RADIO
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Welcome back! After a weekend of wacky football outcomes (and too many turkey leftovers), I am so ready for the NBA to be back in my life in a big way with a nice 9-game slate tonight. Friday was a success as I finally had a 3-0 day! I am not counting that Denver game because I recommended ONLY if Jokic was in, so I didn't bet it once he was ruled out. My overall record needed that boost and sometimes I still have to remind myself that if we drop those parlays out of there (now 4-15 on those) that I still have a winning record on totals and spreads for the year.
I know I have mentioned this but Vegas is catching on to these totals and dropping the O/U numbers accordingly, giving us less to work with. I still think we can find a few spots to attack here, but a general trend that I am seeing is that there are fewer obvious spots to bet each day, making my job all the harder. That's why I used modeled data and trends and try to find multiple angles for these picks daily.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if you're discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, November 29th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 29-37
- Against the Spread 15-10
- Over/Under 9-12
- Teasers/Parlays 4-15
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I might have to stop betting on Knicks games going over as they failed to go over (but still won) despite scoring 63 first-half points.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Cleveland Cavaliers (+5.5) @ Dallas Mavericks (207.5 total)
Vegas continues to underestimate the Cavs and we must take advantage! Jump on Cleveland as soon as you can this line has already moved a full point in their favor. I know they are on the road, but the Cavs are easily the most improved team in the NBA and are now back to full health (other than losing Collin Sexton for the year).
Cleveland showed why they are a full tier above the bottom-dwellers on Saturday with a convincing 13-point win over the Magic. They're now 10-10 on the season despite not having a big chunk of their rotation healthy and they're an incredible 13-5-2 ATS.
Meanwhile, the Mavs are coming off a disappointing loss to another surprise team on Saturday - the Washington Wizards. Dallas has played a tough schedule recently but has now lost four of their last five games. I think the Cavs can compete here and maybe even win. But all we need them to do is just battle like they have all season and keep it close.
The Pick: Cavs +5.5 (-110 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Oklahoma City Thunder (+2.5) @ Houston Rockets (215.5 total)
I will go on record here that I like this game for DFS as there are some great matchups on both sides of this one, but all the signs are pointing to under here and this total seems inflated. I think it could be due to the fact that Houston just scored over 130 points in an overtime game against the Hornets, but both of these teams are poor offensive teams that have struggled to score all season.
I suppose the argument for the over is that they are both bad defensively, too, and that the increase in pace might make up for the offensive inefficiencies. I'm not buying it. This game projects to be close and instead of it turning into a track meet as Houston did with Charlotte, I expect OKC to slow it down as they play at a much more neutral pace.
These teams met about two weeks ago and played to a 200-point finish. I have this game pegged for about 208 points tonight, and I think the general public is going to want the over just based on the perception of two bad defensive teams and increased pace always meaning more points.
The reality is that the trends back the under much more so than the over as OKC has gone under in six of their 19 games and Houston in 7 of their 19. These two teams have the largest combined net margin (-6.2) on the board. Don't be scared if this total rises, the sharp play is the UNDER!
The Pick: UNDER 215.5 (good down to 213.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
We hit our three-team ML parlay on Friday, so why not try another? These three teams are in the "dead zone" meaning favored by too many points to where you really don't want to bet the spreads, but betting on their individual money lines would not net much in return. I think all three teams win easily tonight unless Jokic returns for Denver and then Miami could have a battle on their hands.
The Pick: UTA/LAC/MIA ML Parlay (+12o DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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The OKC-HOU game I mentioned early has huge potential for defensive stats as the Rockets lead the league is steals allowed while the Thunder give up the most blocks!
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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