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Toronto may have come up short in the Francisco Lindor sweepstakes earlier this offseason, but they got a new middle infielder last week with the signing of Marcus Semien to a one-year deal.
Semien has played exclusively at shortstop throughout his career with Oakland, but he'll likely slide over to second base in Toronto with Bo Bichette remaining at short. He's provided decent production throughout his career, but in 2019 he exploded at the plate with an 8.9 WAR season and a third-place finish in the AL MVP race. Last year however was a different story as he recorded his worst offensive performance since 2014.
So the big question is what should managers expect this year? 2019 Semien, 2020 Semien, or something in between? Let's take a look.
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Maple Leaf Marcus
We'll start things off by comparing some of Semien's 2019 and 2020 rates:
| AVG | OBP | SLG | xBA | xSLG | K% | BB% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 | .285 | .369 | .522 | .275 | .503 | 13.7 | 11.6 |
| 2020 | .223 | .305 | .374 | .204 | .348 | 21.2 | 10.6 |
Across the board, Semien's numbers went down, and it appears that he was trying to swing for the fences more after his power explosion in 2019. Along with the increased strikeout rate, Semien had a career-high 68.5 percent Z-swing rate, a 9.3 percent swinging-strike rate and a 19.3 degree launch angle which led to a career-high 46.6 fly ball rate. The problem with all that though was he just wasn't making hard contact. His 86.2 mph exit velocity and 28.6 percent hard-hit rate were the lowest of his career, and his 23 percent soft-hit rate shattered his previous career-high of 18.4 percent while also marking an increase of almost 10 percent from 2019.
But even with all that, there was always going to be some regression from his 2019 power output. In his eight-year career, Semien has had only two seasons in which he posted a double-digit HR/FB rate: 2016 (14.7%) and 2019 (15.3%). Outside of those two years Semien's HR/FB rate has bounced between 7.8 percent and 9.7 percent, including a 9.3 percent rate last year.
This is mostly speculation, but it's possible part of the drop in numbers last year could be in part due to injury. Semien missed a few games due to "soreness in his left side", which is an issue that he reportedly had played through in each of the prior two seasons. Granted that report means that he dealt with this injury during his breakout 2019 season and it didn't appear to slow him down then. But it's possible that it could have been affecting him more in 2020, as it was enough to cause Semien to miss time and snap a streak of 276 consecutive games played. A side injury could partly explain the weaker contact he was recording last year. So if we assume part of his decline in 2020 was due to playing through injury, what can we expect out of him this year?
2021 Outlook
Now here's part of the conundrum in projecting what to expect for his average this year. If you look at his expected batting average of .204, Semien should have theoretically performed worse than he actually did (.223), which suggests he was somewhat lucky. But then you look at his .260 BABIP last year which was both a career-worst and over 30 points lower than his career average, which suggests he was somewhat unlucky. It's pretty much a toss-up as to which average managers should buy into more — .223 last year or .285 in 2019. Until we see how he looks in Spring Training, managers should conservatively project Semien to have a .240 average with the potential to significantly surpass that mark.
Semien's power output could benefit from playing in Toronto, as the Rogers Centre has somewhat smaller dimensions than the Oakland Coliseum. But managers shouldn't get excited about another potential 30-homer campaign. Instead, look for him to hit 18 to 25 home runs to go along with his usual 10 to 15 steals. And with a lineup around him that includes George Springer, Bo Bichette, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Cavan Biggio, Semien should have little trouble reaching 80 runs and 80 RBI.
Currently, Semien has an ADP of 146, making him the 16th shortstop coming off the board. Even without reaching his 2019 form managers should consider grabbing Semien higher than spot, or at the very least consider drafting him over guys like Jonathan Villar (ADP 140), Carlos Correa (ADP 128) or Dansby Swanson (ADP 105). Pick 105 though should be about the highest that managers consider grabbing him.
And now, we'll briefly look at the situation in Oakland. With Semien's departure, Fangraphs' RosterResource projects Chad Pinder taking over at shortstop. Pinder has primarily played in the outfield but does have some time playing in the middle infield. He slashed .232/.295/.393 last year, but his .247 xBA and .456 xSLG suggest he should have done better. Pinder's got 15-home run potential and currently owns a 531 ADP. He could be a solid pickup in 14-team and deeper leagues, or a good replacement off the waiver-wire in shallower leagues in case of injuries.
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