Michael Florio's Updated Draft Rankings vs Industry Consensus

Every single season there is a hunger for fantasy football rankings. Every single season people draft their entire fantasy football team off of a list of names ordered by their favorite analysts or site. And every year those people make the most common mistake when it comes to rankings!

The mistake so many fantasy players make is treating rankings like an “end-all-be-all” rather than using them as a guide. That is all they really are. The next step is learning how to properly use that guide. After all, you don’t want to follow rankings blindly like Kevin in The League does.

That's what I'm here for. I will provide some insight as to my own rankings, how I came to those decisions, and why they differ from industry consensus.

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Michael Florio's 2020 PPR Draft Rankings

At the bottom of this article you can see the Half-PPR and Standard rankings too:

Rank	Player Name	Team	Position	ECR	vs. ECR
1	Christian McCaffrey	CAR	RB	1	0
2	Saquon Barkley	NYG	RB	2	0
3	Alvin Kamara	NO	RB	4	1
4	Ezekiel Elliott	DAL	RB	3	-1
5	Dalvin Cook	MIN	RB	6	1
6	Clyde Edwards-Helaire	KC	RB	9	3
7	Austin Ekeler	LAC	RB	12	5
8	Kenyan Drake	ARI	RB	17	9
9	Michael Thomas	NO	WR	5	-4
10	Davante Adams	GB	WR	7	-3
11	Miles Sanders	PHI	RB	15	4
12	Derrick Henry	TEN	RB	8	-4
13	Joe Mixon	CIN	RB	13	0
14	Julio Jones	ATL	WR	10	-4
15	Josh Jacobs	LV	RB	20	5
16	Tyreek Hill	KC	WR	11	-5
17	Nick Chubb	CLE	RB	24	7
18	George Kittle	SF	TE	19	1
19	Travis Kelce	KC	TE	18	-1
20	Allen Robinson	CHI	WR	21	1
21	Adam Thielen	MIN	WR	29	8
22	DeAndre Hopkins	ARI	WR	14	-8
23	Chris Carson	SEA	RB	38	15
24	Lamar Jackson	BAL	QB	30	6
25	Chris Godwin	TB	WR	16	-9
26	Jonathan Taylor	IND	RB	51	25
27	JuJu Smith-Schuster	PIT	WR	28	1
28	Robert Woods	LAR	WR	32	4
29	D.J. Moore	CAR	WR	26	-3
30	Aaron Jones	GB	RB	23	-7
31	Kenny Golladay	DET	WR	22	-9
32	Zach Ertz	PHI	TE	40	8
33	Tyler Lockett	SEA	WR	44	11
34	Cooper Kupp	LAR	WR	34	0
35	A.J. Brown	TEN	WR	41	6
36	David Johnson	HOU	RB	48	12
37	Mark Andrews	BAL	TE	35	-2
38	James Conner	PIT	RB	37	-1
39	Calvin Ridley	ATL	WR	36	-3
40	Odell Beckham Jr.	CLE	WR	31	-9
41	Terry McLaurin	WAS	WR	43	2
42	Patrick Mahomes	KC	QB	25	-17
43	Cam Akers	LAR	RB	65	22
44	Mike Evans	TB	WR	27	-17
45	D.J. Chark	JAC	WR	42	-3
46	Le'Veon Bell	NYJ	RB	46	0
47	Mark Ingram II	BAL	RB	60	13
48	Amari Cooper	DAL	WR	33	-15
49	DeVante Parker	MIA	WR	55	6
50	D.K. Metcalf	SEA	WR	52	2
51	Melvin Gordon	DEN	RB	47	-4
52	Dak Prescott	DAL	QB	53	1
53	Kyler Murray	ARI	QB	62	9
54	Deshaun Watson	HOU	QB	63	9
55	Stefon Diggs	BUF	WR	59	4
56	Courtland Sutton	DEN	WR	50	-6
57	Marquise Brown	BAL	WR	67	10
58	Russell Wilson	SEA	QB	57	-1
59	Tyler Higbee	LAR	TE	82	23
60	Keenan Allen	LAC	WR	45	-15
61	T.Y. Hilton	IND	WR	56	-5
62	D'Andre Swift	DET	RB	74	12
63	Todd Gurley	ATL	RB	39	-24
64	Josh Allen	BUF	QB	79	15
65	Darren Waller	LV	TE	54	-11
66	Tyler Boyd	CIN	WR	61	-5
67	Will Fuller	HOU	WR	75	8
68	Michael Gallup	DAL	WR	66	-2
