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The NBA regular season has exactly two weeks left and while some teams are packing it in and shutting down players, other teams are still battling it out and vying for playoff seeding. The top six seeds are ever so important this season as teams try to avoid finishing seventh through tenth and having to play in the newly-added play-in tournament. Finishing seventh or eighth means you have to win at least one more game to get in while finishing ninth or tenth would mean having to win two games to grab the 8th seed. We should start to see those playoff scenarios solidify here soon and targeting games that mean something to at least one of the teams involved is something I will have an interest in for betting purposes while I'll also be likely avoiding games between teams who have been virtually eliminated.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Sunday, March 27, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 152-143-2
- Against the Spread 74-66-2
- Over/Under 31-42
- Other/Props 47-36
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
One thing you may notice is that I added an AVG +/- column and an ATS margin column. These columns track the season-long trends of the margin by which teams are covering (or not covering) the spread as well as the margin by which they have been going over or under their totals.
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NBA Betting Picks
Philadelphia 76ers (+5) @ Phoenix Suns (229 total)
Chris Paul is back and the NBA Death Star we have to come to know as the Phoenix Suns are once again fully operational! Sorry, for the Star Wars reference but I'm not sorry because it's the greatest movie franchise ever - period. Anyways, back to basketball and this is definitely one of the more compelling games on the slate as the defending Western Conference champs host the Sixers and their duo of Luke Skywalker and Han Solo...I mean Joel Embiid and James Harden.
If this game was a Star Wars movie, I think it's more "The Empire Strikes Back" than "Return of the Jedi" (you really thought I'd end the Star Wars thing, didn't you?) If you've never seen the Empire Strikes Back then may God have mercy on your soul, but that's the one where the bad guys win! Listen, the Suns are really, really good and now that their veteran leader CP3 is back there's simply not a better, more balanced basketball team in the league (though the Grizzlies have built themselves in the Suns' image and they're going to be a force to be reckoned with in the postseason, too).
Phoenix has reeled off seven straight wins and has won nine of their last ten. The return of CP3 helped them put away one of their biggest challengers in the West last Thursday as they dumped Denver 140-130. They do it with defense, they do it with ball movement on offense, and they do it with depth as their bench is made up of guys who have made big contributions are various times this season. They're a little banged up right now with Cameron Johnson and JaVale McGee out, but they're simply a better all-around team than the Sixers both in the full season sample and over the most recent stretch of games where the Sixers have labored at times to put teams away.
I have the Suns pulling away late here and covering for us. They beat Philly by exactly five points earlier this season, this time they'll do it by double digits as Lord Paul and Darth Booker continue their reign as the top team in the empire (enough with the Star Wars shit, Dan, geez!)
The Pick: Suns -5 (-110)
Los Angeles Lakers (+3) @ New Orleans Pelicans (229 total)
You're going to wonder if I have been kidnapped and forced to write this against my will because I am about to recommend two favorites in a row after being an underdog guy for the better part of the last week. Let's unpack a few things before we really get into this one.
- The Lakers suck. They are a bad team by literally any definition or possible metric.
- LeBron is questionable for this one after missing their last game on Friday night.
- The Pelicans (even without Ingram) have been a pretty solid team since C.J. McCollum arrived.
- The winner of this game will be in sole possession of the 9-seed in the West.
I'm not sure when the sense of urgency for the Lakers will kick in and if LeBron will play today as a result of it. Or maybe he'd rather not be in the playoffs and have to win two games just to face the Suns, I don't know. But the Spurs could pass either team here and grab the 10th seed in the final few weeks and this is a pretty big game if either team really does in fact care about making the postseason.
Yeah, the Pelicans played yesterday and dropped a close one to the aforementioned Spurs, but I still give them the edge here whether or not LeBron plays. The only time these teams met so far this year was about a month ago when New Orleans handled the Lakers 123-95. Yes, Ingram did play in that game, but New Orleans has shown they can still get it done offensively without him as guys like Jose Alvarado, Jaxson Hayes, and Devonte Graham have stepped up.
