RADIO
After a rough Wednesday, we bounced back in a big way last night with both the Brooklyn-Detroit under and the Washington ML bets SMASHING and cashing without a doubt. The only hiccup came when the Bucks-Knicks game went under our teaser total of 212 by one point or we would have had the clean sweep. I guess that's why they call them teasers, right?
We have six NBA games today with one early afternoon matinee between Denver and Houston. Remember, even with 8-9 games worth of data now for each team, we should be careful these first few weeks with those bets and stay within your limits. The more data we get, the better I'll feel about the reliability of the models, so let's just have some fun and keep those bets small at first. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Saturday, November 6th, 2021. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 14-13
- Against the Spread 7-3
- Over/Under 5-3
- Teasers/Parlays 2-7
Someone pointed out to me on Twitter that I shouldn't have to count the teasers and parlays against my overall record. If I didn't, we'd be sitting at 12-6 so far this year but alas I am going to continue to count them because I never post a parlay or teaser that I don't play myself or have a lot of confidence in cashing!
Also, I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted only two spots where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Boston Celtics (+4.5) @ Dallas Mavericks (210 total)
It's a really tough card today, I'm not going to lie. The only big favorites are Denver and we aren't going to lay 11.5 points on an NBA game (at least I am not going to).
Boston and Dallas are both teams that I have picked on this year, so this is a tough one for me. I have them pretty evenly matched today and I think the books are accounting too much for Jaylen Brown being out by making Dallas sizeable home favorites. The Celtics are coming off an impressive 17-point win against Miami, who had looked like one of the better teams in the league so far to me. Meanwhile, the Mavericks skated by the Spurs in a narrow one-point win and haven't beaten any good teams yet this year with their wins coming against the Spurs twice, Houston, Toronto, and Sacramento.
Boston is missing Brown, but they still have a solid lineup and I expect Schroder, Smart, Tatum, and Horford to rally the troops here and keep their team in it. Porzingis could return for Dallas but he simply doesn't move the needle for me much. I am backing the road warriors here with the spread and will probably put a half unit on their moneyline as well at +165.
The Pick: BOS +4.5, -110 DraftKings Sportsbook, BOS ML +165 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Over/Under Betting Picks
Los Angeles Lakers (+5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (222 total)
The Lakers being five-point dogs here is a major overreaction to the other night in my opinion, but I will address that a little bit later. The big thing I am looking at here is this total, which by the way has already jumped 2.5 points since I started this article. That tells me I am likely on the right track here with liking the over and that you should hurry and jump on it before it moves too much higher.
The Lakers are playing fast this year and they also have a better offensive rating and worse defensive rating without LeBron James in the lineup. That means Portland is going to score points tonight and I like the Lakers' chances of keeping up with them with a projected pace of 103.7 here, which is easily the highest on the slate.
We have Portland on a back-to-back, too, which means we could see some tired legs and lazy defense. Anthony Davis usually destroys them and Westbrook loves to push the tempo. I like the Lakers to cover and maybe even win, but for now, let's just bet this over.
The Pick: OVER 222 (good up to 224), -110 DraftKings Sportsbook
NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks
So I need to hit a teaser or parlay in the worst way, these picks are dragging down my overall record! With only a handful of games today I am going to keep it super simple.
I like Boston and L.A. as dogs but let's build in some cushion here. FanDuel Sportsbook has improved their teasers and allows you some more flexibility and sometimes better odds, so I built this one today over there and I am putting a full unit on it.
The Picks: Boston + L.A. Lakers - 5 point teaser (+100 FD Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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Instead of my positional stat matrix, today I included my team stat matrix for your prop betting needs! Each value here is the difference between the stats allowed by each team when compared to the league average.
For example, Dallas gives us 3+ more rebounds to opposing teams than the league average.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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