69	Kareem Hunt	CLE	RB	58	-11
70	Raheem Mostert	SF	RB	68	-2
71	Jordan Howard	MIA	RB	96	25
72	Deebo Samuel	SF	WR	91	19
73	Leonard Fournette	TB	RB	49	-24
74	Devin Singletary	BUF	RB	73	-1
75	Evan Engram	NYG	TE	71	-4
76	A.J. Green	CIN	WR	70	-6
77	Hayden Hurst	ATL	TE	90	13
78	Jarvis Landry	CLE	WR	64	-14
79	Julian Edelman	NE	WR	69	-10
80	Marvin Jones	DET	WR	77	-3
81	Diontae Johnson	PIT	WR	86	5
82	CeeDee Lamb	DAL	WR	99	17
83	Phillip Lindsay	DEN	RB	95	12
84	David Montgomery	CHI	RB	76	-8
85	Zack Moss	BUF	RB	105	20
86	Brandin Cooks	HOU	WR	81	-5
87	Jamison Crowder	NYJ	WR	85	-2
88	Anthony Miller	CHI	WR	100	12
89	Matt Ryan	ATL	QB	80	-9
90	Rob Gronkowski	TB	TE	119	29
91	Preston Williams	MIA	WR	103	12
92	Drew Brees	NO	QB	89	-3
93	Christian Kirk	ARI	WR	87	-6
94	Hunter Henry	LAC	TE	84	-10
95	Carson Wentz	PHI	QB	88	-7
96	Emmanuel Sanders	NO	WR	104	8
97	Darius Slayton	NYG	WR	106	9
98	Matt Breida	MIA	RB	98	0
99	Antonio Gibson	WAS	RB	83	-16
100	Bryce Love	WAS	RB	192	92
101	Matthew Stafford	DET	QB	97	-4
102	Tom Brady	TB	QB	92	-10
103	Breshad Perriman	NYJ	WR	155	52
104	Cam Newton	NE	QB	113	9
105	Jack Doyle	IND	TE	138	33
106	Mike Gesicki	MIA	TE	109	3
107	Tarik Cohen	CHI	RB	78	-29
108	J.K. Dobbins	BAL	RB	93	-15
109	Mecole Hardman	KC	WR	135	26
110	Golden Tate	NYG	WR	110	0
111	Daniel Jones	NYG	QB	116	5
112	Gardner Minshew II	JAC	QB	145	33
113	Joe Burrow	CIN	QB	134	21
114	Ryan Tannehill	TEN	QB	132	18
115	Austin Hooper	CLE	TE	108	-7
116	Tevin Coleman	SF	RB	118	2
117	Ronald Jones II	TB	RB	107	-10
118	Marlon Mack	IND	RB	120	2
119	Kerryon Johnson	DET	RB	117	-2
120	Damien Harris	NE	RB	168	48
121	Chris Herndon IV	NYJ	TE	146	25
122	Jared Goff	LAR	QB	121	-1
123	Ben Roethlisberger	PIT	QB	114	-9
124	Sony Michel	NE	RB	130	6
125	Jonnu Smith	TEN	TE	127	2
126	Sterling Shepard	NYG	WR	94	-32
127	John Brown	BUF	WR	101	-26
128	Latavius Murray	NO	RB	112	-16
129	Chris Thompson	JAC	RB	131	2
130	Noah Fant	DEN	TE	124	-6
131	Jared Cook	NO	TE	111	-20
132	N'Keal Harry	NE	WR	141	9
133	James White	NE	RB	72	-61
134	Devine Ozigbo	JAC	RB	264	130
135	Brandon Aiyuk	SF	WR	150	15
136	T.J. Hockenson	DET	TE	122	-14
137	Dallas Goedert	PHI	TE	126	-11
138	DeSean Jackson	PHI	WR	147	9
139	Teddy Bridgewater	CAR	QB	167	28
140	Aaron Rodgers	GB	QB	102	-38
141	James Robinson	JAC	RB	323	182
142	Irv Smith Jr.	MIN	TE	171	29
143	Jalen Reagor	PHI	WR	133	-10
144	Blake Jarwin	DAL	TE	136	-8
145	Jerry Jeudy	DEN	WR	115	-30
146	Bryan Edwards	LV	WR	203	57
147	Henry Ruggs III	LV	WR	123	-24
148	Jace Sternberger	GB	TE	233	85
149	Steven Sims	WAS	WR	185	36
150	Allen Lazard	GB	WR	137	-13
151	Justin Jefferson	MIN	WR	139	-12
152	Randall Cobb	HOU	WR	179	27
153	Michael Pittman Jr.	IND	WR	162	9
154	Parris Campbell	IND	WR	159	5
155	Sammy Watkins	KC	WR	154	-1
156	Laviska Shenault Jr.	JAC	WR	174	18
157	Mike Williams	LAC	WR	128	-29
158	Pittsburgh Steelers	PIT	DST	161	3
159	Baltimore Ravens	BAL	DST	163	4
160	Buffalo Bills	BUF	DST	170	10
161	Ian Thomas	CAR	TE	166	5
162	San Francisco 49ers	SF	DST	160	-2
163	Greg Olsen	SEA	TE	198	35
164	Los Angeles Rams	LAR	DST	200	36
