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Hopefully, you've made it to the Week 15 GPP DFS Value Plays with a big enough stake to make some aggressive plays. Because I'm going with some of the more expensive studs this week like Derrick Henry this week. I'm even spending up on defense and grabbing the Rams this week.
But to afford some of those more costly options, we need to find some GPP value plays. Fortunately, you've come to the right place!
I would give myself a "B" at best for last week's GPP Value Plays, but they can't all be like my Collin Johnson call a few weeks ago! While I draft off of that for just a little longer, here are four Week 15 GPP value picks at each of the key positions.
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Week 15 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Chase Daniel at Tennessee (DraftKings $5000, FanDuel $6500)
There is no question we are scraping the bottom of the barrel here, but I've always liked Chase Daniel since he came out of Missouri. He's not an elite talent, but he's a good player who had just never had his chance. He started his career behind a Drew Brees in his prime and next thing you know he's become a journeyman quarterback. But I think he brings enough experience and skills that he can be a viable play this week.
Did that sound convincing? Because I do believe it, but the truth is this much more about the match-up than anything else. The Titans are giving up the fourth-most fantasy points to quarterbacks and their Defense DVOA is ranked 26th in the league. Tennessee and only six other teams are enabling their opponents to score more than 100 PPR points per game. To put that into perspective, only three offenses are averaging 100+ PPR points per game (KC, GB, and SEA). The Titans have allowed 28 passing TDs, tied for the league most. Daniel is not exactly Mike Vick, so it's also beneficial to know that Tennessee has notched a sack on a league-worst 2.59% of opposing dropbacks. Again, to give you a little perspective, the next closest is 3.08% or almost 20% better.
With an over/under above the half-century mark for this game, I expect Daniel to do enough damage that he can make us a tidy profit.
Week 15 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
D'Andre Swift at Tennessee (DraftKings $6400, FanDuel $6700)
I originally had Leonard Fournette in this space, but I couldn't recommend him or most of the cheaper options than Swift in good conscience. So Swift is making a repeat appearance in this space. Sooner or later, he's gonna get the lions-share of carries, right? See what I did there?
Bad jokes aside, Swift did see 53% of the snap counts (Swift got 36 while AP and KJ combined for 30), which was his third-highest amount this season. The problem was it led to only 11 touches after getting 16 and 21 in his previous pair of games. The good news is Titans won't hog the time of possession as the Packers did. Tennessee works at a much faster pace allowing their opponents the second-most plays per game in the league with an opposing 68.2 ppg mark.
But wait, there's more good news! Tennessee is being rolled over by RBs for the sixth-most fantasy points per weighted opportunity. Worried about negative game flow? Don't be. In the half dozen games that all three Lions RBs have been on the field, Swift has 109 routes while Johnson has 61 and Peterson has run 35. With Tennessee giving up 1.72 PPR points per target to running backs, things are looking up for Swift. The Titans have allowed 13 different RBs to finish as an RB2 or better. There is reason to be concerned about the potential loss of center Frank Ragnow of course...
Lions C Frank Ragnow suffered a fractured throat on Sunday (via @RapSheet).
Despite this, Ragnow did NOT
▪️ miss a single snap
▪️ allow a sack*
▪️ allow a QB hit*
▪️ allow a pressure**h/t @PFF pic.twitter.com/LnqeANEIba
— NFLonCBS (@NFLonCBS) December 16, 2020
Yikes! To paraphrase one individual on Twitter, top that NHL! Anyway, we still don't have confirmation that Ragnow won't play (again, wow!), but I still like the value that Swift brings here given how little I like the cheaper options this week.
Week 15 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
Devan Duvernay vs Jacksonville (DraftKings $3200, FanDuel $5100)
So nearly all the Ravens WRs were placed on the Covid-19 list due to contact tracing. Somehow Duvernay dodged that bullet while Marquis Brown, Miles Boykin, and James Proche did not. Be aware that Brown might still play and will miss the game only if he tests positive. Now with the medical information out of the way, I still like Duvernay this week even if Brown does play. He's a pure punt play, but with intriguing upside, especially given the match-up.
Even if he's not the Ravens' top WR this weekend, Jacksonville has seen 21 opposing wide receivers notch top 40 performances. That's particularly noteworthy given that opposing WRs have seen a paltry 18 red-zone targets, least in the NFL. There have been plenty of chances as we know, so that seems like an outlier than should see some regression to the mean. Regardless, the Jags defense is being bombed for an extraordinary second-most in the league 9.24 yards per target, and a fourth most 1.96 PPR points per target.
Week 15 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Gerald Everett vs New York Jets (DraftKings $3200, FanDuel $5000)
If you want to spend up a little bit and grab Tyler Higbee, I suppose you could. But either way, I want to grab a Rams tight end. The Rams shellacking of the Patriots led to minimal passing, but Everett was 13th in targets amongst TEs for the last seven weeks, averaging 5.2 targets per game. Everett played 53 of 63 snaps last week and 60 the previous week. He is definitely getting time on the field.
And that's key, given that the Rams opponent on the field is the Jets this week. They are after all playing the Jets, who are bad everywhere, but they are dead last in preventing fantasy points to the TE position. The Jets are being hijacked for 2.35 PPR points per target this year. I've mentioned this before, but the Cardinals were comically and historically bad last year against TEs and they allowed 2.32 PPR points per target. And as Jon Lovitz Ernie Capadino would say, "Well this would be more then!"
The Jet's opponents are averaging a whopping 21+ percent more fantasy points against them than non-NYJ matchups. Capadino is probably my favorite character in that movie. So allow me to say this as bluntly as he would. The Jets are bad; the price is low on Everett; you should roster him.
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