RADIO
It was a great day of NBA basketball yesterday and that's not just because I won more bets than I lost either. All the games were pretty tight right up to the end and I nearly pulled off the sweep on picking sides until the Grizzlies lost in the late game. Dallas should have won their game, but at least they covered. Props went 2-2 on the day and Scottie Barnes made a surprise appearance that kind of ruined my OG prop, though he still could have gotten there had he played better.
Now we get four more games on this Sunday slate and there are no shortages of angles to bet either. Each of these series features the higher seed leading 2-1 going into Game Four with the exception of the Golden State-Denver series where the Warriors are up 3-0 and the Nuggets are facing elimination. We are getting larger sample sizes of how teams are playing in the playoffs versus the regular season and of course more data from games in which they are facing each other too. Let's see where we can make some money today, shall we?
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 36-38
- Against the Spread 15-13
- Over/Under 3-5
- Player Props 16-20
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NBA Betting Picks for 4/23
Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) @ Chicago Bulls (218.5 total)
Despite the fact that I think the Bucks probably win Game Four, I am resisting the urge to bet the spread in this one. I mean, Milwaukee absolutely demolished the Bulls in Game Three, but that was their first really convincing win of the series. This is a crucial game for Chicago as they are basically dead in the water if they go back to Milwaukee down 3-1 and I am wondering if we see the same sense of urgency from them here in Game Four that we saw from Milwaukee in Game Three.
I will probably have the Bucks ML in some parlays today and maybe a small hedge on the Bulls just in case, but the real angle here is the game total. It continues to drop each game as this series has failed to live up to the expectations of being as high-scoring as expected. The under has hit in the first three games, but the regular season data still points overwhelmingly to the over. If we get a competitive game as we did in Game Two where the teams combined for 224 total points, I think we hit this over tonight. The 13-point difference in my model to the actual total is obviously a bit inflated and starting tomorrow, I switch over to more playoff data than regular season data, but each of the four models has this game going over and I think we buck the series trends of unders today with a higher-scoring affair.
The Picks: OVER 218.5 total points (-110)
Golden State Warriors (-4) @ Denver Nuggets (225 total)
I've given up on putting any faith in Denver after they've broken my heart multiple times already in this series. I had the Nuggets as a potential Round One upset over Golden State, but they've failed to play up to their full potential and I badly underestimated how well Golden State would play with Steph Curry coming off the bench and a healthy Draymond Green.
This spread is a bit sticky for my liking, similarly to the first game. Denver could rally to win game four like we saw Toronto do yesterday, but I don't have much faith in them doing that at this point. The Warriors have just been so good on offense that no matter how well Denver plays, it's hard to see them overcoming the barrage of buckets from Curry, Poole, Thompson, and company.
As with the Bucks, I'll probably put GSW in my money line parlay today, but I don't really want to lay four points here with the Nuggets being a strong underdog. I'm angling for the over in this one, too, but for a different reason.
The data doesn't point to an over, in fact, my projections think this total is just about right. However, the series history says otherwise as all three of the first games have gone over so far. It just feels like the offensive efficiency that both teams are playing with and the mismatches that both teams have (Jokic inside, Golden State against Denver guards) are too much for the opposing defense to handle. I'm backing the over at 225 and hoping we continue to see a lot of scoring in Game Four.
The Picks: OVER 225 total points (-110)
Miami Heat (-2) @ Atlanta Hawks (221 total)
I was really upset to see Miami completely blow it late in Game Three. Hats off to Trae Young and the Hawks for coming back and Trae made a really tough shot that ended up being the game-winner. But Miami was very out of character in those closing minutes as they settled for some bad shots and made some poor decisions that opened the door for an Atlanta come back.
Perhaps the Jimmy Butler heroics of Game Two were a bad thing in a way because the Heat looked entirely too reliant on him to close out Game Three. That was also due to Kyle Lowry leaving this game early with a hamstring injury too. Miami lists all their players as questionable, but Lowry could really be in jeopardy of missing this game which is certainly a bit concerning for the Heat.
For the Hawks, they could get Clint Capela back for this one, which would be helpful as they could definitely use his help in the paint. If Lowry is out and Capela is in, that tips the scales a bit more towards Atlanta and gives me some pause when making this pick.
For now, I am still firmly in the Heat camp. They're the better team and I'm willing to give them a pass for the Game Three collapse for now. I'm once again betting this money line to avoid a loss on a one-point win and taking a little bit worse odds in the process.
The Pick: Miami ML (-130)
Phoenix Suns (-2.5) @ New Orleans Pelicans (215.5 total)
The Suns barely covered the spread in Game Three, but I was happy to get that win any way I could take it. And Phoenix has a chance to create some space here in Game Four with a win tonight. I'm sure they'd like some extra rest before the second round considering that everyone is being asked to play more and do more with Devin Booker out.
As expected, CP3 and Deandre Ayton have taken on the majority of the scoring responsibility on offense in Booker's absence. They both scored 28 in Game Three with Mikal Bridges chipping in 17 and JaVale McGee added 15 points off the bench.
The Pelicans have been similarly dependent on two players with Brandon Ingram and C.J. McCollum accounting for 64 of their 111 points in Game Three. After a dominant Game One, Jonas Valanciunas has disappeared and the Pelicans have cut his minutes and given them to Larry Nance Jr. and Trey Murphy III by playing small.
I'm back on the Suns here again, are you surprised? Chris Paul is still good enough to put this team on his back and if New Orleans is going to play small, then DeAndre Ayton is going to make them pay for it. The Suns are eventually going to get more from their wings (I mentioned them last time, but Crowder and Johnson in particular haven't done much on offense). Phoenix shot only 4-26 from deep in Game Three and they simply aren't going to shoot that poorly again. I like the Suns to make a statement tonight and pour it on the Pelicans with a big win.
I also like the over here (OMG, three overs today - in playoff games?). Game One went under, but that was the game where Phoenix led comfortably throughout and took their foot off the gas a little. Games Two and Three were more competitive and saw New Orleans ditch Jonas and play smaller (and faster) on offense. The last two games have cruised over this total and I think we see that trend continue in this series.
The Picks: Suns -2.5 (-110), OVER 215.5 total points
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
I'm skipping the explanations here today as I am pressed for time and I have more props on the board than usual. All of my props are vetted through player projections, series history, there's ample statistical evidence backing them, no hunches here!
C.J. McCollum over 5.5 assists (-160)
DeAndre Ayton over 31.5 points/rebounds (-125)
Bobby Portis over 9.5 rebounds (-105)
Nikola Vucevic over 2.5 3PM (+120)
Jordan Poole over 2.5 3PM (-160)
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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