RADIO
We are just a couple of days away from the start of the Major League season. We have done a ton of research, drafted most of our teams, and are ready for the games to begin. With nearly all of the work done, it is time for the yearly tradition of bold predictions.
Some predictions may seem more straightforward than most. While some may make people think I am off my rocker. When making my bold predictions, I try and keep things within reason. I try and make bold predictions that have a chance of happening. There is a path to each player or team succeeding in these bold predictions.
The first bold prediction many of us were correct on was a 162 game season on tap. Now it is time to see how well the players play and if the results will follow up. I would love all of these to hit, but even 50% would be excellent. Most of the predictions involve players I am in on for fantasy purposes this season, so let’s hope they hit. For now, here are my 2022 Bold Predictions.
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Jo Adell hits 30 home runs and steals 20 bases
Not long ago, Adell was one of the top prospects in baseball. He has been very successful in the minors, including 23 home runs with eight stolen bases and a .289 batting average in 73 games at Triple-A last season. The problem is that his two short stints in the majors in 2020 and 2021 were less than great. Over 73 total games with the Angels, he has seven home runs, two stolen bases, and a .205 batting average.
With those rough appearances in the bigs, some were beginning to give up on the nearly 23-year-old outfielder. However, this spring, he is starting to show signs of life. Over 34 spring at-bats, he has hit three home runs, stole three bases, and hit .294. Sure, spring stats are not the end, but it is an excellent sign that he is looking good to start the season. Another good sign is the Angels releasing Justin Upton to all but shore up an everyday starting spot for Adell.
The 30 home runs are a believable achievement for Adell, assuming he plays nearly every day. He hit 27 home runs in 108 games between AAA and the majors last season. However, the steals is where things may get tricky, thus the bold prediction. Adell can run, and the fact he is 3 for 3 in steals this spring shows he wants to run and has succeeded thus far. Adell is in for a monster 2022, and he is about to show the doubters wrong with a 30/20 season.
Jazz Chisholm Jr. is this year's 30/30 performer
Of course, I had to have a Chisholm bold prediction after all my preseason love. In just 124 games last year, he hit 18 home runs and stole 23 bases. That is pretty impressive over only 124 games. However, most of Chisholm's pushback is injury concerns and his poor plate discipline. The plate discipline is valid, but the injuries I’ll fight back a little as part of the games missed last season were COVID-related.
When looking at the ATC projections, they have Chisholm playing 132 games with 21 home runs and 23 steals. I believe Jazz plays closer to 150 games and thus the 30/30 prediction. Even with poor plate discipline, he should play nearly every day as the Marlins do not have a better option than Jazz.
If he somehow finds regular at-bats near the top of the batting order, then he could make 30/30 even easier. However, if you are not on the Jazz train, I recommend getting out of the way as he is about to blaze through the 2022 season to 30/30.
Eduardo Rodriguez finishes top-five for the AL CY Young
Rodriguez is coming off a solid 2021 season after missing the 2020 season due to complications with COVID. He was able to pitch 157 innings after missing 2020 and throwing 203.1 innings in 2019. Last season Rodriguez had an ERA of 4.74, which would concern many, but his xFIP was 3.43, and his SIERA was 3.65, which shows he was pretty unlucky.
One of the important things that stood out for Rodriguez was a career worsts in BABIP at .363 and LOB rate of 68.9%. However, those stats should rebound nicely in 2022, especially with a better defense behind him in Detroit and a better pitcher’s ballpark.
Besides the advanced ratios being in Rodriguez’s favor, his strikeout rates were outstanding. Last year he struck out 27.4% of the batters he faced while walking 7.3%, good for an elite K-BB of 20.4%. The strikeouts should continue to rise for ERod while pitching against a poor AL Central division as he proves all the doubters wrong on his way to a strong AL CY Young finish.
Jordan Montgomery racks up over 200 strikeouts
Montgomery showcased outstanding improvements in 2021 with a 3.83 ERA and a 3.93 xFIP. The ratios were solid improvements off his injury-riddled 2019 and 2020 seasons, but more importantly, he was able to throw 157.1 innings over 30 starts. I think the innings are enormous as he could be in line for even more work in 2022, something along the line of 180-190 innings.