165	New England Patriots	NE	DST	173	8
166	Minnesota Vikings	MIN	DST	196	30
167	Kyle Rudolph	MIN	TE	218	51
168	Justin Tucker	BAL	K	177	9
169	Kansas City Chiefs	KC	DST	189	20
170	Harrison Butker	KC	K	175	5
171	Greg Zuerlein	DAL	K	191	20
172	Wil Lutz	NO	K	181	9
173	Los Angeles Chargers	LAC	DST	210	37
174	Denver Broncos	DEN	DST	206	32
175	Jake Elliott	PHI	K	219	44
176	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	TB	DST	237	61
177	Hunter Renfrow	LV	WR	172	-5
178	Dawson Knox	BUF	TE	228	50
179	Curtis Samuel	CAR	WR	151	-28
180	Chicago Bears	CHI	DST	180	0
181	Robby Anderson	CAR	WR	148	-33
182	New Orleans Saints	NO	DST	178	-4
183	Russell Gage	ATL	WR	224	41
184	Matt Gay	FA	K	266	82
185	Ka'imi Fairbairn	HOU	K	225	40
186	Tennessee Titans	TEN	DST	216	30
187	John Ross	CIN	WR	214	27
188	Younghoe Koo	ATL	K	243	55
189	Cole Beasley	BUF	WR	193	4
190	Corey Davis	TEN	WR	186	-4
191	Mason Crosby	GB	K	240	49
192	Green Bay Packers	GB	DST	231	39
193	Larry Fitzgerald	ARI	WR	169	-24
194	Robbie Gould	SF	K	205	11
195	Alshon Jeffery	PHI	WR	187	-8
196	Philadelphia Eagles	PHI	DST	207	11
197	Kendrick Bourne	SF	WR	263	66
198	Eric Ebron	PIT	TE	156	-42
199	Chase McLaughlin	MIN	K	327	128
200	Indianapolis Colts	IND	DST	223	23
201	Gerald Everett	LAR	TE	226	25
202	Stephen Gostkowski	TEN	K	304	102
203	James Washington	PIT	WR	183	-20
204	Kenny Stills	HOU	WR	220	16
205	John Hightower	PHI	WR	411	206
206	O.J. Howard	TB	TE	204	-2
207	Dallas Cowboys	DAL	DST	239	32
208	Michael Badgley	LAC	K	238	30
209	Washington Football Team	WAS	DST	284	75
210	Brett Maher	FA	K	329	119
211	Matt Prater	DET	K	209	-2
212	Jason Myers	SEA	K	251	39
213	Dan Arnold	ARI	TE	331	118
214	Logan Thomas	WAS	TE	342	128
215	David Njoku	CLE	TE	271	56
216	Auden Tate	CIN	WR	269	53
217	Josh Gordon	SEA	WR	356	139
218	Josh Reynolds	LAR	WR	248	30
219	Tee Higgins	CIN	WR	221	2
220	Cleveland Browns	CLE	DST	247	27
221	C.J. Uzomah	CIN	TE	310	89
222	Kaden Smith	NYG	TE	403	181
223	Chris Boswell	PIT	K	255	32
224	Atlanta Falcons	ATL	DST	296	72
225	Seattle Seahawks	SEA	DST	229	4
226	Dan Bailey	MIN	K	241	15
227	Vance McDonald	PIT	TE	289	62
228	Aldrick Rosas	FA	K	338	110
229	Brandon McManus	DEN	K	253	24
230	Tyler Eifert	JAC	TE	249	19
231	Josh Lambo	JAC	K	283	52
232	Nick Boyle	BAL	TE	346	114
233	Will Dissly	SEA	TE	245	12
234	Daniel Carlson	LV	K	297	63
235	Austin Seibert	CLE	K	278	43
236	New York Jets	NYJ	DST	254	18
237	Devin Asiasi	NE	TE	336	99
238	Houston Texans	HOU	DST	273	35
239	Dustin Hopkins	WAS	K	308	69
240	Zane Gonzalez	ARI	K	217	-23
241	Miami Dolphins	MIA	DST	351	110
242	Jacksonville Jaguars	JAC	DST	292	50
243	Dalton Keene	NE	TE	406	163
244	Detroit Lions	DET	DST	301	57
245	Joey Slye	CAR	K	265	20
246	Darren Fells	HOU	TE	311	65
247	Tyler Bass	BUF	K	362	115
248	Arizona Cardinals	ARI	DST	320	72
249	Stephen Hauschka	FA	K	313	64
250	Jeremy Sprinkle	WAS	TE	383	133
251	Cameron Brate	TB	TE	306	55
252	Trey Burton	IND	TE	324	72
253	Carolina Panthers	CAR	DST	305	52
254	New York Giants	NYG	DST	370	116
255	Las Vegas Raiders	LV	DST	333	78

