RADIO
Welcome...to the Jungle! That is the NBA betting landscape currently as we have only six days of regular-season games remaining. There are still teams with plenty to play for in terms of seeding, but we know for the most part which ten teams are going to qualify for the postseason at this point with the Lakers being the one exception should they win tonight and go on a run (highly unlikely, but not impossible). I'm coming off a mediocre day on Sunday where I hit both spread bets but missed the game and team totals badly. There are 12 games tonight and I've spent more time analyzing them than I probably should have this morning to try to find some angles. I think we have a few but definitely check back later this afternoon for player props, too.
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It's a long season and I would strongly encourage everyone to bet responsibly and sustainably so you don't have to sit out at any point if your discretionary funds dry up. Definitely follow me on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS as I toss out some picks and player props to the public when I get a chance. In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Tuesday, April 5, 2022. I would highly encourage you to join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass!
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Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets for Today
- Season Record 182-159-2
- Against the Spread 82-70-2
- Over/Under 35-45
- Player Props 65-44
- Teasers/Parlays are not included in the overall record
I am NOT including any picks I give out on Twitter on days that this article doesn't run, just as an FYI.
I am not tracking units with these picks. If you're wondering how many units to bet on each pick, just assume I'm betting one unit on each spread, total, or prop and likely only a half unit at most on each parlay or teaser. Here is today's model, which now includes my personal spread calculation. I highlighted spots in yellow where my odds are significantly different from Vegas and a few of those are going to end up as official picks, while the others you can bet at your own leisure.
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NBA Betting Picks
Charlotte Hornets (+5.5) @ Miami Heat (225.5 total)
The Heat are 3-0 against the Hornets this season, winning the first two games easily and then needing two overtimes to beat Charlotte by four points in their third meeting. Miami was good to us on Sunday, coming back against Toronto to cover and win outright in a hard-fought game against a surging Raptors team. They did that without their star Jimmy Butler, mind you, who should be back in the lineup here tonight. Kyle Lowry is iffy for this one but sounds like he's going to try to play so Miami should be at full health - which is bad news for Charlotte.
The Heat aren't the top seed in the East for no reason, this is a battle-tested, chip-on-their-shoulder club that showed a lot of resiliency this season. They win with excellent team defense and rebounding, and are yet another example of how the "whole is greater than the sum of its parts" approach in the NBA has worked beautifully this season (see also, CLE, MEM, PHX, GSW).
The Hornets did get Gordon Hayward back and have played better down the stretch. But they're just not on Miami's level and the Heat have mismatches inside (Bam against Plumlee and Harrell) as well as on the perimeter (Butler vs. Charlotte wings) that they should take advantage of in this one. Miami has the sixth man of the year in Tyler Herro coming off the bench, too, giving them the advantage with their second unit.
Five and a half points is a weird number here, but the more I've been looking at it, the less worried I get. I think the Heat cruise in this one and win comfortably. On a night with a bunch of really big spreads, this is a good team with a very manageable number.
The Pick: Miami -5.5 (-110 DK)
Milwaukee Bucks (-4.5) @ Chicago Bulls (228.5 total)
This game matters a bit more for Chicago than Milwaukee, as the Bulls could still technically drop out of the top-6 and into the play-in if they lose a few more games this week and teams like Toronto and Cleveland both win out. But the Bucks are suiting everyone up as of right now and are the clear favorites here as they should be. They're 3-0 against the Bulls this season and some of my Chicago fan friends know the Bulls' record against the top teams in each conference is abysmal (so I won't repeat it here now).
Chicago is still a good team, though, and they're not likely to be blown out as they were in the last meeting between these two. Their defense still is very mediocre at best, even with Alex Caruso and Patrick Williams back as Lonzo Ball continues to be out.
My model likes the over here by about four points, but I'm going to adjust that a tad and go with just the Bucks team total in case the Bulls struggle offensively. We need the Bucks to score 117, which they have in 10 of their last 11 wins (and even a few of their losses, too).
The Pick: MIL team total OVER 116.5 points (-115 DK)
L.A. Lakers (+11.5) @ Phoenix Suns (231.5 total)
So it looks like both LeBron James and Anthony Davis are questionable for this game and I'm not totally convinced that either of them plays. It feels more and more like a lost season for the Lakers and they'd much rather pack it in and blame coaching, injuries, and whatever else they can think of for this terrible year and failing to meet expectations. Even with a healthy and productive Anthony Davis, the Lakers still lost to Denver on Sunday and our Denver team total went soaring over as L.A. continued their recent pattern of poor defense.
