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Michael Florio's Updated Draft Rankings vs Industry Consensus

Every single season there is a hunger for fantasy football rankings. Every single season people draft their entire fantasy football team off of a list of names ordered by their favorite analysts or site. And every year those people make the most common mistake when it comes to rankings!

The mistake so many fantasy players make is treating rankings like an “end-all-be-all” rather than using them as a guide. That is all they really are. The next step is learning how to properly use that guide. After all, you don’t want to follow rankings blindly like Kevin in The League does.

That's what I'm here for. I will provide some insight as to my own rankings, how I came to those decisions, and why they differ from industry consensus.

Editor's Note: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, rankings, projections, 15 lineup tools and daily Premium DFS research/tools including our Lineup Optimizer, Research Station and so much more! Sign Up Now!

 

Michael Florio's 2020 PPR Draft Rankings

At the bottom of this article you can see the Half-PPR and Standard rankings too:

Rank Player Name Team Position ECR vs. ECR
1 Christian McCaffrey CAR RB 1 0
2 Saquon Barkley NYG RB 2 0
3 Alvin Kamara NO RB 4 1
4 Ezekiel Elliott DAL RB 3 -1
5 Dalvin Cook MIN RB 6 1
6 Clyde Edwards-Helaire KC RB 9 3
7 Austin Ekeler LAC RB 12 5
8 Kenyan Drake ARI RB 17 9
9 Michael Thomas NO WR 5 -4
10 Davante Adams GB WR 7 -3
11 Miles Sanders PHI RB 15 4
12 Derrick Henry TEN RB 8 -4
13 Joe Mixon CIN RB 13 0
14 Julio Jones ATL WR 10 -4
15 Josh Jacobs LV RB 20 5
16 Tyreek Hill KC WR 11 -5
17 Nick Chubb CLE RB 24 7
18 George Kittle SF TE 19 1
19 Travis Kelce KC TE 18 -1
20 Allen Robinson CHI WR 21 1
21 Adam Thielen MIN WR 29 8
22 DeAndre Hopkins ARI WR 14 -8
23 Chris Carson SEA RB 38 15
24 Lamar Jackson BAL QB 30 6
25 Chris Godwin TB WR 16 -9
26 Jonathan Taylor IND RB 51 25
27 JuJu Smith-Schuster PIT WR 28 1
28 Robert Woods LAR WR 32 4
29 D.J. Moore CAR WR 26 -3
30 Aaron Jones GB RB 23 -7
31 Kenny Golladay DET WR 22 -9
32 Zach Ertz PHI TE 40 8
33 Tyler Lockett SEA WR 44 11
34 Cooper Kupp LAR WR 34 0
35 A.J. Brown TEN WR 41 6
36 David Johnson HOU RB 48 12
37 Mark Andrews BAL TE 35 -2
38 James Conner PIT RB 37 -1
39 Calvin Ridley ATL WR 36 -3
40 Odell Beckham Jr. CLE WR 31 -9
41 Terry McLaurin WAS WR 43 2
42 Patrick Mahomes KC QB 25 -17
43 Cam Akers LAR RB 65 22
44 Mike Evans TB WR 27 -17
45 D.J. Chark JAC WR 42 -3
46 Le'Veon Bell NYJ RB 46 0
47 Mark Ingram II BAL RB 60 13
48 Amari Cooper DAL WR 33 -15
49 DeVante Parker MIA WR 55 6
50 D.K. Metcalf SEA WR 52 2
51 Melvin Gordon DEN RB 47 -4
52 Dak Prescott DAL QB 53 1
53 Kyler Murray ARI QB 62 9
54 Deshaun Watson HOU QB 63 9
55 Stefon Diggs BUF WR 59 4
56 Courtland Sutton DEN WR 50 -6
57 Marquise Brown BAL WR 67 10
58 Russell Wilson SEA QB 57 -1
59 Tyler Higbee LAR TE 82 23
60 Keenan Allen LAC WR 45 -15
61 T.Y. Hilton IND WR 56 -5
62 D'Andre Swift DET RB 74 12
63 Todd Gurley ATL RB 39 -24
