RADIO
So I had my first losing night of the season, going 0-3 on Wednesday and I was bummed. Not only do I have my own money on the line, but I know that many people read this article daily and tail these bets, so I know some of you are losing bets alongside me. I take that responsibility very seriously and it caused to me look at both of my models a little closer. I made a few tweaks and the good news is that with more data, we should see some of these outlier numbers start to normalize, too. Predicting the outcomes of sporting events is always going to be unpredictable to a certain degree, but I think things should get slightly more predictable once we see teams get 10+ games under their belt.
We have nine NBA games on the slate tonight and Friday night NBA action is always eventful! Remember, even with 7-8 games worth of data now for each team, we should be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Friday, November 5th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 12-12
- Against the Spread 6-3
- Over/Under 4-3
- Teasers/Parlays 2-6
The season-long record took a hit on Wednesday, but again, if you throw out the parlays - we are still 10-6 picking sides or totals so far this year. Also, I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted four spots where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Memphis Grizzlies (-1) @ Washington Wizards (221 total)
Picking against the spread today is pretty tough. The biggest disparity I see is the Warriors who should be favored by a million against the Pelicans at home, but I am simply not going to recommend laying 9.5 points on an NBA game, especially this early in the season.
We have a few really close spreads tonight and this Memphis-Washington game is one of them. These teams are both 5-3 to start the year and Washington has exceeded expectations to an extent as many people didn't see them being competitive in the Eastern Conference this year.
Memphis is coming off back-to-back close wins against Denver and has impressive wins against the Clippers and Warriors under their belt so picking against them here feels wrong, especially considering that the Wizards are on a two-game losing streak.
But that's exactly what i am going to do. I like Washington here at home. Both teams have been good ATS, but Washington has a 3.4 point positive margin this season while Memphis has a negative differential despite covering in six of eight games. I think the Wizards bounce back here and take advantage of a very porous Memphis defense. It should be close, but I am backing the home team here in what Vegas sees as a pick 'em, while the numbers suggest Washington has been a slightly better team.
The Pick: WAS ML, -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Brooklyn Nets (-10.5) @ Detroit Pistons (211 total)
The Pistons played one of their better offensive games last night...and still only managed to score 98 points! They've only cracked 100 points now in three of their eight games this season! Tonight they will face a Brooklyn team that has been playing incredibly slow this year and hitting in seven of eight games. Detroit has gone under in five of their eight games, as well.
This total SEEMS low, I know and I usually don't like betting the under on the lowest total OR the over on the highest total. But the model projects this game for only around 200 points and it's by far the biggest difference between my projection and the actual total. Just be careful here, just because the model likes it down to 200, it doesn't mean that I do. I'm going to bet it at 211 and probably as low as 208-209.
The Pick: UNDER 211 (good down to 208.5), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
Today we are teasing the two totals that pop in the model (going under in Pistons-Nets and over on NY-MIL) and I am tossing in GSW because everything is pointing towards them just blowing the doors off the Pelicans at home, but laying 9.5 points is never all that much fun. I think of this one as a little bankroll builder at +150 and I'd be willing to put a full unit on it instead of a half unit.
The Picks: NYK-MIL OVER, DET-BRK UNDER, GSW spread - 4.5 point teaser (+150 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Instead of my positional stat matrix, today I included my team stat matrix for your prop betting needs! Each value here is the difference between the stats allowed by each team when compared to the league average.
For example, the Raptors are giving up 1.87 more blocks per game than the average NBA team (hello, Jarrett Allen!)
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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