RADIO
It's been an entire week since we've had NBA games to wager on (unless, of course, you were betting on some All-Star weekend outcomes) and I'm sure you are as excited as I am to welcome back NBA basketball to our lives tonight. We have a rather juicy seven-game slate on tap tonight and as always I'll be looking for some spots for us to target in this edition of NBA Best Bets. I just want to thank all of you who have been reading this column and any of my other work this season. Today, the FSWA will announce the winners of their yearly awards and regardless of the outcome, I was thrilled to be a finalist this year for Fantasy Basketball Writer of the Year.
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Thursday, February 24th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 97-88-1
- Against the Spread 55-43-1
- Over/Under 22-33
- Other/Props 20-12
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Atlanta Hawks (+4) @ Chicago Bulls (232.5 total)
This is a tougher slate to make picks on than I initially thought. Our best bets to win outright are all heavy favorites and the two teams I wanted to write up as road favorites to cover (Phoenix and Cleveland) are both without their starting point guards as CP3 is going to be shelved for at least a month and Darius Garland is being rested with ongoing back soreness (because he's been carrying the Cavs all season!)
Let's roll with another team that has been one of my favorites to bet this season in Chicago instead. While those other teams are losing a key piece of their team, the Bulls are getting Zach LaVine back from injury and will have their triumvirate of Lavine-Vucevic-DeRozan intact for the first time since February 11th.
Picking against Atlanta has been hit or miss this year, but I think they are a clear tier below the Bulls in the East and while they should be able to put up plenty of points (this total is huge), I think the Bulls will be able to close with DeRozan (who has been an elite fourth-quarter player over the last month) and pull away. I'm backing the Bulls and laying four points here in the process. Let's hope they make their free throws down the stretch to ice this one.
The Pick: Bulls -4 (-110)
Memphis Grizzlies (-2.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (239 total)
This should be a fantastic game between two young, up-and-coming teams tonight. And it's a great game for props and DFS with a massive 239 total, too. My model has the spread right about the same as Caesar's does here, but I'm being forced into making some picks in close games with a lot of the other games having much bigger spreads and I really don't like laying a lot of points on favorites in the NBA.
I'm going to side with Memphis here on the road to cover. But I'm less confident in them than I am in the Bulls if I am completely honest. The Grizzlies have been one of the best teams ATS this season with a 40-20 record. Their +3.1 differential ATS is second-best (behind Cleveland) and 4.9 point margin of victory is fifth-best.
The Grizzlies have taken two of three from Minnesota in the season series thus far, winning those games by an average of 7.5 points. They lost by 43 points in the other game but I view that result as more of an outlier. I'm dancing with the date that brought me and backing the Grizzlies to cover here and pick up a hard-fought road win (they're 9-2 ATS as road favorites this year.)
The Pick: Grizzlies -2.5 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Check back here later, but I don't have any real strong total plays today. Maybe a team total or something, but for now I'm staying focused on spreads and props.
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
The big news from the All-Star Break was that CP3 is going to miss 4-6 weeks and the Suns are going to be hard-pressed to replace his elite production for the remainder of the regular season. It's time for Devin Booker to step up and take on more point guard duties for Phoenix and we've seen him do it successfully before CP3 arrived last year. Paul was averaging double-digit assists nightly, meaning he was the guy who was distributing the ball on nearly every possession he was on the floor.
Booker is only averaging 4.5 assists so far this year, but that's about to take a big jump. We have only a one-game sample size from last season but he dropped 36-5-8 in his lone game without CP3 last year. His props are all a bit inflated today because the books know he's about to take over, but I still think they are probably too low. In two games against OKC this season, Booker has averaged 34-6-7. I think he soars over 40.5 PRA tonight in a matchup against a weak opponent.
The Pick: Devin Booker over 40.5 PRA (-115)
Speaking of great matchups, the Joker gets one of the best spots for centers in the NBA with the Kings who have been pummeled by big men this year in both scoring and boards. The PRA on Joker here is 50.5 and that's a little rich for my blood, but I do like his P/R prop of 41.5. The only time he faced Sacto this season, Jokic posted 33 points, 10 boards, and 7 assists. That line wouldn't get us to the PRA prop but would clear the P/R prop. I think the Kings can hang around here, which would force Jokic to play his full minutes or more and I have him projected right around 43-44 points/rebounds so I think we are in good shape here.
The Pick: Nikola Jokic over 41.5 points/rebounds (-135)
The Pick: Phoenix/GSW/Cleveland ML Parlay (-114)
Check out some of the boosts and super boosts that Caesar's is offering as pre-packaged parlays.
- Boston/Minnesota/Cleveland/Sacramento ML parlay (+1200)
- Drummond/Towns/Adams all over 9.5 rebounds (+550)
- Chicago SGP - DeRozan and LaVine to score 30+ points each (+525)
- Trae Young, Devin Booker, Nikola Jokic all score 29+ points (+800)
- GSW SGP - Steph Curry and Klay Thompson both to make over 2.5 threes (+150)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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