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Jon Anderson's Catcher Tiered Rankings and Projections

Catchers, catchers, catchers. Everybody's least favorite position for fantasy baseball. This year, the position is a bit more interesting. I wrote about this and took a general look at the position here, so check that out if you missed it.

We usually find ourselves with a few gems at the top of the position, and then a swift and steep decline to a barren wasteland here. That has made it a pretty easy choice in previous years to just wait on the position in drafts and then stream throughout the year based on who is getting plate appearances.

This year, I don't think it is quite that simple. There is one player that must be considered quite early in drafts, given the incredible couple of years he's had since battling with injuries. And then after that, there's a good handful of options before the giant cliff. Let's get into my fantasy baseball rankings and projections for catchers.

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Tier One

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Salvador Perez 1 31 584 75 34 99 1 .264

Nobody really thinks Perez is going to be anywhere close to his 48 homer season last year, but even the most reasonable projections like ATC have him a significant step above the rest of the field. The only player that comes close to his overall value in 5x5 leagues would be Realmuto because of his ability to steal some bases. I have my doubts about Realmuto though, so I'm leaving Perez as the lone top dog here.

 

Tier Two

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
J.T. Realmuto 2 52 587 77 22 78 12 .261
Will Smith 3 59 504 73 28 80 2 .264
Daulton Varsho 4 92 419 56 16 53 9 .253
Yasmani Grandal 5 94 511 72 26 71 1 .236

I think a lot of analysts would separate Varsho and Grandal from the top two names, but I'm comfortable lumping them all together here. Smith is the best hitter of the bunch right now, but the Dodgers have been hesitant to play him a ton and he won't steal any bases. Realmuto's numbers have been trending downwards, and he's on the wrong side of 30 now, so I think this is the year he really recedes. As for Varsho, the upside is probably unmatched given the fact that he plays the outfield too (boosts his PAs while not having to subject his body to 130 games behind the plate), and he has shown the ability to steal a good number of bases.

As for Grandal, I just really like how the White Sox use him. He has been used as a DH and is typically in a prominent spot in that lineup. His playing time situation was benefited last year by plenty of injuries, but I think he's a great bet to be near the catcher leaders in homers and RBI, and he gets a huge boost in OBP leagues with his insanely high walk rate. This high walk rate actually helps him with batting average as well since he's putting up a bad batting average in fewer total ABs while still being on the field because of all those walks.

 

Tier Three

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Willson Contreras 6 109 523 68 22 67 4 .246
Tyler Stephenson 7 132 479 61 14 56 0 .270
Keibert Ruiz 8 138 427 49 16 56 1 .271

This is the last group of catchers that I think have the chance to actually help your fantasy team's offense, although I would bet against any of them actually doing it. They all have a skill at the plate, at least, so they have to be elevated above the rest of the pack. Contreras is a positive for homers and RBI, and then Stephenson and Ruiz are younger players with pretty solid contact ability, so they are not going to crater your team in batting average like a lot of these names will.

This is probably my favorite tier to hit in two-catcher leagues, but these prices on them will probably have me looking even lower in one-catcher situations.

 

Tier Four

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Travis d'Arnaud 9 193 446 50 16 57 1 .251
Mitch Garver 10 188 410 53 20 55 1 .238
Adley Rutschman 11 174 416 50 14 49 2 .254
Christian Vazquez 12 199 442 48 10 47 6 .255

Now the playing time questions really set in. These guys are probably 70% players at best, and they all have at least one gaping hole in their game at the plate (not even counting steals in that). You could squeeze some decent batting average out of d'Arnaud, Rutschman, and Vazquez. Garver has some big-time pop when he's actually on the field. It's not a very exciting tier though, and the prices are still inside the top-200, so I don't see much reason to go here (unless you're a Rutschman truther, which I am not).

 

Tier Five

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Sean Murphy 13 232 426 49 18 51 0 .226
Elias Diaz 14 246 382 45 14 47 0 .259
Omar Narvaez 15 243 428 48 12 47 0 .251
Alejandro Kirk 16 227 330 41 14 46 1 .270
Gary Sanchez 17 244 405 52 23 58 0 .208

There's basically nothing left at this point. The playing time is solid enough for Murphy and Narvaez, but they aren't good hitters. The rest of these guys have very suspect playing time projections while also not being very good at the plate. My favorite here is Kirk, but he's not really a standalone catcher for your fantasy team given that he's basically in a 50/50 split with Danny Jansen.

 

Tier Six

Player Current Projections
Name Rank ADP PA R HR RBI SB AVG
Mike Zunino 18 236 368 48 23 56 0 .204
Joey Bart 19 256 340 35 8 36 1 .239
Carson Kelly 20 262 388 44 14 49 0 .242

Three guys that can hit the long ball here. You would think Zunino would be higher up after his pretty nice 2021 season, but the fact that he had so much of his production against left-handed pitching makes me really wary of if he can come close to doing it again. Oh, and he'll probably hit .210.

Bart hasn't shown us much to get excited about in the Majors, but his top-prospect status might give you some hope for the future, and he should be locked into regular playing time with Buster Posey retiring. Kelly won't play a ton, but takes a lot of walks and has some power, so you could do worse.

I'm going to end it there because I doubt many leagues care much about catchers after the top-20 are gone.

 

My Catcher Strategy

I'll dip my toes into the Salvador Perez waters in two-catcher leagues, but I won't feel great about it when I do so. If he meets these projections, it will be worth it since he will be beating the rest of the field by a ton. However, catchers are inherently more risky than other offensive positions, so my general rule is to put as little draft capital into it as I can justify. That sends me towards Tiers Four and Five, but I'm not averse to reaching up a bit higher to grab a Keibert Ruiz or maybe even get crazy and buy the lottery ticket on Daulton Varsho.

Glad that's over, check back later for more!



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