RADIO
Last night featured three really great games and I hope you take a minute to realize just how good these first-round games have been so far. I was sweating the Celtics in the first half, but sure enough, they found a way to battle back and win (and cover) in the second half. Al Horford fouled out before he could hit his prop and Marcus Smart also missed his, which hurt the overall record for the evening a bit. The Sixers won a thrilling game in OT as Joel Embiid hit a three in the closing seconds to secure the win (and the cover!) and put the Sixers up 3-0 in their series.
The Bulls pulled out a huge win on the road in the nightcap 114-110. I didn't bet this spread but I did have the over at 225. Grayson Allen (an 86% free throw shooter) missed a free throw at the end of the game (meaningless towards the outcome of the game) but it cost us the push on the total. Bad beat there, but nothing you can do about it but hope the next break goes your way.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 26-28
- Against the Spread 9-10
- Over/Under 3-4
- Player Props 14-14
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NBA Betting Picks for 4/21
Memphis Grizzlies (-1.5) @ Minnesota Timberwolves (236.5 total)
Game two was marred by way too many fouls being called on both teams, but the Grizzlies were still easily the better team and bounced back from a game one loss by winning game two by 28 points. Game three is crucial to both teams' chances of taking the series with things knotted up at 1-1. I'm going to keep backing the same horse that I brought to the dance (that seems like a mixed metaphor) and roll with the Grizzlies on the road here (wait, those are bears and not even horses!)
All kidding aside, Memphis was the best team in the league ATS this season and third-best on the road. They're only favored by a bucket, but I have the true line closer to four points tonight. Memphis played 13 players in Tuesday night's win and only two of those guys were blowout subs in the final four minutes. Steven Adams has been a non-factor in this series, but Brandon Clark and Xavier Tillman combined for 26 points and 10 boards off the bench in his stead. The Grizzlies can beat you in so many ways and I will usually side with the balanced team with more options than the team that leans so heavily on their stars.
Minnesota is the latter and they really struggled with KAT being in foul trouble most of the game. Anthony Edwards came back to Earth with only 20 points and D'Angelo Russell was held to just 11 points on 3-11 shooting. Malik Beasley is the only other guy who is a shooter/scorer on this team with the rest of the guards and bigs being mainly role players. I think Minnesota has played their best and likely worst games in this series and we should likely expect something in the middle as far as their output going forward. But if both teams play well, Memphis is simply better, deeper, and battle-tested. This total has dropped enough since it opened that I'm staying away for now.
The Picks: Grizzlies -1.5 (-110 DK)
Dallas Mavericks (+6) @ Utah Jazz (210.5 total)
This game is so hard to break down until we know what Luka Doncic's status is going to be. He's been labeled a "game-time decision" so I am not sure at what point we will actually know his status. If he goes through shootaround in the morning, then I'd have to think he's more probable than doubtful, but it's a total guessing game there until we have some concrete information that he's going to play.
The good news for Dallas is they won game two without him thanks to 41 points from Jalen Brunson and an unreal (and not likely repeatable) 8-11 shooting night from downtown from Maxi Kleber. I had Dallas on Monday night so I was thrilled when they pulled off the win and covered their team total, but I'm not sure they can do it twice in a row, especially now that they're on the road. So as it stands without Luka, I would probably side with Utah here.
However, if Luka were to play I would be all over the Mavericks +6 and their money line. If he plays, I am going to assume he's healthy and not limited because they would be dumb to force him out there if he's still not 100% with game four being Saturday and an extra two days of rest available.
I can't really even bet this total without the Luka news. If we get some early news I will update the article and tweet out my official bet.
The Pick: NO BET, FOR NOW, CHECK BACK THIS AFTERNOON
Golden State Warriors (-2) @ Denver Nuggets (224 total)
I have to give the Nuggets one final chance here. I will feel really dumb if I flip over to the Warriors only to see the Nuggets get a big win at home in game three. I did flip my pick last night to the Sixers in their game three and they barely pulled out a win over a scrappy Toronto team that was missing one of their best players.
The Warriors have been impressive in this series. I know Denver isn't the strongest defensive team, but Golden State is shooting the ball at a 53% clip through the first two games and averaging 124.5 points on offense. When you have Jordan Poole, Klay Thompson, and Steph Curry all shooting well at the same time that's going to happen I suppose. But can they really keep up that offensive efficiency? Denver has been competitive in these games despite the final scores, it just seems like every time they make a run the Warriors are there to hit a few big shots to counter it.
I simply won't count out Nikola Jokic or this Denver squad at home. Draymond has been in Jokic's head, but he will respond tonight and won't get sucked into that nonsense again. Mike Malone is a good coach and Denver has shown some resiliency this season. I'm looking at the bigger picture of what these teams have been this season and if we do that, then Denver has a puncher's chance tonight as they're more evenly matched here than you'd think after having seen the results of the first two games.
The Pick: Nuggets ML (+110)
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Ja Morant over 7.5 assists (-145 DK) - After dropping 10 dimes in only 29 minutes in game two, this prop is already juiced up a bit. Morant had eight in game one, too, even with many of his teammates shooting poorly and failing to hit shots that would have become assists for Morant. This is one of the safer props on the board tonight.
Rudy Gobert over 15.5 rebounds (-120 DK): Gobert has 17 boards in each of the first two games and a massive size advantage over any of the Mavericks big men. He's playing 36 minutes a game in this series instead of 30 minutes, which based on his per-minute averages projects him for about 16.5. I like him to go over again tonight.
Will Barton over 24.5 PRA (-125 DK): I'm going back to Barton here. He crushed this number in game one but then shot poorly in game two (5-15 from the field) and wound up just one stat shy. The important thing is he continues to log the most minutes for Denver and is getting the second-most shots up after Jokic.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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