the second-best margin of +9.8, notching wins against Denver, Atlanta, and the Clippers in their last three games. I am starting to become a believer, and so is the public as this line has already moved from +9 when it opened last night. With the Lakers scuffling a bit and losing the other night to the Thunder, I think the Cavs can certainly keep this one close and maybe pull off the upset. LA is banged up with LeBron still questionable for this one and they've yet to find any real chemistry on offense. I like the Cavs here to keep their momentum going and at least put a scare into the mighty Lakers tonight.
The Pick: Cleveland +7.5, -110 FanDuel Sportsbook
Charlotte Hornets (+6.5) @ Miami Heat (224 total)
So at 4-0 ATS this season, I am going to push my luck and give you two picks today. Miami is the other team besides Cleveland that rates well in my model. We were on them on Wednesday as underdogs and they had a convincing win against Brooklyn. They are a solid, well-rounded team and play a tough style of basketball. While the Hornets have been a nice surprise this year at 4-1, I think they are finally going to be humbled tonight by Miami.
The Heat are 4-1 ATS this season and have the best +/- margin ATS in the NBA at 11.2. They are at home here and both Jimmy Butler and Bam Adebayo are going to be huge matchup problems for Charlotte who have been getting pulverized by wings and big men. I look for this game to be pretty close until the end when Miami clamps down and pulls away. I have them winning by 10-12 points so there's a little wiggle room here at the current spread.
The Pick: Miami -6.5 (good up to -7.5) -105 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Dallas (+1.5) @ Denver (216 total)
Wow, this game total is in free fall already as it was sitting at 219.5 when I started my research this morning and has moved all the way down to 216. There's still some room for profit here, though as you can see the model likes it all the way down to 201. I wouldn't recommend going that low as I will probably bet it as low as 212-213.
So Dallas is on the second half of a back-to-back and could be without Kristaps Porzingis again tonight as he's questionable. They pulled out a comeback last night to beat the Spurs 104-99 but this team really struggled on offense for much of the first half. Tonight they get a Denver team that could be without Nikola Jokic, too, which would certainly hurt their offensive capabilities. This game has the second slowest projected pace and is easily my favorite under on the night.
Unders are a thing here early in the season with 66.8% of the games so far this year going under. Dallas has gone under their total in all five games while the Nuggets have gone under in three of four. All the trends here line up for a low-scoring affair, so jump on this one soon as I could see it continue to drop as the day goes along.
The Pick: Under 216 (good down to 213), -115 DraftKings Sportsbook
So tonight I am going to parlay all three picks together in a teaser! No additional picks here just giving each bet some breathing room and if we hit on all three, we maximize our winnings.
The Picks: Heat, Cavs, Den-Dal under 5 point teaser (+130 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Player Props Matrix
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This is something new that I will be adding to my articles going forward! While player props usually don't come out early enough for me to include in the articles, I can at least give you some data to help make those picks!
We are using only 4-5 games of data here but you can use the chart to find which teams have allowed the most points, rebounds, and assists to each position (compared to the league average). PRA is the total of all three stats - again, compared to league average and PRA bets are some of my favorites! Just be warned that some big performances early on have skewed the numbers a bit!
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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