64 Josh Allen BUF QB 79 15
65 Darren Waller LV TE 54 -11
66 Tyler Boyd CIN WR 61 -5
67 Will Fuller HOU WR 75 8
68 Michael Gallup DAL WR 66 -2
69 Kareem Hunt CLE RB 58 -11
70 Raheem Mostert SF RB 68 -2
71 Jordan Howard MIA RB 96 25
72 Deebo Samuel SF WR 91 19
73 Leonard Fournette TB RB 49 -24
74 Devin Singletary BUF RB 73 -1
75 Evan Engram NYG TE 71 -4
76 A.J. Green CIN WR 70 -6
77 Hayden Hurst ATL TE 90 13
78 Jarvis Landry CLE WR 64 -14
79 Julian Edelman NE WR 69 -10
80 Marvin Jones DET WR 77 -3
81 Diontae Johnson PIT WR 86 5
82 CeeDee Lamb DAL WR 99 17
83 Phillip Lindsay DEN RB 95 12
84 David Montgomery CHI RB 76 -8
85 Zack Moss BUF RB 105 20
86 Brandin Cooks HOU WR 81 -5
87 Jamison Crowder NYJ WR 85 -2
88 Anthony Miller CHI WR 100 12
89 Matt Ryan ATL QB 80 -9
90 Rob Gronkowski TB TE 119 29
91 Preston Williams MIA WR 103 12
92 Drew Brees NO QB 89 -3
93 Christian Kirk ARI WR 87 -6
94 Hunter Henry LAC TE 84 -10
95 Carson Wentz PHI QB 88 -7
96 Emmanuel Sanders NO WR 104 8
97 Darius Slayton NYG WR 106 9
98 Matt Breida MIA RB 98 0
99 Antonio Gibson WAS RB 83 -16
100 Bryce Love WAS RB 192 92
101 Matthew Stafford DET QB 97 -4
102 Tom Brady TB QB 92 -10
103 Breshad Perriman NYJ WR 155 52
104 Cam Newton NE QB 113 9
105 Jack Doyle IND TE 138 33
106 Mike Gesicki MIA TE 109 3
107 Tarik Cohen CHI RB 78 -29
108 J.K. Dobbins BAL RB 93 -15
109 Mecole Hardman KC WR 135 26
110 Golden Tate NYG WR 110 0
111 Daniel Jones NYG QB 116 5
112 Gardner Minshew II JAC QB 145 33
113 Joe Burrow CIN QB 134 21
114 Ryan Tannehill TEN QB 132 18
115 Austin Hooper CLE TE 108 -7
116 Tevin Coleman SF RB 118 2
117 Ronald Jones II TB RB 107 -10
118 Marlon Mack IND RB 120 2
119 Kerryon Johnson DET RB 117 -2
120 Damien Harris NE RB 168 48
121 Chris Herndon IV NYJ TE 146 25
122 Jared Goff LAR QB 121 -1
123 Ben Roethlisberger PIT QB 114 -9
124 Sony Michel NE RB 130 6
125 Jonnu Smith TEN TE 127 2
126 Sterling Shepard NYG WR 94 -32
127 John Brown BUF WR 101 -26
128 Latavius Murray NO RB 112 -16
129 Chris Thompson JAC RB 131 2
130 Noah Fant DEN TE 124 -6
131 Jared Cook NO TE 111 -20
132 N'Keal Harry NE WR 141 9
133 James White NE RB 72 -61
134 Devine Ozigbo JAC RB 264 130
135 Brandon Aiyuk SF WR 150 15
136 T.J. Hockenson DET TE 122 -14
137 Dallas Goedert PHI TE 126 -11
138 DeSean Jackson PHI WR 147 9
139 Teddy Bridgewater CAR QB 167 28
140 Aaron Rodgers GB QB 102 -38
141 James Robinson JAC RB 323 182
142 Irv Smith Jr. MIN TE 171 29
143 Jalen Reagor PHI WR 133 -10
144 Blake Jarwin DAL TE 136 -8
145 Jerry Jeudy DEN WR 115 -30
146 Bryan Edwards LV WR 203 57
147 Henry Ruggs III LV WR 123 -24
148 Jace Sternberger GB TE 233 85
149 Steven Sims WAS WR 185 36
150 Allen Lazard GB WR 137 -13
151 Justin Jefferson MIN WR 139 -12
152 Randall Cobb HOU WR 179 27
153 Michael Pittman Jr. IND WR 162 9
154 Parris Campbell IND WR 159 5
155 Sammy Watkins KC WR 154 -1
156 Laviska Shenault Jr. JAC WR 174 18
157 Mike Williams LAC WR 128 -29
158 Pittsburgh Steelers PIT DST 161 3
159 Baltimore Ravens BAL DST 163 4
160 Buffalo Bills BUF DST 170 10
161 Ian Thomas CAR TE 166 5
