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After a sub-par night of bets on Tuesday night, I needed a day off yesterday to clear my head, get some rest, and if we are being honest - focus on baseball for a bit. Round one is winding down as the Heat clinched their series on Tuesday while the Bucks and Warriors both cashed their tickets to round two last night.
Tonight we get game six in all three series. Each road team leads 3-2 and are narrow favorites. Which of these teams clinch tonight and which underdogs stay alive for game seven? I have some thoughts on that and some betting angles on each game as well as some player props, too. Without further ado, let's dive into what will likely be my final round of picks for the first round of the NBA playoffs.
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Postseason Record 46-50
- Against the Spread 18-17
- Over/Under 7-7
- Player Props 21-26
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NBA Betting Picks for 4/28
Philadelphia 76ers (-1.5) @ Toronto Raptors (210.5 total)
What are the Sixers doing? They didn't just fail to close out the Raptors at home in game five, they got bludgeoned badly in a 103-88 defeat at the hands of this Toronto team that just won't go away. You have to give the Raptors credit, they're doing it with defense and some amazing all-around games from Pascal Siakam. Toronto has been able to slow down Joel Embiid and James Harden in this series and after two convincing wins from Philly in games one and two, it's been a brutal, physical, ugly, sloppy series since.
At some point, I still feel like Philly gets it done. Will it be tonight? I hope so because I am going to bet on them. I will say this, they are my least confident pick on the evening, however, I do think they come away with a win. Toronto is still likely going to be without Fred VanVleet and if this is indeed a war of attrition, Philly has more healthy players remaining. All they have to do is win by two points to cover and the Sixers have four starters on offense who are capable of scoring the basketball. I think we see either Embiid or Harden breakthrough for a big game and at least one of Tobias Harris or Tyrese Maxey regain their form from earlier in the series, too.
I think it's probably a close, lower-scoring game as the last three games of this series have been, but that the Sixers pull it out down the stretch. I'm backing the road favorites here and taking the under, too, as this one sets up to be another slow-paced game with both teams running half-court sets and focusing on defense rather than offense.
The Picks: Sixers -1.5 (-110), UNDER 210.5 total points
Phoenix Suns (-2) @ New Orleans Pelicans (214 total)
The Suns got back on track in game five on Tuesday night, just as I had finally embraced the Pelicans as worthy underdogs with a big spread, too. Now Phoenix can close out the Pelicans here in game six with some renewed optimism that Devin Booker could be ready to return in round two. Booker has technically not been ruled out of tonight's game yet, but it's much more likely he doesn't rush back from his injury unless Phoenix loses and is forced into an elimination game this weekend.
I don't see that happening. While New Orleans has played one heck of a series for an 8-seed, I see Chris Paul and friends wrapping this one up tonight. The future is bright for the Pellies if they can keep this core intact and get Zion Williamson back next year, but the Suns future is now and we finally saw them play the type of playoff basketball that we knew they were capable of in game five. CP3 and Deandre Ayton were effective all night long and Mikal Bridges had a massive game with 31 points and four blocked shots, as he played nearly the entire game (46 minutes).
Phoenix just has too much experience and too much cohesiveness to let down here. I think we see a similar outcome tonight to what we saw Tuesday night and a relatively boring, convincing win from the Suns. Perhaps the Pelicans keep it a little closer, but the Suns should cover this spread with ease. This is the one game total I am avoiding as I went over last time and it bit me. The model still likes the over here, but it's the one total I have less confidence in than the others so I will just stay away.
The Pick: Suns -2(-110)
Dallas Mavericks (+1) @ Utah Jazz (209.5 total)
Am I really going to pick all three favorites to clinch tonight? You're damn right I am! Dallas had their most convincing victory of the series yet on Monday night as they crushed the Jazz 102-77. This team has been one of the best stories of the postseason. They were able to grab a 2-1 series lead without their star player, Luka Doncic, and they continue to show that defense and teamwork can win in the league.
The Mavs are firing on all cylinders and I just don't think the Jazz have any answers. Their lone offensive star, Donovan Mitchell, is banged up but will play tonight. When he's not going well, they struggle to score and have had to give Jordan Clarkson bigger minutes as this series goes along because Mike Conley has been such a non-factor.
Rudy Gobert is a great rebounder and a pretty darn good defender, but he's very limited on offense and gets most of his points on offensive rebounds or lobs. Bojan Bogdanovic is a deadly shooter, but can't really get his own shot and is better off the catch and shoot. The point is that Dallas has athletes at all five positions and has figured out how to guard this Utah team. Meanwhile, Utah ends up with mismatches when they try to defend as no one can guard Luka, Gobert has to go out to the three-point line to guard Powell or Kleber, and the Mavericks guards Brunson and Dinwiddie have proven to be tough covers for Mitchell, Clarkson, and Conley.
I think Utah competes here, this won't be a blowout. But my money is on Dallas for sure. They're better and frankly, they should have already ended this series if not for Dwight Powell's missed free throws in game four. I'm also on the under here as I see this one being another low-scoring, super slow-paced affair.
The Picks: Mavs ML (-110), UNDER 209.5 total points
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NBA Prop Bet Picks
Dorian Finney-Smith over 2.5 3PM (+110): DFS has been relatively efficient from downtown in this series, shooting it 13-34. He's made three long balls in three of the five games and made two in the other two. We hit this prop at plus odds last time and I like it here again tonight. The Luka factor is a big deal here as he is able to create good looks for his shooters and Utah has struggled to defend Dallas behind the arc.
Luka Doncic over 9.5 rebounds (+115): I like getting these guard rebound props and we had some success with Morant on his the other day. Luka has 10 and 13 rebounds in each of the two games he's played in this series and that was in only 32 minutes per game. Assuming this game is close, he should play 35+ and I think he soars over this number.
Jonas Valanciunas over 12.5 rebounds (-140): Jonas has hit this number in all but one game and the good thing here is that his minutes have returned to normal after he was cut to around 26 minutes per game in games two and three of the series. The Pelicans would be foolish not to utilize his size inside, the matchup with Ayton in the paint is one of the places they can win.
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NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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