Jon Anderson's Outfield Tiered Rankings and Projections, Part 1

3 years ago by Jon Anderson

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One more position to cover in my tiered rankings! We've gone over everything else so far, so check out the rest of those posts if you've missed them!

Today, we'll cover the first half of my outfield tiers. I have ranked 74 outfielders for this, and this post covers the first 40 of them. Once again, I have a bit of a different list as compared to what you see from the ADP, which I think makes things interesting here.

As always, you should really not be drafting your team just based on ranks. Every pick changes the landscape of your team in a categories situation, so you have to be very mindful of where you're strong and where you're weak. Anyways, let's proceed with the first six outfielder tiers!

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Tier 1 - The Elite or Possibly Elite

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Fernando Tatis Jr.	1	1.9	614	111	43	104	26	.285
Juan Soto	2	4	662	113	36	105	10	.313
Ronald Acuna Jr.	3	12	590	108	37	84	23	.281
Bryce Harper	4	9	645	104	37	101	14	.278
Mookie Betts	5	14	658	113	31	86	14	.280
Kyle Tucker	6	12	611	88	32	95	16	.279
Mike Trout	7	13	594	100	38	97	7	.281
Luis Robert	8	18	599	88	29	84	18	.286

I could have easily split this off into two tiers, probably drawing the line after Juan Soto there and putting him and Tatis in their own group. With so many tiers to cover, though, I figured I'd make this a bigger group.

There is a big difference between Tatis and Trout in terms of ceiling, and a big difference between Tatis and Robert in terms of the floor - so these players are certainly not interchangeable just because they're in the same tier. What is true to me though is that all of these guys have legitimate shots to be the #1 outfielder when the dust settles. They all contribute at least a little bit in steals, and they're all quite strong everywhere else as you can see by the projections.

I'm a big-time believer in Robert; I think we'll be seeing him as an easy top-10 pick next year - so I want to get my hands on this second-round value as often as I can.

Tier 2 - Missing A Little Something

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Teoscar Hernandez	9	29	596	87	34	96	11	.266
George Springer	10	57	591	95	35	84	6	.264
Starling Marte	11	32	604	92	17	66	37	.277
Yordan Alvarez	12	28	614	93	38	107	1	.281
Aaron Judge	13	36	627	98	39	97	5	.276
Cedric Mullins	14	32	643	89	23	64	27	.262

Each player here falls a bit short of great in at least one category, but these are all perfectly fine consolidation prizes as OF1 for your fantasy squad if you fill up infield first. Marte is a great guy to grab in the third or fourth round if you miss on steals with your first two picks, but you can see that he is lacking in the power categories which does hurt quite a bit. I'd rather not have to draft him, but if the draft falls that way, I'm perfectly happy taking him to catch up on steals in a hurry.

My favorite of the group is probably Yordan, who won't steal any bases, but I think he could be a league leader in homers and RBI while hitting above .290, and I don't think more than a handful of hitters even have that in the range. The leap of faith pick is Mullins, who was a top-five outfielder last year but there are some doubts about repeatability there.

Tier 3 - Enter the Risk

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Nick Castellanos	15	57	637	91	31	94	3	.279
Bryan Reynolds	16	90	630	84	25	85	5	.285
Byron Buxton	17	62	498	79	29	74	15	.270
Tyler O'Neill	18	49	542	79	31	82	13	.255
Whit Merrifield	19	31	656	88	12	65	30	.282
Ketel Marte	20	79	610	85	22	78	5	.292

There are three decent steals sources here, but this tier comes with a ton of risk in one way or another. We don't know where Castellanos will end up, and it will be interesting to see how much he was benefited from a few years in Great American Ballpark.

Buxton and O'Neill are the lottery tickets here, and they're quite expensive at that. They both have top-10 upside with their elite raw power and speed but have serious question marks in terms of health (Buxton) and strikeout rate (O'Neill).

I am willing to reach on Marte, but I'm drafting him to fill my second base slot, not outfield. I think this 22-homer projection is super soft, and I think his upside is legitimately 35 homers, 90 RBI, and a .300 batting average. He's a potential stud.

Tier 4

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Eloy Jimenez	21	59	586	75	31	92	1	.270
Giancarlo Stanton	22	90	579	79	35	93	1	.263
J.D. Martinez	23	85	625	85	30	95	1	.274
Randy Arozarena	24	58	598	86	23	72	19	.262
Jesse Winker	25	107	567	84	28	79	2	.286

You can still grab some steals here with Arozarena, but after you get outside of the top-50 ADP, it gets really tough to find them - that fact has elevated Arozarena's ADP once again despite his questionable power and batting average production. Eloy is the top dog here, but he's still more of a power specialist - although it's not crazy to think he could post quite a good batting average as well.

It is still pretty easy to find homers and RBI in this tier, but you're definitely giving up steals and probably batting average too from here on out.

Tier 5

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Cody Bellinger	26	95	574	81	28	82	9	.244
Christian Yelich	27	97	592	87	23	74	13	.264
Ryan Mountcastle	28	103	612	78	33	89	4	.263
Akil Baddoo	29	167	556	74	18	60	20	.244
Mitch Haniger	30	106	638	89	31	87	2	.248
Tommy Edman	31	86	617	83	12	58	23	.268
Kyle Schwarber	32	125	566	83	34	82	2	.244

Maybe I spoke too soon on the death of stolen bases because Edman and Baddoo are here in Tier 5. Those two are likely to bring your team down in power numbers, so this really is a "choice tier". You have the two potential fantasy studs at the top with Bellinger and Yelich, but it is probably foolish to think they can get back to their old ways with all the injury stuff they've been dealing with.

As for safety, there's not much here. You really can't be confident in what you'll get with any of these names, but there are reasons to draft all of them - again it's all about how you've built your team up to this point.

Tier 6

Player			Current Projections
Name	Rank	ADP	PA	R	HR	RBI	SB	AVG
Kris Bryant	33	88	587	84	23	72	7	.257
Jarred Kelenic	34	136	542	67	21	67	12	.233
Alex Verdugo	35	157	607	85	16	67	6	.286
Austin Meadows	36	133	570	78	25	82	6	.246
Trent Grisham	37	136	583	82	19	65	15	.246
Hunter Renfroe	38	164	552	75	32	86	2	.241
Joey Gallo	39	172	592	86	38	88	5	.210
Andrew Benintendi	40	198	556	67	17	69	10	.268

This tier rounds out my top-40. There is a ton of upside here, as I think guys like Kelenic, Meadows, Grisham, and Benintendi could all be 20/20 guys while not being completely murderous on batting average. I quite like this tier up and down. I will be dipping my toes in this tier in every draft I partake in.

My favorite is probably Kelenic just because of what he showed late last year, really crushing the ball and stealing some bags - his upside is enormous and he's priced down quite a bit because of how awful he was in his first stint last year. I also like the bounceback bet on Grisham, who should get the opportunity to lead off for the Padres after the departures of Adam Frazier and Tommy Pham - but that's far from a certainty.

Benintendi is also quite cheap, as his really solid 2021 season went largely unnoticed. You can feel pretty good about steals there, and even some decent batting average, and he should chip in at least a bit in homers.

That's it for the top six tiers, we'll cover the rest of my outfield rankings next time! Check back soon!

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