RADIO
I am writing my Week 9 GPP Value Plays while they are still diligently counting the mail-in votes here in Pennsylvania. I don't want to get too political, so I will simply say letting PA determine anything related to the rest of the country is a bad idea. One of the defining attributes of the Pennsylvania driver is inconsistency. We don't merge well, but we're less aggressive than NYC drivers but handle foul weather better than our neighbors south of the Mason Dixon line. Just don't try to guess what we're going to do on the road. And remember, Philadelphia is the only major city with a sports statue of a fictional figure. See where I am going here?
You do? Because I don't. See? I'm acting like a PA driver! But in all seriousness, I know its an onus that most Pennsylvanians including myself don't want. Choosing GPP value plays however? That is something I am quite comfortable with and I've been doing pretty well lately. And yes, you're welcome for the Zack Moss suggestion.
So who should you expect to be thanking me for at this time next week? Here are four Week 9 GPP value picks at each of the key positions that should help push you into the cashing zone on Sunday!
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Week 9 Quarterback DFS GPP Value Play
Drew Lock (DraftKings $5,200, FanDuel $7200)
The Atlanta Falcons have been better the last two weeks, but they remain the best match-up for any quarterback this week. Despite holding Bridgewater and Stafford to relatively low totals, the Falcons are still giving up a league-worst 34.55 fantasy points per game to quarterbacks.
In addition, Lock has been resembling what John Elway had in mind much more lately than he did at the start of the season. Lock is coming off a three-touchdown game. That was against the Chargers, one of the better defenses in the league. It was a rocky start of the season for Lock, but I do think he bounces back to a number resembling his rookie year when he averaged nearly two touchdowns a game.
Additionally, I know I would like to see this again...
Drew Lock's "just threw the game-winning TD" dance ??
(via @thecheckdown)pic.twitter.com/qMuNB4DqFh
— ESPN (@espn) November 2, 2020
Week 9 Running Back DFS GPP Value Play
David Johnson at Jaguars (DraftKings $5600, FanDuel $6800)
I don't remember the last time I actually included Johnson in a DFS lineup and thought it was a good value. But I do like him this week.
First and foremost, he'll be facing Jacksonville, who is the sixth-most generous team when it comes to giving up RB fantasy points. Secondly, Johnson is coming off of a bye, meaning he should be arriving in Jacksonville more refreshed. Finally, he gives us a floor of at least 50 yards, which is not great, but he's averaging double-digit fantasy points per game. Given that he's priced like a mid-level RB2 on both sites, I'll gladly take that.
Week 9 Wide Receiver DFS GPP Value Play
John Brown vs Seahawks (DraftKings $4600, FanDuel $5500)
I'm aware that this is the umpteenth time this year I have mentioned how poor the Seattle secondary has been. So I will make a simple deal with you. Once Seattle stops bleeding fantasy points to WRs, I'll stop discussing it. They are not only allowing the most WR fantasy points per game, they have given up more WR fantasy points total than any other team. That's particularly putrid when a) you realize that a quarter of the league hasn't had their byes yet and b) it's not just a couple of points--we are talking 50 more points than the Browns who are the second-worst. For those slow with the math, that's greater than a TD per game!
So yeah, I'd try to get part of Seattle's opponent's passing game this week, the Buffalo Bills. You could certainly pay up and grab Stefon Diggs. However, I'll take the cheaper and under-the-radar play of John Brown. The Sheriff hasn't been able to ride much lately due to injury woes. Yet he is expected to be fully recovered by Sunday. Given that he was healthy last year and finished with 72 catches, six touchdowns and over 1,000 yards receiving, I like him to have a big bounce-back game this week at a very affordable price.
Week 9 Tight End DFS GPP Value Play
Albert Okwuegbunam at Falcons (DraftKings $2800, FanDuel $5000)
I call him "A-Ok" but if you want to refer to him formally his surname is pronounced O-coo-WAY-boo-nahm. However you refer to him, you had better learn who he is. He hasn't quite picked up the volume you want to see, but he is becoming extremely efficient on a per snap basis, and some of it is not even showing up in the box score:
Albert Okwuegbunam played just 16 snaps Sunday (25% of the offense's total), but seemed to make nearly every one of them impactful. Drew two PI flags on the last drive, both of which extended the drive. And, of course, the skying TD catch that began the fourth-quarter comeback.
— Nick Kosmider (@NickKosmider) November 2, 2020
So yes, he is coming off his first touchdown and his third game in a row of at least six DKFPs. That is still decent value given his low price tag. And as I mentioned above, Atlanta is not great at defending the pass. But their inability to keep quarterbacks in check extends to TEs as well. The Falcons are giving up the most fantasy points to TEs per game as well.
This appetizing match-up gives him a very enticing ceiling. But even his floor is attractive given his high per snap efficiency. How's this for eye-opening? Albert Okwuegbunam has run just 15 and 18 pass routes the past two weeks but has accrued 13 targets (39.4%) on those routes. For context, George Kittle leads all qualifying tight ends in target rate per route for the season at 28.5%. When you're beating one of the top players at your position by almost 50% rate, that's pretty good!
I wouldn't play Okwuegbunam in cash games, but his high snap efficiency makes him a great week 9 DFS GPP value play.
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