162 San Francisco 49ers SF DST 160 -2
163 Greg Olsen SEA TE 198 35
164 Los Angeles Rams LAR DST 200 36
165 New England Patriots NE DST 173 8
166 Minnesota Vikings MIN DST 196 30
167 Kyle Rudolph MIN TE 218 51
168 Justin Tucker BAL K 177 9
169 Kansas City Chiefs KC DST 189 20
170 Harrison Butker KC K 175 5
171 Greg Zuerlein DAL K 191 20
172 Wil Lutz NO K 181 9
173 Los Angeles Chargers LAC DST 210 37
174 Denver Broncos DEN DST 206 32
175 Jake Elliott PHI K 219 44
176 Tampa Bay Buccaneers TB DST 237 61
177 Hunter Renfrow LV WR 172 -5
178 Dawson Knox BUF TE 228 50
179 Curtis Samuel CAR WR 151 -28
180 Chicago Bears CHI DST 180 0
181 Robby Anderson CAR WR 148 -33
182 New Orleans Saints NO DST 178 -4
183 Russell Gage ATL WR 224 41
184 Matt Gay FA K 266 82
185 Ka'imi Fairbairn HOU K 225 40
186 Tennessee Titans TEN DST 216 30
187 John Ross CIN WR 214 27
188 Younghoe Koo ATL K 243 55
189 Cole Beasley BUF WR 193 4
190 Corey Davis TEN WR 186 -4
191 Mason Crosby GB K 240 49
192 Green Bay Packers GB DST 231 39
193 Larry Fitzgerald ARI WR 169 -24
194 Robbie Gould SF K 205 11
195 Alshon Jeffery PHI WR 187 -8
196 Philadelphia Eagles PHI DST 207 11
197 Kendrick Bourne SF WR 263 66
198 Eric Ebron PIT TE 156 -42
199 Chase McLaughlin MIN K 327 128
200 Indianapolis Colts IND DST 223 23
201 Gerald Everett LAR TE 226 25
202 Stephen Gostkowski TEN K 304 102
203 James Washington PIT WR 183 -20
204 Kenny Stills HOU WR 220 16
205 John Hightower PHI WR 411 206
206 O.J. Howard TB TE 204 -2
207 Dallas Cowboys DAL DST 239 32
208 Michael Badgley LAC K 238 30
209 Washington Football Team WAS DST 284 75
210 Brett Maher FA K 329 119
211 Matt Prater DET K 209 -2
212 Jason Myers SEA K 251 39
213 Dan Arnold ARI TE 331 118
214 Logan Thomas WAS TE 342 128
215 David Njoku CLE TE 271 56
216 Auden Tate CIN WR 269 53
217 Josh Gordon SEA WR 356 139
218 Josh Reynolds LAR WR 248 30
219 Tee Higgins CIN WR 221 2
220 Cleveland Browns CLE DST 247 27
221 C.J. Uzomah CIN TE 310 89
222 Kaden Smith NYG TE 403 181
223 Chris Boswell PIT K 255 32
224 Atlanta Falcons ATL DST 296 72
225 Seattle Seahawks SEA DST 229 4
226 Dan Bailey MIN K 241 15
227 Vance McDonald PIT TE 289 62
228 Aldrick Rosas FA K 338 110
229 Brandon McManus DEN K 253 24
230 Tyler Eifert JAC TE 249 19
231 Josh Lambo JAC K 283 52
232 Nick Boyle BAL TE 346 114
233 Will Dissly SEA TE 245 12
234 Daniel Carlson LV K 297 63
235 Austin Seibert CLE K 278 43
236 New York Jets NYJ DST 254 18
237 Devin Asiasi NE TE 336 99
238 Houston Texans HOU DST 273 35
239 Dustin Hopkins WAS K 308 69
240 Zane Gonzalez ARI K 217 -23
241 Miami Dolphins MIA DST 351 110
242 Jacksonville Jaguars JAC DST 292 50
243 Dalton Keene NE TE 406 163
244 Detroit Lions DET DST 301 57
245 Joey Slye CAR K 265 20
246 Darren Fells HOU TE 311 65
247 Tyler Bass BUF K 362 115
248 Arizona Cardinals ARI DST 320 72
249 Stephen Hauschka FA K 313 64
250 Jeremy Sprinkle WAS TE 383 133
251 Cameron Brate TB TE 306 55
252 Trey Burton IND TE 324 72
253 Carolina Panthers CAR DST 305 52
254 New York Giants NYG DST 370 116
255 Las Vegas Raiders LV DST 333 78

