RADIO
It's almost time for the second-best day of the year: minor league Opening Day!
MiLB will kick off its season one week from today, as 110 teams will come together to compete in 55 games from Triple-A down to Low-A. There will be no shortage of prospects to talk about once the season starts up, so beginning next week we'll start focusing less on the prospects and rookies that are in the majors and instead focus more on the guys that are still on their way up. We'll still talk about a couple guys every now and then that have been called up to the majors, but from next week forward we're going to take a much deeper look at the fantasy prospect pool.
So for the last time this season, let's check out these four prospects that are doing well to start their major league careers.
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Adolis García - OF, Texas Rangers
36% Rostered
2021 stats: 12 G, .269/.309/.615, 5 HR, 13 RBI, 8 R
Entering this year García had 24 major league games under his belt from 2018 to 2020, and he didn't have much to show of it as he slashed .087/.125/.130 with a 45.8 percent strikeout rate in that span. But this year things have finally clicked into place, with a .269 average and .924 OPS while his five homers have him tied for 19th-most in the league while leading all rookies. Obviously small sample sizes come into play here, but this year García is making significantly better contact than ever before in his career, with a 23.5 percent barrel rate and 50 percent hard-hit rate that ranks in the 97th and 80th percentiles respectively. For comparison, García had never recorded a barrel prior to this year, and his previous career-high hard-hit rate was 10 percent.
Now the good news is that his early success appears to be mostly legitimate, as he owns a .270 xBA and .595 xSLG. However, while García has dropped his strikeout rate from previous years, it's still on the high side at 29.4 percent, and his 30.1 percent whiff rate (30th percentile) and 32.7 percent chase rate (17th percentile) show that he is swinging at just about everything that's thrown his way. So he's going to be prone to some cold stretches that will frustrate managers, but he has shown in the minors that he can be a 20-homer, 10-steal threat, with the potential to reach up to 30 home runs and and 15 steals.
García has been hitting his way into more and more playing time as the month has gone on, and now that Leody Taveras has been optioned to the team's alternate site, García should become a regular fixture in Texas' lineup. Even with the concerns about his strikeout rate and plate discipline, García is going to be a valuable player in fantasy this year and he should be added in all formats, as he will likely have the greatest power potential of anyone off the waiver-wire in 2021.
Sam Haggerty - OF, Seattle Mariners
2% Rostered
2021 stats: 15 G, .263/.300/.447, 2 HR, 5 RBI, 8 R, 3 SB
Despite playing in a crowded Seattle outfield, Haggerty has already gotten off to a solid start this season and has even managed to show improved power from his career numbers. He has never hit for much power dating back through his minor league career, as his previous career-best was four home runs which he reached in 94 games in 2018 and 100 games in 2016. As always with these early season numbers, small sample size has to be taken into account here, but right now Haggerty is on pace for a 20-homer, 30-steal campaign. Haggerty has already shown that level of speed in the minors — averaging almost 28 steals a year from 2016 through 2019 — but a significant power boost like what he has displayed would send his value skyward.
OK but here's the best part: his numbers suggest that he's been slightly unlucky at the plate early on. He currently sports a .294 xBA and .586 xSLG, while his 10.3 percent barrel rate and 48.3 percent hard-hit rate are also career-bests. He's cut his whiff rate down nearly 15 percent from 2020, and he has a career-high 87.8 percent zone-contact rate, despite posting a career-low 65.3 percent zone-swing rate. So when he's swinging the bat, he's not missing the ball very often. Taylor Trammell is a highly touted prospect and the Mariners will give him every chance to succeed, but given the fact that he's still struggling with a .155 average and .613 OPS, it's not too hard to imagine that Haggerty could start to see more playing time over Trammell. Haggerty already got the start over Trammell in three of the four games in the latest series with Boston, so we could be seeing a transition already.
The one thing to keep in mind though is Seattle's outfield situation is very crowded, with Kyle Lewis and Mitch Haniger locked into two of the three spots, and the third open to Haggerty and Trammell at the major league level, with Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodriguez waiting in the minors. The fact is of the four players vying for that third outfield spot, Haggerty does not have the prospect hype surrounding him. So it's possible that something could change later this season and he could be moved back to a bench role, but I'm pretty high on him still, and managers should start targeting him in AL-only formats and deep-mixed leagues.
