RADIO
Well, I knew yesterday's slate was tough or maybe I just took the hard road by betting on two underdogs who promptly went out and both got throttled at home. But I caught yet another bad beat when Detroit ruled out their best offensive player Cade Cunningham and then finished with 99 points when I needed just one more bucket to hit the over on their team total. Thank goodness for props as those both hit and I still managed to finish up 2-3 on the evening. I hate losing as much as the next person, but sometimes when things go south you are just happy to live to fight another day. Today is a huge day for NBA basketball with twelve games on the board, so I can be a little pickier with my spots here and I plan to be just that!
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, March 16, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 132-125-2
- Against the Spread 67-58-2
- Over/Under 28-40
- Other/Props 37-28
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Atlanta Hawks (+1) @ Charlotte Hornets (239.5 total)
While we have a handful of projected blowouts tonight that I don't want to bet on, there are a few really intriguing close games, too, with Atlanta-Charlotte being one of them. This game should be a shootout and Vegas agrees with a total closing in on 240 points. That makes sense given the offensive talent here and the lack of defense played by either squad.
Picking a side here is tough. I'm trying to make sure I don't have an inherent negative bias towards the Hornets and they've actually played a little better of late. I just think Atlanta is a better team and I have a hard time picking against Trae Young with the absolute heater that he is on right now. Atlanta is without John Collins here, but they have plenty of guys who can step in and fill that void. Capela and Okongwu should be able to do work inside on the Hornets who haven't stopped anyone in the paint this year and Trae is simply on another plane right now. In a game between two pretty evenly matched teams, I'll buck the trends that back the Hornets (they're better ATS this season than Atlanta) go with the underdog here and ride the hot hand of Trae Young.
The Pick: Atlanta ML (+100)
Dallas Mavericks (-2) @ Brooklyn Nets (221.5 total)
Yes, the Nets absolutely drilled the Magic yesterday and won going away. But they did so behind an absolutely insane 60-point outing by Kyrie Irving (take a minute and go watch the highlights...I'll wait). But the Nets are home tonight which means Kyrie has to take a seat, and they'll have to lean on Kevin Durant in this one. Seth Curry is also questionable for this one and he's usually the secondary scoring option when Irving is out. The Nets will have their work cut out for them here with a tough Dallas team that has been one of the best teams ATS in the league this season and has been solid on the road (21-12), too.
I'm going to hit the Dallas ML here and take a little worse odds just in case this one comes down to the final shot. If you're feeling really good about Dallas and think they win going away, then grab them at -2. Luka should do some pretty awesome Luka things tonight and the Nets defense will have a hard time slowing down Dallas, a team that has really gelled nicely since bringing in Spencer Dinwiddie at the deadline.
The Pick: Dallas ML (-130)
Boston Celtics (+2.5) @ Golden State Warriors (220 total)
A battle for the ages here as the Warriors host a Celtics team that has been one of the best in the East over the last month. I have to lean GSW here as they are starting to round back into form with four straight wins and a couple of really nice wins against good teams in there (Bucks and Nuggets).
Andrew Wiggins is questionable, but Draymond Green played off the bench last game and gives this team a much-needed defensive and rebounding presence that they were badly missing during his time out. This game should be physical and fairly low-scoring compared to most on the slate, but I have to roll with the splash brothers and a deeper GSW team here over Boston. The Celtics will scrap, but I see the Warriors covering here at home in this one.
The Pick: Warriors -2.5 (-110)
NBA Totals Betting Picks
Too many of these totals moved too quickly for me to get out in front of them this morning and I continue to take a beating on them overall this season. So I am sticking with spreads and props today!
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 PM Update:
Jakob Poeltl over 25.5 points/rebounds (-135) - a little juice on this bet because Poeltl has hammered the Thunder this season and they are vulnerable to rebounders. Still a nice, safe bet and a solid parlay piece.
Cameron Payne over 1.5 steals (+185) - now these are some odds I like. The Rockets continue to yield the most steals to opponents this season and Payne has two or more in three of his six starts since CP3 went down. His numbers don't look great on the surface (.7 per game) but remember that's in only 20 minutes per game on the season. If he plays thirty minutes tonight I love his chances.
Rudy Gobert over 27.5 points/rebounds (-125) - This is a prop I've bet a lot this season. Vucevic isn't a very physical center and Gobert should play his full comp
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks
The Pick: DEN/SAS/MIN/MIL/PHX money line parlay (+160)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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