ADP Champ or Chump: Kole Calhoun and Rafael Devers

Welcome! This column takes a deep dive into two player profiles to determine if they represent value at their current draft day cost or if you would be better off looking at similarly-priced options. We incorporate every grain of relevant data we can, including info from Baseball Savant, Roster Resource, FanGraphs, FantasyPros, and Baseball Prospectus. Interpreting some of this data is subjective, so there is plenty of opinion incorporated as well.

We're starting with two players who couldn't be farther apart in terms of how the community is valuing them. Kole Calhoun had a great 2019, but he appears to be a complete afterthought on draft day. Rafael Devers also had a great 2019, and he's taken so early that a repeat might not be enough to justify his cost.

Without further ado, let's take a closer look at what these players might be able to offer owners in redraft leagues in 2020:

Kole Calhoun (OF, ARI)

ADP: 287.2

Calhoun hit .232/.325/.467 with 33 HR over 632 PAs for the Angels in 2019 before signing with Arizona as a free agent. Thirty-three bombs are nothing to sneeze at, and his peripherals suggest that his power uptick was real. His batting average wasn't great, but his ballpark switch should help him improve it to an extent.

Calhoun's 22.9% HR/FB last season was a career-best, significantly higher than his career rate of 14.4%. However, all of his peripheral stats suggest that he legitimately hit the ball harder last year. His average airborne exit velocity reached 95 mph for the first time, continuing a three-year trend of increasing every season (92 mph in 2017, 94.4 in 2018). Likewise, his rate of Brls/BBE crossed into double digits at 11.2% (5.4% in 2017, 9.3% in 2018). He also pulled more of his fly balls (28.5%) than he has over his career (22.1%), making it easier to find the cheap seats.

Using Baseball Prospectus's ballpark factors, we see that Anaheim (110 HR factor) is a much better park for left-handed power than Arizona (96). This could prevent him from eclipsing 30 HR again, but his improved contact quality should land him comfortably in the 25-30 range. Furthermore, Arizona was the better ballpark for left-handed singles (103 vs. 97), doubles (102 vs. 93), and triples (170 vs. 91). Calhoun posted a .265 BABIP (career .289) last season, so a moderate rebound should be expected.

That said, Calhoun is still unlikely to post a league-average BABIP. He pulled 69.2% of his ground balls a season ago, causing opposing teams to shift him in 325 of 359 opportunities. National League opponents are likely to do the same thing, probably rendering his modest .195 career BABIP on ground balls unattainable. He also strikes out more often than you'd like (25.6 K% last year), but is patient enough (29% chase rate) to walk a lot (11.1 BB% last year) and recoup some value in formats that use OBP.

Baseball Savant's expected metrics feel that Calhoun underperformed relative to his contact quality in 2019, giving him an xBA of .247 and xSLG of .477. Roster Resource currently projects Calhoun to hit sixth in Arizona's lineup, but he should have an opportunity to earn his way to a better spot once the season begins. The 32-year-old was not a fluke last season, nor would it be surprising if he comes close to a repeat and turns a handsome fantasy profit in 2020.

Verdict: Champ (based on contact quality gains and a low draft day cost)

Rafael Devers (3B, BOS)

ADP: 24

Devers contributed in all five standard fantasy categories in 2019, slashing .311/.361/.555 with 32 HR and eight steals in 702 PAs. Before you get too excited about the steals, you should consider that he was also caught stealing eight times for a terrible 50% success rate. Most of his peripheral stats were also unchanged relative to his disappointing 2018 campaign (.240/.298/.433 with 21 HR in 490 PAs), suggesting that the 23-year-old may need to improve his game just to approach a repeat.

When comparing Devers's 2018 and 2019 seasons, the biggest difference is his plate discipline. He was almost exactly league-average in '18 (7.8 BB%, 24.7 K%) but well-above-average last season (6.8 BB%, 17 K%). Unfortunately, his gains look like a mirage. His 12 SwStr% was virtually identical to his career mark of 12.4%, while his 40.5% chase rate was a career-worst. His O-Contact% jumped to 71.9% from 63.5% in 2018, but swinging at everything and making contact on pitches outside the hitting zone is not indicative of improved plate discipline.

Likewise, we've seen many players join the fly-ball revolution and increase their power output in recent years. Devers did exactly the opposite in 2019, as his 34.3 FB% was significantly lower than the 38.6% mark he posted in 2018. His average airborne exit velocity increased slightly (from 95.3 mph to 96.3), but his rate of Brls/BBE barely budged (from 9.1% to 9.0%). He didn't pull any more fly balls (22.1%) than he has in the past (23.2% career) either. Honestly, a reasonable HR projection for Devers is probably around 25-30 too.

There are also red flags with his .339 BABIP (.321 career) last year. Devers posted a league-average 21.3 LD% after two consecutive seasons of 15.2% marks, one of the leading indicators of an unsustainable batting average. Opposing teams also shifted him in 303 0f 498 opportunities despite the fact that he doesn't really pull that many grounders (58.6%), enabling him to hit .343 against compromised infield defenses. Assuming that teams stop shifting him, he may lose some base hits he got last year.

Baseball Savant sees Devers as having deserved an xBA of .295 and xSLG of .519 last year, falling short of his actual marks. The departure of Mookie Betts also means that Devers won't get the same counting stat opportunities he enjoyed a season ago, though he is projected to hit in the middle of the order. Devers probably won't come to the plate 700 times again either.

The most likely outcome is something between his disappointing 2018 and stellar 2019, in which case you're probably better off drafting Pete Alonso (26.6 ADP), Aaron Judge (28.8), or Bryce Harper (22.2) if you want a hitter at that point. Taking a bankable pitcher such as Stephen Strasburg (23.6) or Shane Bieber (28.2) is also a better bet. There are just too many question marks here for that high of a price tag.

Verdict: Chump (based on middling peripherals and a very high price tag)

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