RADIO
I hope you caught this piece yesterday as I dropped a special Sunday edition of my picks and we had a clean sweep! All three main plays hit as well as my favorite player prop (Tobias Harris PRA) and the money line parlay. That makes two straight sweeps and I'm really hoping we might be hitting our stride now.
It's a lot easier writing this piece the day after I got some stuff right. And I appreciate those who tailed and reached out with thanks or a shout-out. My goal is always to help people win as often as possible and to help educate others as to how I make my daily picks, which is why I always include my data and projections.
It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Monday, February 7th, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 76-71
- Against the Spread 47-38
- Over/Under 21-29
- Other/Props 8-4
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI. But I usually do put out my model on Tuesdays and Thursdays too.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Toronto Raptors (-2) @ Charlotte Hornets (226 total)
The Raptors are the only small favorites on the slate as the next closest would be Miami who is currently -6 but we aren't sure about the status of some key pieces there.
I'm all over the Raptors here as I love this spot for them. There might not be a hotter team in the NBA right now than Toronto as they've won five straight and seven of their last nine games. During that stretch, they picked up a convincing 125-113 win over these Hornets, and what was even more impressive was the fact that they were without their lead guard Fred VanVleet that night.
Toronto is getting healthy and playing some great basketball of late. Over the last two weeks (7-2), they have a 3.7 net rating. Meanwhile, the Hornets are trending in the other direction with a -2.9 net rating over the same span and a 2-6 record. Both teams should have their core pieces today, but I give Toronto a major edge here based on their solid recent play. They've also been pretty solid on the road with a 12-11 mark (13-10 ATS).
VanVleet and Pascal Sikam are playing at a really high level right now, but the emergence of Gary Trent Jr. as a third scoring option has led to some elite offensive performances. Scottie Barnes would probably be the rookie of the year if Evan Mobley wasn't having the year he's having. OG Anunoby is a defensive force and the combo of Precious Achiwura, Chris Boucher, and Khem Birch are solid on the interior.
The Raptors are a better team right now and Charlotte has fizzled out after their hot start. I have Toronto projected to win by five and I'm slamming this bet today as my top-rated bet on the board. We had some luck with adding a player prop yesterday, so I'll toss in Pascal Siakam over 36 points/rebounds/assists as well. He smashed that number in their first meeting and has been averaging almost 40 PRA over these last seven games for Toronto.
The Pick: Raptors -2 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Bonus Pick: Pascal Siakam o/36.5 PRA (-120 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Totals and Other Betting Picks
Golden State Warriors (-12.5) @ Oklahoma City Thunder (211.5 total)
Talk about a mismatch! The poor Thunder are running out of healthy bodies as their star guard Shai Gilegous-Alexander is out again tonight and they could be without Lu Dort again who is listed as questionable. Rookie Josh Giddey is the last talented offensive player they have left and he should have his hands full tonight as OKC has to face one of the best defenses in the league when they host the Warriors.
I'm not too proud to admit that I watched a large chunk of the Thunder's loss to Sacramento on Friday night and it was painful to see them struggle as much as they did. They managed only 103 points against a very poor Sacto defense and lost by 10 points at home to a Kings team that was without De'Aaron Fox. To say this club is "offensively challenged" right now might be too kind. They're terrible. Giddey is the only guy who can get his own shot or create for anyone else and Golden State is going to be all over him.
Without SGA in the lineup, this OKC is averaging only 98 points per game - woof. They are currently implied for 99.5 points and that's just too many points for this matchup. Instead of betting the Warriors and laying those points or betting the under, I'm taking the angle I had on the Rockets yesterday and going under the Thunder team total. I think they'll really struggle here and this one should get ugly.
With no other totals or spreads really popping, I thought I'd add another prop to the mix. Chris Paul and the Suns are facing a wounded Chicago team that is bleeding points to opponents tonight and production to both guards and big men (Embiid had 40 points yesterday). They've allowed the third-most PRA to point guards over the last two weeks in the NBA and CP3 has hit this number in seven of his last nine games. Yes, the Suns are healthy now, but CP3 is the engine that drives that offense and I look for him to have a big night either in the scoring or assist columns (or both) as the Bulls have none of their usual guards available to defend him.
The Pick: Thunder team total UNDER 99.5 (-110 DK Sportsbook)
Bonus Pick: Chris Paul o31.5 PRA (-110 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks
The Pick: Miami/GSW/PHO/UTA ML Parlay (+176 DK Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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