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Now we find ourselves with the final question to be answered regarding the industry mock draft that we hosted last Thursday. Now we’re looking at those go-go-gadget picks, asking everyone who they thought the reach of the draft was. As is tradition, I’ll be following everyone’s thoughts with a brief commentary of my own because it’s my article and I can.
Here’s the lineup: Kyle Bishop (RotoBaller), Alex Chamberlain (RotoGraphs/RotoBaller), Brad Johnson (RotoBaller), Joe Gallina (RotoExperts), Keith Lott (WeTalkFantasySports), Nate Miller (Sporting News), Nick Mariano (RotoBaller), Justin Mandaro (TheFantasyFix), Alex Beckey (BaseballHQ), Jarad Wilk (New York Post), Justin Mason/Paul Sporer (RotoGraphs), and George Bissel (Baseball Prospectus).
Q: Biggest Reach Of The Draft?
Brad Johnson (RotoBaller / Fangraphs)
Kyle Schwarber / Jose Reyes - Easily Kyle Schwarber in round three - one pick after Posey. Schwarber basically needs to rake for 600+ PA to warrant that price. That level of playing time may be hard to find, and there are plenty of other ways he could underperform all our glowing projections.
Alex B. had another questionable pickup I'll call out - Jose Reyes. Will he play any games this year? I'm not so sure. If Chapman's situation warrants a 30 game suspension, 80 games has to be a bare minimum for Reyes. He may never play professional baseball again if he's deported. Even he does play, he was terrible last year and will have plenty of distractions to deal with.
Joe Gallina (RotoExperts)
Kyle Schwarber - Nothing outrageous, as it’s obvious that everyone knew what they were doing. I might have waited on Kyle Schwarber.
So here we are folks, five of us identifying Kyle Schwarber as the reach here. This isn’t new around the industry, as Schwarber is quite the polarizing figure in all circles. We saw what Alex Beckey had to say regarding how happy he was to get Schwarber, even citing other industry drafts with research and facts on his ADP. Schwarber can provide 30-homer upside, but you can see I don’t have to add anything here to the other side of the coin. Once Buster Posey goes, it can really put the squeeze on others who had their eye on Posey and place priority on getting one of the elite catchers. Brad and Jarad hit the nail on the head for why Reyes is a tough sell.
Justin Mason (RotoGraphs)
Byron Buxton - I don't think they're were too many reaches early. Buxton in the 11th seems too high for me. I would much rather have guys like Yelich, Gardner, Dickerson, and Granderson who all went later.
Justin reiterates what was said in the “which pick would you erase” piece, where Buxton felt like a forced pick and I spoke on wanting Christian Yelich over him. Justin includes some other names that went later than the 11th round.
Alex Beckey (Baseball HQ)
Zack Wheeler - I’ll go with Zack Wheeler being taken in the 23rd round, only because he’s hurt. Wheeler, who is expected to be out until at least July after recovering from Tommy John surgery, would take up an active roster spot unless he can be moved to the bench. The same could be said for Jose Reyes, Aroldis Chapman, Michael Brantley, Devon Travis and Jung-Ho Kang among others.
I’m hard-pressed to say that someone being taken in the last round is a “reach” just because they’re pure lottery picks at this point. I do agree that in our format where there are zero bench spots that it’s tough to stomach an inactive guy, but inactive pitchers are more palatable than hitters.
Justin Mandaro (TheFantasyFix)
Jose Fernandez / Andrew McCutchen - Jose Fernandez (Nate Miller 4.07) was a pretty big stretch for me. He went ahead of guys like Stephen Strasburg, Felix Hernandez and Zack Greinke among some others and while I can understand why that might be when fully healthy he just isn't going to put up the number of innings that any of the others above are going to. The Marlins have already come out and said he will be on an innings limit and after only 64 2/3 innings in 11 starts I just don't see much more than double that in 2016. Even if he gets to 150 innings this season that's still going to be significantly lower than the other pitchers that went after him. He is immensely talented and deserves, when healthy, to be selected really high in these drafts just think it was a bit of a reach.
I also believe Andrew McCutchen in the first round is a bit of a reach. He is still really young and still very good but he is more of a 2nd rounder for me than he is a 1st rounder.
I agree with the Jo-Fer call, as I myself had him way too high when I started looking at my 2016 rankings back in December, but then really considered the innings limit and potential re-injury risk baked in, it’s tough to take him over the names that Justin just rattled off. I’m not tied to the 150 innings, but I do think it weighs Fernandez down a bit. I’m not on board with the Cutch call though, that take is too hot for my fingers, as I think it’s not so much about him being a “top-12” player at the end of the year, but the high floor and consistent production that he gives you is why he is sought after in the first round.
Keith Lott (We Talk Fantasy Sports)
Lorenzo Cain - Lorenzo Cain in the third round and the 13th OF overall is reaching.
While Cain’s growth does appear to be sustainable, I can see why pegging him as the 13th outfielder is seen as going too far. Entering his age-30 season, he carries some durability woes from the past which can put a dent into his stock, but last year was his first getting over 600 PAs and he rewarded his believers with a great season.
Alex Chamberlain (RotoGraphs / RotoBaller)
Xander Bogaerts/Steven Matz - A cursory glance: Xander Bogaerts at 5.09 (57th). Maybe Steven Matz at 9.09 (105th), too, before Richards, Martinez, Stroman, Wacha... So, basically, I guess I didn't like Alex Beckey's draft (and neither did FantasyPros, but you didn't hear it from me).
I’m always happy to see someone else throwing some shade at this upper-mid tier middle infielders. Xander Bogaerts is a guy who rose to the top with great run and RBI totals and a strong .320 average. Some project his power to step up this year and join the party, and others see the average coming down a bit more to the .300 level while the power + steal total remains around 20. Count me as being in the latter camp.
Kyle Bishop (RotoBaller)
Carlos Gomez - Carlos Gomez at 30. More risk than I'd care to assume in the third round, and he pretty much has to rebound to his previous level to return a profit.
Carlos Gomez at 30, in his age-30 season, leaves little room for error. This was the last “auto-pick” of the draft, but it is important to point out that this is not something that one would normally want to do. He is in a nice park to hit in and a strong lineup surrounds him, but he needs to rebound from a poor 2015 and selecting him this early eats away at much of the value. You hope that he goes 20/20, but the counting stats won’t be as pretty if he lands in the six-hole for Houston.
Editor's note: I didn't realize at the time that Gomez was an autopick. In that case, I'd probably have to agree with Chamberlain. -KB
Jarad Wilk (NY Post)
Kyle Schwarber/Jose Reyes - Schwarber went higher than expected, but I was more surprised with Jose Reyes in the middle of the draft. There's too much uncertainty with his situation and his numbers and his performance hasn't been up-to-par over the past few seasons.
George Bissell (Baseball Prospectus)
Kyle Schwarber - Kyle Schwaber (3rd Round, #33 overall). I had the dynamic sophomore slugger barely outside the top-50 overall in my personal rankings. The talent is legitimate, however, to see him taken nearly 20 spots ahead of that range was a bit jarring given some of the realistic playing time and performance risks in his profile.
Nick Mariano (RotoBaller)
Kyle Schwarber - I’m ignoring Arenado at #6 and Carlos Gomez in the third round since it was auto-picked, I'll go with Kyle Schwarber here. I know it's a two catcher league, but going right after Buster Posey at #33 overall scares me.
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