 

Florio vs the World

My advice with rankings (especially while drafting) is to always to dissect your team as you go and find any weaknesses you may have. If you look at your team and feel you built a safe base but are lacking some upside, taking the highest-ranked player could hurt. Let’s say you are targeting a WR and look at the rankings you are using and realize the highest-ranked player is Julian Edelman, but right near him is Will Fuller. If you go by the rankings you will draft Edelman, but in a scenario like that knowing that your team lacks upside the play I would recommend is Fuller.

It’s why I am a big fan of tiered rankings. Because that way you can see the grouping of players that I think belong together. This gives you a general sense of the players in that range you should be targeting. But, inside that tier, you should be looking for the player that best fits your need. If you have a lot of safe players, go for upside. If you have a lot of players with upside but come with question marks, it may be best to a more proven player in the tier. Rankings are important in fantasy football but using them properly is just as important as having a good list on names!

Below are players that I am higher or lower on than consensus. For consensus, I will be using FantasyPros, which utilizes rankings from some of the top fantasy analysts and give an average rank. I then use that average rank and determine the players I have higher and lower than the field. I will explain why I feel the way I do with each player.

 

Running Backs

JaMycal Hasty is the player I disagree with the most with the consensus. If you listen to RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (moving 6am to 8am Saturday and Sunday) you have heard me mention Hasty before. Look, he is an undrafted free agent, so he doesn’t come with really any hype at all. But there is a reason I have him 60 spots higher than the average ranker. The thing is, it doesn’t have a whole lot to do with Hasty himself.

Any back that I can get a last-round flier on in Kyle Shanahan’s offense? Yes please! He is going to start getting more and more popular now that Raheem Mostert has requested a trade. I was off of Mostert well before any trade rumors too. You can read about that (as well as other backs I am low on here)!

Joshua Kelley is someone I am higher on by over 20 spots in the rankings according to FantasyPros. That may seem contradictory since I am driving the Austin Ekeler hype train, but I do think Kelley has a role on this team. I continue to say I expect this backfield to operate much like the Saints. I expect Ekeler to dominate all passing duties, while also sharing carries out of the backfield with Kelley. Kelley has the chance to also become the goal line back. His upside is capped given Ekeler’s involvement, but Kelley is so cheap in drafts that he becomes a worthwhile gamble in rounds 12 or 13, sometimes even later.

I am a big believer that the rookie running backs possess a ton of upside in fantasy this season. In many of these instances, there is a rookie back coming in to compete with an incumbent back. In many of these cases, the downside for the rookie is they will have to share touches. But the upside is they can run away with this backfield and dominate opportunities. I do not feel this way about the incumbent backs, because they were on the roster and the team still went out and drafted a back early.

I am higher on Ke’Shawn Vaughn (+8), Cam Akers (+6), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+6), Jonathan Taylor (+4) and Zack Moss (+2). Oddly enough the rookie I am lowest on is J.K. Dobbins (-6) but I am considering changing that. The reason I am scared though is because I value Mark Ingram higher than the other incumbent backs, plus there is also Gus Edwards there who could steal some touches. I like Dobbins, especially long-term, I just worry that this year the backfield may just be a little too crowded to live up to expectations. But if Ingram gets hurt, watch out!

The backs I am lowest on are the ones that I view as having little to no upside. If you haven’t read my 2020 fantasy football strategy article, it is all about trying to capitalize on as many upside shots as possible in the middle to safer rounds. The argument against safe floor players with little upside is that you hold onto them all year, likely only start them during bye weeks or if someone gets injured, and when you have to use them, your starting lineup is already worse by switching from a starter to a bench option.