A fully healthy Suns team is this Laker defense's worst nightmare. I've called them the Death Star before and watching their offense with Chris Paul at the helm, Devin Booker knocking down shots, and everyone else knowing their role is a thing of beauty. Phoenix is 3-0 against L.A. this season and they casually dropped 140 points on them in their last meeting without CP3 in the lineup (and LeBron played in that game). I'm all of this Suns' team total as they're averaging 122 points per game over their last ten, while the Lakers are allowing nearly 124 points to their opponents in the same span.
The Pick: PHX team total over 121.5 (-120 DK)
Memphis Grizzlies (+5) @ Utah Jazz (221.5 total)
The Grizzlies are five-point underdogs? On what planet? Are they playing the Monstars or what? I'm trying to figure out what's going on with this line because it simply doesn't make any sense to me. Yes, I know Ja Morant is out but if you've been reading this column you'll know that Memphis is still 17-3 ATS without Morant this season. Dillon Brooks is doubtful, too, but the rest of the Memphis squad should be ready to roll as the starters were all rested over the weekend and haven't played in four days.
I have Memphis favored here (barely) as I have that much respect for their ability to compete any given night no matter who is in their lineup. They've been a superior team compared to Utah in every way this season and are 2-0 against them head-to-head. I'll gladly take the five points here and probably put a smaller amount on the money line, too. Utah simply doesn't defend all that well and relies entirely too much on Donovan Mitchell to carry their offense. They have some other shot-makers such as Bojan Bogdanovic and Jordan Clarkson, but I still think Memphis is the all-around better team and they play with a physicality that can't be matched by the Jazz. Adams is the perfect big man to give Gobert trouble on the interior and the Grizzlies guards should have their way with the aging Mike Conley and defensively-challenged Mitchell.
The Pick: Memphis +5 (-110 DK)
Attention fellow sports bettors! We have some exciting news to share as we are now officially partnered with various sportsbooks and have some sweet sports betting promo offers! Get your deposit bonus, as well as a year of free RotoBaller Premium access, when you sign up with a new account today! After you're signed up, use our picks in this article for spreads, totals, and props to win big.
NBA Prop Bet Picks
Darius Garland over 33.5 points/assists (-110 DK) - I had to shop around to get the lowest number here and I entertained the PRA at 36.5, too, but let's not worry about rebounds. Instead, let's focus on what Garland does extremely well - score and pass. He had 25 points and 12 assists against Orlando when they met just a few weeks ago and I expect him to have another big outing today in a good matchup and must-win scenario for Cleveland.
Tre Jones over 23.5 PRA (-110 DK) - The spread makes me a tad nervous here as Denver is now favored by over nine points, but they also have let plenty of lesser teams hang around this season. Tre has been damn good as the starting point guard this season when DJM is out, averaging 13-5-7 in 8 starts. I like using guards against Denver, too. If he's going to be DFS chalk (and for good reason) let's cash in on his PRA number being a few points too low, too.
Fred VanVleet and Drew Eubanks both over 1.5 BLK/STL (+155) - I rarely include a player prop combo but this one is juicy. FVV averages over a half-block per game which is elite for a guard and has been on a tear lately with four, six, seven, and three "stocks" in his last four. Meanwhile, Eubanks had 5 "stocks" of his own the last time that Portland met OKC - the team that allows the second-most defensive stats to the center position (after Houston).
Steven Adams over 8.5 rebounds (-130 DK) - Adams is averaging over 11 boards per game over his last five games and nearly ten per game this season. His playing time fluctuates a lot depending on game flow, but he should be needed tonight to combat the size of Rudy Gobert on the interior. He has averaged 9 or more boards in head-to-head matchups with Gobert in eight of their last ten meetings.
I usually post all my favorite props in our RotoBaller premium slack on a nightly basis - if you're not a premium member for NBA content you can change that by signing up here!
We just added a new player prop tool that is available to our NBA premium and betting premium members, too!
I don't do this often but how about a crazy ole' 6-team parlay? (always go easy on the units on these big parlays!)
The Pick: Raptors/Heat/Nuggets/Cavs/Bucks/Pelicans ML Parlay (+711 DraftKings Sportsbook)
NBA Betting Picks: Team/Player Stats Matrix
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I use this chart when making player prop bets! I hope you find this information useful when making your bets as well.
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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