I'm adding a secondary bet here as well as I expect the Pelicans to go over their 116.5 team total. The Lakers have allowed 123 points to opponents over their last ten games and I have New Orleans projected right around 120 in this one.
UPDATE: Brandon Ingram is going to play now (which is great!) but Jonas Valanciunas and McCollum are both now questionable. If CJ is out and LeBron is in, that takes me off this one a bit but we might not get that info until close to game time.
The Pick: Pelicans -3 (-110)
Bonus Pick: Pelicans Team Total over 116.5 points (-110)
Utah Jazz (+2.5) @ Dallas Mavericks (220.5 total)
This is a game that I had a tough time projecting and the range of outcomes here is likely greater than I'd like to admit. Here are some of the important factors I considered before finally making my prediction.
- The Jazz have dropped three games in a row and continue to be without Bojan Bogdanovic.
- The Mavericks are coming off a 20-point loss to Minnesota and are 2-3 over their last five games against some pretty quality opponents (other than Houston).
- Utah leads the season series 2-1, but Dallas has won the most recent meeting.
- Both teams have identical 45-29 records and are tied for the #4 seed in the West with Utah owning the tie-breaker with the better head-to-head record.
The Mavericks have been the better team ATS this season and are pretty solid at home. The trends support Dallas here, but I keep getting Utah as favorites just about no matter what I tried with my data sets both long-term and short-term.
I have Utah projected to win here and even I am off there, I think the worst-case scenario is that this game is a total toss-up. In those types of games, I am always going to side with the underdog and the Jazz are a good team even if they've struggled at times this season. I've learned over the year never to count Dallas out and we know Luka is capable of some amazing performances. Dinwiddie and Brunson have been really solid, too. But I lean Utah here as I think their advantage inside with Gobert/Whiteside is a pretty big deal (pun intended) and Donovan Mitchell can go toe-to-toe with Luka any day. Utah keeps coming at you with Conley, Clarkson, and their own blue-collar guys like Royce O'Neale and Rudy Gay.
I'm rolling with the Jazz here and I'm adding a secondary bet on the under as this game is the biggest projected difference in my model and the current total. I have it around nine points under the total and I think we see this one end up being a slugfest with a playoff-type atmosphere.
The Pick: Utah ML (+115)
Bonus Pick: Under 220.5 points (-110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
3:00 PM UPDATE
Chris Paul over 9.5 assists (-135 DK sportsbook) - CP3 didn't miss a beat in his first game back from injury and dropped 13 dimes in 30 minutes against Denver. If he's cleared for 30+ minutes then this number is far too low considering he averages over 10 assists per game. He had 12 against Philly earlier this year and I expect him to get right back to running the offense every possession he's in the game today.
Kyrie Irving over 3.5 threes (+105 DK Sportsbook) - Kyrie dropped 50 on Charlotte just recently before scoring 60 against Orlando a week later. This prop burned me last night but Brooklyn blew out Miami and Kyrie didn't need to do much. He was averaging double-digit attempts over his previous four games and remember this is his home debut tonight in Brooklyn (if you like narratives and stuff!)
Jordan Poole over 23.5 points (-110 DK Sportsbook) and Klay Thompson over 3.5 threes (-125 DK) - I went back and forth on this one and was tempted to go over on the Poole threes (also 3.5) which is still a solid bet. The juice on the Poole o4.5 assists is nuts as it's up over -200 on DK right now and FanDuel already moved it to 5.5. Poole has scored 24 or more in all five games since Curry went down, while Klay is coming off a 9-three pointer performance in which he attempted 16 shots from behind the arc.
Deni Avdija over 5.5 rebounds (-130 DK Sportsbook) - This is a young guy who I have loved watching this season. He's finally getting a lot of playing time with Kyle Kuzma out and the Wizards just playing their young talent and he's producing. His rebounding is a bit sporadic, but he averages five a game in only 24 minutes per contest. If he keeps playing closer to 30 minutes then he should be grabbing 6-7 rebounds quite often and he just snagged 10 in his last game.
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NBA Teaser/Parlay Betting Picks
The Pick: Brooklyn/Boston/GSW ML line parlay (+145)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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