RADIO
T.S. Eliot once wrote that "April is the cruelest month." He didn't have fantasy baseball in mind, but the poet might as well have been surveying the wasteland of early under-perfomers in any given season. The back half of the month represents an inflection point in the schedule, a time when the initial flurry of early waiver wire darlings has died down a bit, managers have been battered by what already feels like too many injuries and are able to see at least the outlines of their squads' strengths and weaknesses.
Those outlines can prove deceptive, however. We rarely recall the slow starts that turned out to be exactly that; players who right the ship and resume producing at or above the levels to which we're accustomed don't stick in the memory - or the craw - like the guys who just never got going. Hence, every year we experience varying degrees of panic over a wide swath of players, many of whom will be just fine. But some won't!
As we barrel toward May and what will hopefully be a much more normal summer than the last, fantasy managers find themselves faced with the first big test of the season: What to do about the big names on the roster who aren't pulling their weight. Let's talk through a few of those, shall we? We'll cover hitters this week and pitchers next.
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Keep Calm and Carry On
Paul Goldschmidt, 1B, St. Louis Cardinals
Goldschmidt hit over .300 last year for the first time since 2015, with a .417 OBP that also came in as his best mark since that year. But he didn't hit for much power, bopping just six home runs in 58 games after averaging 34 in the three seasons prior. So seeing a .624 OPS with just two homers in 17 games isn't what any manager hoped for. The atypically low walk rate and increase in whiffs, even less so. Fortunately, he's still hitting the ball hard enough that Statcast pegs him for a .291 xBA and .525 xSLG. Goldschmidt isn't Oldschmidt just yet.
Ozzie Albies, 2B, Atlanta Braves
Albies has been one of the unluckiest players in baseball thus far, as his .149 BABIP is third-lowest among qualified hitters and wholly undeserved. He's hitting the ball harder than ever, walking at a career-best clip. He has brought his strikeout rate back in line with previous seasons after a spike in 2020. There's no reason to doubt that hits will start falling for him sooner rather than later.
Cause for Concern
Christian Yelich, OF, Milwaukee Brewers
Yelich (back) is currently out with a lower back strain, a recurring issue for him as balky backs tend to be for most people. But before going on the shelf with what could be a minimum stint on the injured list, the former MVP had yet to hit a home run. He also continued to strike out at above a 30% clip like he did in last season's rough showing. And while 2020's results were underwhelming for Yelich, the data provided reason for optimism. Not thus far in 2021, as his .333 batting average has masked an across-the-board decline in contact quality metrics.
Francisco Lindor, SS, New York Mets
Lindor's move to Queens over the winter gave some fantasy managers pause. Citi Field is typically among the more unfriendly venues for hitters in the MLB, diametrically opposed to the shortstop's former home park in Cleveland. He's logged a .688 OPS in 14 games, with just one home run and an unsuccessful stolen base attempt. Better days are ahead, but the early data suggests that those days may be good rather than great. That could be tough to swallow for anyone who invested a second-round pick to roster Lindor.
Uh Oh
Gleyber Torres, 2B/SS, New York Yankees
Two years ago, Torres put up an .871 OPS and hit 38 home runs in his age-22 season. He's hit three homers since. Last season was pandemic-stricken and injury-shortened, but on one of the league's most disappointing teams in the early going, the shortstop still sticks out as having been especially underwhelming. Even a two-hit performance on Thursday only bumped his season line to a limp .206/.306/.238, and Statcast considers those ugly numbers to largely be earned. Now he's getting called out by his manager for lack of hustle. Not great!
Randy Arozarena, OF, Tampa Bay Rays
Arozarena was an absolute monster not just in the postseason, but also during the stretch run for the Rays. That extended heater, along with the always-intoxicating blend of power and speed, made him a top-60 pick in drafts this spring. But the 26-year-old hasn't remotely resembled that player at all yet in 2021. He's only making contact on two out of every three pitches in the zone, and on two out of three of those, he's pounding the ball into the ground.
Yoan Moncada, 3B, Chicago White Sox
Are we...are we sure Moncada is actually good? COVID aftereffects played a major role in wrecking his 2020 before it could get off the ground, but his only great season came in 2019 and was propped up by a .406 BABIP. Apart from that season, neither his actual results nor his underlying metrics have been all that impressive. He certainly has the tools and looks the part, but right now his draft price appears to have been far too high.
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