Luis Patiño - SP, Tampa Bay Rays
15% Rostered
2021 stats: 1 G, 1 GS, 2.2 IP, 0-0, 0.00 ERA, 0.375 WHIP, 3 K
Acquired in the trade that sent Blake Snell to the Padres, Patiño made his Tampa Bay debut on Sunday with 2 2/3 scoreless innings of work against the Blue Jays. He allowed just one walk while striking out three in his debut, as he recorded the longest outing of his career so far. Looking at his pitch velocity, his fastball and changeup on Sunday were both about two miles per hour slower than what he had averaged in 17 1/3 innings last year, but his slider looked very good as he saw it go up by about one mile per hour from 2020 and used it as the finishing pitch for all three of his strikeouts. The slightly lowered velocity could also be a positive sign for Patiño if it means that he has sacrificed velocity for control. One of his biggest problems in 2020 was his 16.5 percent walk rate, but now through three innings in Spring Training and 2 2/3 innings in the regular season he has only allowed the one walk from Sunday.
Patiño has to be one of the more exciting pitching prospects in the American League this year, as he is just 21 years old and boasts a career 29.4 percent strikeout rate over three years in the minor leagues. The biggest question for now though is how will he be used by the Rays. He's got starter potential, but given the way Tampa Bay mixes and matches their pitching schedule they could use him out of the bullpen or as an opener, which could limit his value.
If we assume that he'll be used as a traditional starter going forward, his next scheduled start would come against a Houston Astros squad that has the lowest strikeout rate in the majors at 19.2 percent, and is fourth in the league with a .260 team average. His next appearance — whenever it comes — will tell us a lot about what to expect of his usage, and if we can see him reach at least five innings of work then managers in deep-mixed and AL-only formats should start scooping him up off the waiver-wire.
Pavin Smith - 1B/OF, Arizona Diamondbacks
6% Rostered
2021 stats: 19 G, .288/.329/.485, 2 HR, 7 RBI, 11 R
The seventh overall pick in the 2017 draft, Smith is showing signs of improvement at the plate in his second year in the majors. He has improved his average by 18 points and his slugging percentage by 80 points from his 2020 totals, as he has gone from two extra-base hits in 37 at-bats last year to eight extra-base hits in 66 at-bats to start the season. But beyond those base numbers, his advanced metrics have been looking excellent to open 2021. His .325 xBA and .592 xSLG suggest that he has been slightly unlucky at the plate early on, as he has been making more solid contact with an 11.5 percent barrel rate, 40.4 percent sweet-spot rate and 57.7 percent hard-hit rate.
Smith has been one of the better hitters in baseball according to these numbers, with his barrel rate ranking in the 68th percentile, while his xBA, xSLG and hard-hit rate each rank him in the 88th percentile and higher. He's been doing an excellent job of hitting pitches in the zone with a 93 percent zone-contact rate, and while his chase rate has gone up almost six and a half percent from 2020, he has cut his whiff rate down to 16.8 percent, which ranks him in the 90th percentile.
With Tim Locastro and Ketel Marte on the injured list, Smith has managed to get quite a bit of regular playing time in Arizona. But once they're both back, Smith will have some trouble finding playing time between Locastro, Marte, David Peralta and Kole Calhoun in the outfield, and he'll have similar troubles finding playing time at first base once Christian Walker comes off the injured list. But the Diamondbacks have been doing a good job of rotating guys in and out of the lineup right now, and Smith is putting up too good numbers to be relegated full time to the bench.
He's shown 10 to 15 home run potential in the minors, but based on what he's done so far I think he could reach 20 this season if he's given enough playing time. I think we'll also see his walk rate start to trend upwards soon, as he posted a career 11.6 percent walk rate across three years in the minors. For now, Smith is a guy to target in primarily NL-only formats and some deep-mixed leagues, but if he starts drawing more walks then he becomes an interesting target in OBP formats.
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