RADIO
We have officially entered a cold snap this week and I'm reeling a bit after missing on the Lakers-Bucks over (which was tracking well all game until the fourth quarter) and a Bulls loss (in a game in which they led by 15 at the half!)
But there are going to be peaks and valleys, we all know that. Luckily we have nine more NBA games tonight and in betting, you need to have a short memory and be ready to move on to the next set of games.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, November 19th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 22-28
- Against the Spread 12-6
- Over/Under 7-10
- Teasers/Parlays 3-12
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Golden State Warriors (-7) @ Detroit Pistons (209.5 total)
So the key factor that is keeping this spread low (compared to where it should be - at least double digits) is the fact that this is a back-to-back for GSW and that Steph Curry is questionable to sit out tonight. It would make total sense for Golden State to rest him here in a cake matchup against arguably the worst team in the league if he has any kind of injury.
But here's the thing. I think the Warriors are good to enough smash the Pistons even without Steph Curry, which is wild to think about as he's an early front-runner for the MVP this year. The Warriors flirted with disaster last night, trailing the Cavs for much of the game before pulling away with a 36-8 fourth quarter to win by 15. THIS TEAM IS GOOD! And while Steph is in an incredible player, much of their success can also be attributed to their defense and how well their secondary players and bench have played this year.
Now Detroit has improved lately and is actually 3-2 over their last five games, so they could hang in this game. But I'm willing to lay seven points on a team that is superior in every way, even without their superstar. And if Steph DOES play, then this game should get out of hand fast.
The Pick: Warriors -7 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Los Angeles Clippers (-3.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (216 total)
The Clippers are coming off a 12-point loss to Memphis last night, but I'm not going to hold them against them here as Memphis is a solid young team and L.A. was missing a key piece of their rotation in Nicolas Batum. Tonight they get a chance to right the ship and pick up a road win against a woeful New Orleans team that is only 2-14 on the season.
I have the Clippers here by double-digits and I acknowledge that a lot of the metrics for New Orleans don't account for Brandon Ingram's multi-game absence earlier in the year. But the trends line up well for us here, too, as the Pelicans are only 6-10 ATS this season and have lost games by an average margin of 9.6 points this year (second-worst in the league after Houston)
This just feels like a huge mismatch and the spread doesn't reflect that at all. With or without Batum, this Clippers team is significantly better than New Orleans and I think they take care of business on the road with a convincing win.
The Pick: Clippers -3.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Indiana Pacers (+2) @ Charlotte Hornets (214 total)
Some day I will just stop picking overs because it's unders that continue to dominate on a nightly basis. But I have to trust the process, right? The model suggests this total is too low and the fact that Charlotte is only one of six teams to be over .500 (9-7) on overs this season gives me some confidence in this one going over.
The pace in this game is fairly neutral, but we have some pretty poor defenses here as they combine for the second-worst defensive rating on the slate (right behind Toronto-Sacto). I think Indiana's overall offensive efficiency has been a bit suppressed by Brogdon and LeVert both missing stretches early this season. When fully healthy, I think Indiana is an above-average offense and a below-average defense - which is the perfect recipe for an over (and a mirror image of what Charlotte has been this year).
214 total points is right around the average for NBA games so far this season, and I think this total should be a good 3-4 points higher. Let's get an over, shall we?
The Pick: OVER 214 (good up to 216.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
BONUS PICK: Charlotte ML (-135 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Chicago Bulls (+3) @ Denver Nuggets (209 total)
If you consult the model, you'll see that this game isn't the biggest projected difference (that is actually LA-NOP) but it has some strong trends backing it up. This total has already dropped a few points so there is less margin for error than there was a few hours ago, but I still have it pegged for around 205 points.
Denver continues to have the largest +/- against their totals this year at -12.6 and is hitting unders at a 73% rate. We will see if that rate can hold up as Vegas continues to drop their totals. Chicago is a good team, but they could struggle offensively here against a solid Denver defense, especially considering they are missing a key cog in their offense - center Nikola Vucevic. With Vuc this season they have an offensive of 112, but over the last five games without him, they've only managed a 106 rating.
This should be a great, competitive game and one that ends up being a slow, hard-fought, defensive struggle. Both teams love to play half-court offense and this game checks in with the lowest projected pace on the slate at only 96.9 projected possessions.
The Pick: UNDER 209 (good down to 207.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
The Pick:: GSW/LAC/PHO/BKN ML Parlay (+200 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Here's my team stats matrix for use when betting player props.
For example, Houston allows the most steals per game to opponents this season with 3.24 more than the league average.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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