RADIO
We are back to three-game slates this week and at some point probably some two gamers as the Sixers, Warriors, Heat, Bucks, and Celtics all have a chance to finish their series in the next few days with a win.
Sunday was a mixed bag of results. I did hit the over in two of three games, but the Suns lost in the late game and my player props were not very good overall. I'm still looking for a sweep in order to get this record back up over .500 but I have to remind myself that we are only 10 days into the playoffs and we still have a few more months to go!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 39-43
- Against the Spread 16-14
- Over/Under 5-6
- Player Props 18-23
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NBA Betting Picks for 4/25
Boston Celtics (+1) @ Brooklyn Nets (220 total)
Can the Celtics close out this series in Brooklyn or will we see the Nets rally in game four to keep their season alive like we saw both Toronto and Denver do over the weekend?
I think they can and the fact that they are plus money to win here despite winning the first three games of the series is a bit insulting. I have been banging the drum for Boston the entire series and they've covered in both games two and three after needing a buzzer-beater to win game one.
Boston is simply better. They're getting something out of all their players, even marginal rotation players like Daniel Theis who stepped up in game three. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum are too much for this Brooklyn defense and the Celtics defense has been frustrating Kevin Durant all series long.
I don't think the Nets have enough to beat this team, Boston is too good, and they're not likely to let up here in game four. It's going to take a massive game from Kyrie or KD (or both) to get Brooklyn a win and I don't see it happening tonight. No amount of narratives can move me off my pick, I want Boston to win at plus odds. Give me the better team all day long, no questions asked.
The Picks: Celtics ML (+100)
Toronto Raptors (+7) @ Philadelphia 76ers (209.5 total)
We go from Brooklyn to Philly for another potential elimination game and I think we see a similar result. The Sixers did let down a little in game four, which I predicted and that coincided with a really gutsy performance from Pascal Siakam and the Raptors.
The Raptors lost Fred VanVleet for the second half, but held on to pick up the win in game four. The bad news here is that FVV could miss tonight's game with that nagging hip injury and the Sixers get Matisse Thybulle back at home after he had to miss both games in Toronto due to being unvaccinated.
I just think the Raptors are going to run out of gas at some point. Their core players are logging 45 minutes per game and they have to play nearly flawlessly in order to beat a better Philly squad. The NBA can be a war of attrition at times, and Philly simply has more soldiers. I look for the Sixers to close things out tonight and get back to what they were doing in games one and two when they dominated Toronto.
I don't like laying this many points, but I think the Sixers win going away here and I don't want to mess with this total. It's the least confident pick of the three games for me, only because of how scrappy the Raptors have been the last two games. But Philly wins and covers tonight.
The Pick: Sixers -7
Utah Jazz (+3) @ Dallas Mavericks (213 total)
I was pretty steamed at Dwight Powell for missing two free throws in the final seconds of game four. If he makes even one of those, the Mavericks extend their lead to two points, but he missed both and Utah came down and took the lead for good on an alley-oop from Donovan Mitchell to Rudy Gobert.
You have to give credit to Mitchell for making that play and not forcing up a shot, but Dallas had that game and let it slip away, and they have to know it.
The series is knotted 2-2 and now heads back to Dallas. Luka Doncic played 33 minutes in his return and looked fine to me, posting 30 points, 10 boards, and four assists on 11-21 shooting. The Mavs have been the better team thus far in this series and the Vegas line is finally accounting for that as they're three-point favorites at home. I have the true line as high as Mavs -5.5 and I'll be rolling tonight with Dallas as I think they win and cover in game five.
I'm not sure if it can be quantified, but Dallas just has a certain quality about them that has lured me in and I continue to maintain that Utah is considerably overrated and likely to end up with the legacy of "really good regular season team that could never make a run in the playoffs."
I'm also back on the under in this one. We saw Luka's return slow the Mavs way down on offense and game four only finished at 199 total points. This total accounts for Luka's offensive impact as a scorer and passer, but it doesn't account for how slow Dallas likes to play through him in the half-court and these playoff games have been so much slower in terms of pace than in the regular season. I finally got my game total adjusted today to reflect playoff pace and scoring and it's saying to slam the under here.
The Picks: Mavericks -3 (-110), UNDER 213 total points
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
James Harden over 9.5 assists (-130): Harden has gone over this twice in the series and had 9 dimes in one other game. He has averaged 10.5 since coming to Philly in the trade and if the Sixers play like we know they can on offense, I think he clears this one with ease.
Reggie Bullock (-130) and Dorian Finney Smith (+115) over 2.5 threes: The two Mavs wingers make the majority of their shots from behind the arc. Both guys hit three long balls in game four and the return of Luka Doncic to the point guard position is going to be a boon to their chances at getting open looks. Bullock is probably the safer of the two based on his volume, but his odds also reflect that.
Bruce Brown over 24.5 PRA (-125): Brown had yet another incredible performance in game three and he's been the one role player who has stepped up for the Nets in a big way. His PRA is still way too low for how involved this guy is in their offense. The scoring was a bit fluky, but his boards and assists are for real and not going anywhere.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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