If Montgomery can increase the innings, then the strikeouts should follow. Last year he had a K/9 of 9.27 and had been suitable for at least one K/9 over the previous three seasons. He has had a K-rate over 24% the last three years, and if he can continue that with an increase in innings, then Montgomery could sneak into the 200 strikeout club and become a significant fantasy winner for teams.
Rhys Hoskins finishes as the second-best fantasy first baseman
Hoskins is coming off a solid 2021 season where he hit 27 home runs and hit .247 over 107 games. He missed the end of the season with an injury that he has had surgery on and looks good to go for 2022. When Hoskins has been able to play an entire season, he has been a stud with 30+ home runs, 90+ RBI, and runs with a respectable batting average.
With a healthy 2022 season, Hoskins could be in store for his biggest season. He will be hitting in a ridiculously loaded Phillies lineup in an excellent home ballpark. There’s no reason that Hoskins can’t hit 35+ home runs or even creep past 40. If he runs purely in the home run department, we could see 100+ runs and RBI, putting Hoskins in the elite territory at first base. I do not see Hoskins passing Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but I see him finishing just behind him for fantasy purposes in 2022.
Patrick Corbin is this year’s Robbie Ray
Many have scoffed at my declaration of Patrick Corbin being this season’s Robbie Ray. Sure, it will be challenging, but it is a bold prediction. Let’s not forget Ray wasn’t considered a CY Young pitcher was entering last season either. Corbin has shown a pedigree of being an ace, which was not too long ago. In 2019, Corbin had a 3.25 ERA over 202 innings pitched with a 28.5% strikeout rate and 20.1% K-BB.
It has been messy of late for Corbin. Last season he saw a massive increase in his HR/FB to 22.6% compared to his usual rate of around 15%. In addition, Corbin’s left-on base rate and strikeout rates took massive hits. Many of Corbin’s issues have been linked to a decrease in his fastball velocity, which increased in the second half of the season. If Corbin can increase his fastball velocity, continue to dominate with his slider, and decrease the home runs, we could see the next Robbie Ray.
Ryan McMahon hits over 30 HR and is the best fantasy player on the Rockies
Most of the chatter coming out of Rockies camp is about new Rockie Kris Bryant. However, let’s not forget the young stud playing all over the infield for the Rockies and should be locked into third base this season. McMahon is coming off back-to-back full seasons that saw him hit at least 23 home runs, score at least 70 runs, and drive in at least 83 runs. He has played in 141 and 151 games in those seasons, and it’s hard to believe for some, but there is room for improvement. Look for the 27-year-old McMahon to find that next level and return a massive fantasy season, leading the Rockies.
Bobby Witt Jr. wins AL ROY and top-five in AL MVP voting
The Royals made the right decision by bringing Bobby Witt Jr. with the team to start the season. He had nothing left to prove in the minors with a stat line of .290-33-99-97-29. That’s 29 steals, and he was even caught 11 other times. Now he will start with the big club, likely as the team’s third baseman. This spring, he is raking, hitting .400 with two home runs and two steals over 32 plate appearances. Witt will dominate this year and take Major League Baseball by storm.
Josh Donaldson hits 40 HR while scoring over 100 runs
I was all in on Donaldson with the Twins, but my excitement increased when he was traded to the Yankees. Donaldson is usually good for 30+ home runs each season, even when he misses some time. He is more durable than people think, but he is 130-140 games is all Donaldson needs for the home run total. The 100+ runs would be a bit harder as he hasn’t scored over 100 since 2016, and he was close 2019 with 96. However, I am all in on the runs because he appears to be leading off for the Yankees. His OBP skills have always been solid, so when he is not hitting home runs and just getting on base, he will have the loaded Yankees lineup behind him to help score those runs. Donaldson is in for a massive season with the Yankees.
The Royals and the Mariners both make the playoffs
We should see a few surprise teams enter the postseason with the expanded playoffs. Two surprise teams I like this year are the Royals and the Mariners. Both teams have made some significant improvements this offseason. They will also be entering the season with two of the more popular rookie of the year candidates, which could help the win column. They are in bad divisions, so they could surprise many and enter the postseason this October if the pitching can get it together.
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