RADIO
It was an incredibly frustrating Monday for me as I had some bad beats really ruin what I thought were some good picks. The Dallas-Denver game finished at 212 when the Nuggets scored one final basket on the final possession. That game got off to a hot start with both teams shooting well early and even after it slowed down it still inched over the total. The other game I loved was the Suns -3.5. Phoenix had to battle the entire game but took the lead late and was up one when Devin Booker was fouled with around 30 seconds. He's a great free-throw shooter, but he only made 1-2 from the line, and Phoenix led by two. After Minnesota missed their last shot attempt, Jae Crowder was fouled and proceeded to make only 1-2 from the line, too, so Phoenix ended up winning by three - OOF!
The good news is the Warriors pulled through for me last night AND the under hit (if you follow me on Twitter, I posted those bets with my model yesterday). We have almost a full month of data now and I am constantly refining my process and models. It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, November 17th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 22-25
- Against the Spread 12-5
- Over/Under 7-9
- Teasers/Parlays 3-11
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted five spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Chicago Bulls (+1.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (219.5 total)
If you haven't been impressed by the improvement in the Chicago Bulls this year, then I'm not sure what you're watching! This team is LEGIT and is playing a totally different style of basketball this year - and having a ton of success in the process.
Chicago's recent road trip has been really eye-opening for me. Consider that they haven't had their starting center Nikola Vucevic and were able to beat the Clippers and Lakers in L.A. They did drop a game to Golden State, but that's nothing to be ashamed of as I firmly believe the Warriors are the best team in the league right now.
The Bulls are 4-1 over their last five and despite being banged up, their core of DeMar DeRozan, Lonzo Ball, and Zach LaVine are getting it done. Chicago is 10-4 ATS this year and I love the way they are playing right now. They are a better team than Portland and like the situation last night with the Warriors, I will take the better team ML at plus odds when I can get it - even on the road. The recent road success from Chicago gives me some confidence as well.
The Pick: Bulls ML +100 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Los Angeles Lakers (+9.5) @ Milwaukee Bucks (218 total)
With the way things have trended early on this year with games going under at a massive rate, it's tempting to only write up unders. But the reality is that the market is adjusting, and Vegas simply isn't going to lose money on a nightly basis, they're dropping these totals to where there simply isn't much room for error anymore.
At some point, we are going to have to buck the trend, and this game looks like one of the better options to go over tonight. Even with the Lakers having missed LeBron for much of the season and the Bucks have been without Holiday, Lopez and/or Middleton (and Donte DiVincenzo hasn't played yet either), these two teams are projecting for around 223 points tonight.
When you factor in that Khris Middleton is returning tonight and that the Lakers have got a nice boost from Talen Horton-Tucker (22.5 points per game through his first two games), I think we see both offenses improve going forward. The pace is really attractive here as I have this game projected to go 3-4 possessions above league average. The Bucks like to play fast and the Lakers have been playing faster this year, both teams simply need to be more efficient on offense to get us over the total.
The Pick: OVER 218 (good up to 220), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks
Today we tease some underdogs! I like the Wizards, Bulls, and Kings to win and I am banking on my scrappy Cavs to keep it close against Brooklyn. Adding 4.5 points here gives us some cushion for all four teams and despite my really bad record on teasers, I'm taking another shot tonight! This one is going to hit!
The Pick:: WAS/CLE/CHI/SAC +4.5 points teaser (+240 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Here's my team stats matrix for use when betting player props.
For example, Houston allows the most steals per game to opponents this season with 3.26 more than the league average.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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