Jon Anderson's Catcher Tiered Rankings and Projections

2 years ago by Jon Anderson

Catchers, catchers, catchers. Everybody's least favorite position for fantasy baseball. This year, the position is a bit more interesting. I wrote about this and took a general look at the position here, so check that out if you missed it.

We usually find ourselves with a few gems at the top of the position, and then a swift and steep decline to a barren wasteland here. That has made it a pretty easy choice in previous years to just wait on the position in drafts and then stream throughout the year based on who is getting plate appearances.

This year, I don't think it is quite that simple. There is one player that must be considered quite early in drafts, given the incredible couple of years he's had since battling with injuries. And then after that, there's a good handful of options before the giant cliff. Let's get into my fantasy baseball rankings and projections for catchers.

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Tier One

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Salvador Perez	1	31	584	75	34	99	1	.264

Nobody really thinks Perez is going to be anywhere close to his 48 homer season last year, but even the most reasonable projections like ATC have him a significant step above the rest of the field. The only player that comes close to his overall value in 5x5 leagues would be Realmuto because of his ability to steal some bases. I have my doubts about Realmuto though, so I'm leaving Perez as the lone top dog here.

Tier Two

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
J.T. Realmuto	2	52	587	77	22	78	12	.261
Will Smith	3	59	504	73	28	80	2	.264
Daulton Varsho	4	92	419	56	16	53	9	.253
Yasmani Grandal	5	94	511	72	26	71	1	.236

I think a lot of analysts would separate Varsho and Grandal from the top two names, but I'm comfortable lumping them all together here. Smith is the best hitter of the bunch right now, but the Dodgers have been hesitant to play him a ton and he won't steal any bases. Realmuto's numbers have been trending downwards, and he's on the wrong side of 30 now, so I think this is the year he really recedes. As for Varsho, the upside is probably unmatched given the fact that he plays the outfield too (boosts his PAs while not having to subject his body to 130 games behind the plate), and he has shown the ability to steal a good number of bases.

As for Grandal, I just really like how the White Sox use him. He has been used as a DH and is typically in a prominent spot in that lineup. His playing time situation was benefited last year by plenty of injuries, but I think he's a great bet to be near the catcher leaders in homers and RBI, and he gets a huge boost in OBP leagues with his insanely high walk rate. This high walk rate actually helps him with batting average as well since he's putting up a bad batting average in fewer total ABs while still being on the field because of all those walks.

Tier Three

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Willson Contreras	6	109	523	68	22	67	4	.246
Tyler Stephenson	7	132	479	61	14	56	0	.270
Keibert Ruiz	8	138	427	49	16	56	1	.271

This is the last group of catchers that I think have the chance to actually help your fantasy team's offense, although I would bet against any of them actually doing it. They all have a skill at the plate, at least, so they have to be elevated above the rest of the pack. Contreras is a positive for homers and RBI, and then Stephenson and Ruiz are younger players with pretty solid contact ability, so they are not going to crater your team in batting average like a lot of these names will.

This is probably my favorite tier to hit in two-catcher leagues, but these prices on them will probably have me looking even lower in one-catcher situations.

Tier Four

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Travis d'Arnaud	9	193	446	50	16	57	1	.251
Mitch Garver	10	188	410	53	20	55	1	.238
Adley Rutschman	11	174	416	50	14	49	2	.254
Christian Vazquez	12	199	442	48	10	47	6	.255

Now the playing time questions really set in. These guys are probably 70% players at best, and they all have at least one gaping hole in their game at the plate (not even counting steals in that). You could squeeze some decent batting average out of d'Arnaud, Rutschman, and Vazquez. Garver has some big-time pop when he's actually on the field. It's not a very exciting tier though, and the prices are still inside the top-200, so I don't see much reason to go here (unless you're a Rutschman truther, which I am not).

Tier Five

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Sean Murphy	13	232	426	49	18	51	0	.226
Elias Diaz	14	246	382	45	14	47	0	.259
Omar Narvaez	15	243	428	48	12	47	0	.251
Alejandro Kirk	16	227	330	41	14	46	1	.270
Gary Sanchez	17	244	405	52	23	58	0	.208

There's basically nothing left at this point. The playing time is solid enough for Murphy and Narvaez, but they aren't good hitters. The rest of these guys have very suspect playing time projections while also not being very good at the plate. My favorite here is Kirk, but he's not really a standalone catcher for your fantasy team given that he's basically in a 50/50 split with Danny Jansen.

Tier Six

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Mike Zunino	18	236	368	48	23	56	0	.204
Joey Bart	19	256	340	35	8	36	1	.239
Carson Kelly	20	262	388	44	14	49	0	.242

Three guys that can hit the long ball here. You would think Zunino would be higher up after his pretty nice 2021 season, but the fact that he had so much of his production against left-handed pitching makes me really wary of if he can come close to doing it again. Oh, and he'll probably hit .210.

Bart hasn't shown us much to get excited about in the Majors, but his top-prospect status might give you some hope for the future, and he should be locked into regular playing time with Buster Posey retiring. Kelly won't play a ton, but takes a lot of walks and has some power, so you could do worse.

I'm going to end it there because I doubt many leagues care much about catchers after the top-20 are gone.

My Catcher Strategy

I'll dip my toes into the Salvador Perez waters in two-catcher leagues, but I won't feel great about it when I do so. If he meets these projections, it will be worth it since he will be beating the rest of the field by a ton. However, catchers are inherently more risky than other offensive positions, so my general rule is to put as little draft capital into it as I can justify. That sends me towards Tiers Four and Five, but I'm not averse to reaching up a bit higher to grab a Keibert Ruiz or maybe even get crazy and buy the lottery ticket on Daulton Varsho.

Glad that's over, check back later for more!

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