RADIO
Things went south on Monday night in a hurry and I was quickly reminded that the range of outcomes in the NBA is only going to continue to widen here in the final weeks. My picks went 3-4 but I really struggled ATS with the T-Wolves being my only hit there as they narrowly lost to the Mavericks but covered. The Miami-Philly under had such great CLV as it ended up down around 212 on most books, yet Harden and Embiid being out somehow led to more offense than I expected and a surprising Sixer victory. Thank goodness for props as I went 2-1 there with the only miss being Al Horford, who despite a great matchup was content letting his other teammates shoot and grab boards. We move onward and upward anyway, undaunted by a subpar night and this Wednesday night slate brings us 11 more NBA games on which to wager.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Wednesday, March 23, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 143-136-2
- Against the Spread 71-64-2
- Over/Under 30-41
- Other/Props 42-32
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks Against the Spread
Atlanta Hawks (-5.5) @ Detroit Pistons (225 total)
If you hate betting on underdogs, then you should probably stop reading this article now and save yourself some time. As I mentioned in the introduction, the NBA is pretty wonky lately in terms of results and while I do my best to follow the data and the trends, there is a certain element of just taking educated guesses and having a feel for who these teams are at this point in the season. The Hawks are a fringe playoff team who can keep up with the top-tier teams only when Trae Young goes nuts shooting the ball. They are also a team that can lose to lower-tier teams when Trae is cold and they're a poor defensive squad. This is who they've proven themselves to be.
Last night Atlanta pulled out the win in the final minutes, but blew a lead in the third quarter and probably should have lost if not for Trae and his MSG heroics. Enter the Pistons, who have quietly been one of the most improved teams in the East this season over the last month. Their recent record doesn't show it (4-6 in last ten games) but they've been very competitive on a nightly basis and have been covering as underdogs just about every time out. I jumped off them the other night when they were big favorites against the Blazers and sure enough they lost, but with Jerami Grant back in the lineup tonight I'll my chances on the Grant-Bey-Cunningham trio doing enough on offense to cover here. They did beat Atlanta a few weeks ago so we know that outcome is very possible.
The Pick: Pistons +5.5 (-110)
New York Knicks (+7.5) @ Charlotte Hornets (226 total)
As I mentioned, the Knicks battled last night against Atlanta despite not having their best player Julius Randle. His status is still up in the air for this game and if you need to know he's playing in order to have the guts to wager on the Knicks side here, I get it. But I think I'm taking my shot on them early in the day here with this many points. Listen, I hate trusting the Knicks as much as anyone but you can't deny they've played better lately and R.J. Barrett is starting to show signs that he's turning the corner and becoming a legit NBA star.
While the Hornets have also been solid of late, I still put them firmly in the same category as the Hawks - a team you can't rule out against better competition but also one that can struggle with lesser teams often. This is just too many points to give the Knicks here, especially if they get a rested Randle back in the lineup.
The Pick: Knicks +7 (-110)
Phoenix Suns (-1.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (236 total)
So I picked the Wolves to win on Monday and sure enough I jinxed them as their win streak was snapped by the Mavs in a tough one. That game could have easily gone the other way and if you want some strong opinions on the officiating in the final minutes, just ask my buddy Kyle Ringstad who felt like his T-Wolves got the raw end of the deal.
Minnesota still has the best recent form of any team in the league despite that loss and they find themselves as home underdogs here to the Suns. The big news out of Phoenix is that Chris Paul is nearing a return, but he will not suit up for the Suns in this one. Phoenix is good without him, but not elite and I'm getting back on Minnesota here as I think they can win this game behind the continued strong play of Karl-Anthony Towns who will be a major problem for Deandre Ayton. With a close spread, I'm skipping the cover and going with the Wolves ML at plus odds.
The Pick: T-Wolves ML (+105)
Brooklyn Nets (-2.5) @ Memphis Grizzlies (236 total)
At first glance, the Nets being favored here makes sense since they get Kyrie Irving back for road games and the Grizzlies are without their star point guard, Ja Morant. Advantage Brooklyn, right? Maybe, but Memphis isn't your ordinary team that crumples without their best player. They are actually 14-2 without Morant this season and sport a crazy +17 net rating. Morant is the engine that drives this team, but they aren't entirely reliant on his offense and they are actually better on defense without him.
Picking against the Nets hasn't gone well for me lately, but the larger sample of games shows us that Memphis is a better all-around team. Brooklyn could be rounding into form at the right time here just in time for the playoffs, but I still won't discount how tough the Grizzlies are. They're at home, they have more depth, and they've proven they can win without Morant. If they can hold Kyrie and Durant in check, they stand a good chance of picking up a tough win here. I'm on them here as a slight underdog.
The Pick: Grizzlies ML (+115)
Philadelphia 76ers (-7.5) @ Los Angeles Lakers (229.5 total) (VOID! LeBron ruled out)
I think I owe King James an apology. I made a video this preseason for fantasy basketball with my top busts and sleepers and LeBron was the cover boy. I expected his production to drop off in a big way with the arrival of Westbrook in LA and I thought we'd see him rest a lot this season, but I wasn't counting on Westbrook being as bad as he's been or Anthony Davis missing so many games. The Lakers have been incredibly disappointing this year by any measure, but LeBron continues to do incredible things.
As much as I hate picking the Lakers (and I have made it a point not to do so for most of the season), they have been more competitive lately and LeBron has been able to put them on his back and pick up some big wins against Cleveland and Toronto - two playoff teams. Being a 7.5 point underdog at home seems warranted at first glance, but the Sixers haven't exactly been great lately either. This is a national TV game and I don't buy into narratives much, but LeBron is a proud individual who is likely going to put on a show tonight with Harden and Embiid in town. I don't know if they win, but I think the Lakers can cover this spread and keep it close.
The Pick: Lakers +7.5 (-110) THIS PICK IS VOIDED, LEBRON IS OUT!
NBA Totals Betting Picks
The first you'll notice about the projections today is that there are no real big discrepancies between my model and Vegas, at least for now. With how tough totals have been I am usually looking for a five point gap or greater and there simply aren't any games that interest me as of right now. That could change by this afternoon/evening so I will update this section later accordingly.
Attention New York, Iowa, and Tennessee residents!! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with Caesar's Sportsbook! Get up to a $1500 deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access if you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win on Caesar's.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 PM Update:
Trey Lyles over 1.5 threes (+120) - Lyles has hit two treys in each of his last three games and should start again tonight (and for the foreseeable future with Sabonis likely shut down for the season)
Jalen Brunson over 30.5 PRA (-125) - Luka Doncic is out tonight and Brunson has been phenomenal for Dallas this season when filling in as the primary facilitator. I like Spencer Dinwiddie over 32.5 here, too, but Brunson's prop is a few stats lower so I'll take him instead. Bet them both against the terrible Rockets defense with some confidence.
Tyus Jones over 6.5 assists (-130) - Jones will start at PG for the injured Ja Morant. In his last three spot starts, he's averaged 9 assists per game and this game against Brooklyn should be a high-scoring affair. Kyrie is known for his offense, but not his defense and I expect Jones to play well and rack up some dimes.
Cade Cunningham over 33.5 PRA (-105) - You can take a hard look at his assist prop here too at plus odds on 6.5, but I like the safety of PRA here as he's a solid rebounder, too, and this gives us some stats to fall back on if his shot isn't falling. Cade has been terrific over the last several weeks and posted 28-6-10 against Atlanta in their last meeting. He's gone over this number in six of his last ten games.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
The Pick: Spurs/Heat/Mavs ML line parlay (+115)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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