Meanwhile, if you keep taking upside shots and some hit, you are going to be a powerhouse. To me, I would rather miss the playoffs trying to build a championship-caliber team than make the playoffs as the fifth seed and get bounced in round one. There are many safe backs that fit that category that I am lower on than consensus. I have James White 12 spots lower than his average rank. Is he going to finish higher than I have him ranked? Probably. But there are RBs that have higher ceilings that go around where he goes that I would simply rather take a shot on. Having White the last couple of seasons, I can tell you he may help you win a week when you’re in a pinch, but he will not win you a title, especially with Cam Newton and not Tom Brady. Others than fall into this group are Sony Michel (-5), Tarik Cohen (-6), Kerryon Johnson (-6), Patrick Laird (-8) and most of all Jamaal Williams (-16) and Adrian Peterson (-16).

 

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen is a WR1 for me. In fact, in PPR he is my WR6, six spots ahead of his average ranking. Too many people are forgetting that Thielen was the WR7 in 2018 and was averaging 16.45 fantasy PPG in Weeks 1-6 last season, before injuring his hamstring. That injury really just ruined Thielen’s season as we saw him try to return and injure it. That injury is now behind him and Stefon Diggs is now in Buffalo. Meaning that there is plenty of work up for grabs in Minnesota. The Vikings may be a run-first team, but when they decide to throw you can expect them to go Thielen’s way constantly. The best part is you get him at a discount due to last year’s injury!

Marquise Brown is someone I have written and spoke about a bunch this offseason, so it is no surprise I have him seven spots higher than consensus. Brown was not healthy at any point last season. He had a screw put into his foot that forced him to miss the combine and much of the summer. Brown himself said he did not have his normal burst or top speed and by the end of the season his foot was mangled. Now he is healthy, more comfortable in the NFL and on a prolific offense where teams will not really be able to double team him. Good luck guarding this guy one-on-one.

I am way higher on Marquise's cousin Antonio Brown than the consensus. How much higher? Apparently 53 spots higher, which to me is shocking since I still have him ranked as a WR5. Look, we all know the hurdles AB still has to jump: a team needs to sign him and he needs to serve a possible suspension. But he goes so cheap and we all know the upside he possesses. You can nab someone who has WR1 upside when on the field in the reserve rounds? Yes, please! He has been getting more hype lately though as rumors about him fly.

Other Wide Receivers I am higher on than consensus: Breshad Perriman (+20), John Ross (+16), Steven Sims (+14), Tyler Lockett (+8), CeeDee Lamb (+7), Anthony Miller (+6), Preston Williams (+6), Jalen Reagor (+6), N’Keal Harry (+6), Diontae Johnson (+5), Darius Slayton (+5) and DK Metcalf (+4).

Mike Evans (-7) is a player I am lower on and have been vocal about it this offseason. He now has a QB that doesn’t air the ball out or throw out wide as much as his former QB. I expect the Bucs to pass less in general as I think they will be trailing less.

Keenan Allen (-8) has been my guy for years. Ever since he got labeled as injury-prone for tearing his ACL and having his spleen rupture, he was a value. But that changes for me this season with the move at QB from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor. In Taylor’s three seasons with the Bills, the only receiver he had top 120 fantasy points was Sammy Watkins in 2015. The only other receiver to top 100 fantasy points was Robert Woods. Allen could prove me wrong, but even if he does, he provides more of a safe floor rather than a high ceiling. And there are so many receivers in his range with higher upside.

Amari Cooper (-5) finished as the WR10 last season and yet you have to pay an even higher price to get him (WR9) in FFPC drafts. With CeeDee Lamb now on board, still with Michael Gallup and Blake Jarwin set to take over the Jason Witten role, there are a lot of mouths in this offense. Paying that price for Cooper, who does have a knack of being inconsistent week to week, just feels like paying for the ceiling. I will let others take him and target his teammates later in the draft.

 

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle (+7) is a tight end I am definitely higher on than others. I believe Doyle could see the volume to finish as a low-end TE1. Rivers has always featured a tight end in his offense. First it was Antonio Gates and then Hunter Henry. Now Doyle won’t be those guys, but he is very much so in the mix for targets behind T.Y. Hilton. There is also no more Eric Ebron for him to have to split reps with. You can get Doyle as a TE2, but there’s upside to outlive that purely on volume alone.

Other tight ends I am higher on than consensus: Jace Sternberger (+8), Hayden Hurst (+3), Rob Gronkowski (+3), Chris Herndon (+3).

Other tight ends I am lower on than consensus: Blake Jarwin (-8), Austin Hooper (-6), Eric Ebron (-6), Jared Cook (-4).

If you have any rankings questions, hit me up on Twitter @MichaelFFlorio

 

Florio's Full Fantasy Football Draft Rankings



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