 

Florio vs the World

My advice with rankings (especially while drafting) is to always to dissect your team as you go and find any weaknesses you may have. If you look at your team and feel you built a safe base but are lacking some upside, taking the highest-ranked player could hurt. Let’s say you are targeting a WR and look at the rankings you are using and realize the highest-ranked player is Julian Edelman, but right near him is Will Fuller. If you go by the rankings you will draft Edelman, but in a scenario like that knowing that your team lacks upside the play I would recommend is Fuller.

It’s why I am a big fan of tiered rankings. Because that way you can see the grouping of players that I think belong together. This gives you a general sense of the players in that range you should be targeting. But, inside that tier, you should be looking for the player that best fits your need. If you have a lot of safe players, go for upside. If you have a lot of players with upside but come with question marks, it may be best to a more proven player in the tier. Rankings are important in fantasy football but using them properly is just as important as having a good list on names!

Below are players that I am higher or lower on than consensus. For consensus, I will be using FantasyPros, which utilizes rankings from some of the top fantasy analysts and give an average rank. I then use that average rank and determine the players I have higher and lower than the field. I will explain why I feel the way I do with each player.

 

Running Backs

JaMycal Hasty is the player I disagree with the most with the consensus. If you listen to RotoBaller Radio on SiriusXM (moving 6am to 8am Saturday and Sunday) you have heard me mention Hasty before. Look, he is an undrafted free agent, so he doesn’t come with really any hype at all. But there is a reason I have him 60 spots higher than the average ranker. The thing is, it doesn’t have a whole lot to do with Hasty himself.

Any back that I can get a last-round flier on in Kyle Shanahan’s offense? Yes please! He is going to start getting more and more popular now that Raheem Mostert has requested a trade. I was off of Mostert well before any trade rumors too. You can read about that (as well as other backs I am low on here)!

Joshua Kelley is someone I am higher on by over 20 spots in the rankings according to FantasyPros. That may seem contradictory since I am driving the Austin Ekeler hype train, but I do think Kelley has a role on this team. I continue to say I expect this backfield to operate much like the Saints. I expect Ekeler to dominate all passing duties, while also sharing carries out of the backfield with Kelley. Kelley has the chance to also become the goal line back. His upside is capped given Ekeler’s involvement, but Kelley is so cheap in drafts that he becomes a worthwhile gamble in rounds 12 or 13, sometimes even later.

I am a big believer that the rookie running backs possess a ton of upside in fantasy this season. In many of these instances, there is a rookie back coming in to compete with an incumbent back. In many of these cases, the downside for the rookie is they will have to share touches. But the upside is they can run away with this backfield and dominate opportunities. I do not feel this way about the incumbent backs, because they were on the roster and the team still went out and drafted a back early.

I am higher on Ke’Shawn Vaughn (+8), Cam Akers (+6), Clyde Edwards-Helaire (+6), Jonathan Taylor (+4) and Zack Moss (+2). Oddly enough the rookie I am lowest on is J.K. Dobbins (-6) but I am considering changing that. The reason I am scared though is because I value Mark Ingram higher than the other incumbent backs, plus there is also Gus Edwards there who could steal some touches. I like Dobbins, especially long-term, I just worry that this year the backfield may just be a little too crowded to live up to expectations. But if Ingram gets hurt, watch out!

The backs I am lowest on are the ones that I view as having little to no upside. If you haven’t read my 2020 fantasy football strategy article, it is all about trying to capitalize on as many upside shots as possible in the middle to safer rounds. The argument against safe floor players with little upside is that you hold onto them all year, likely only start them during bye weeks or if someone gets injured, and when you have to use them, your starting lineup is already worse by switching from a starter to a bench option.

Meanwhile, if you keep taking upside shots and some hit, you are going to be a powerhouse. To me, I would rather miss the playoffs trying to build a championship-caliber team than make the playoffs as the fifth seed and get bounced in round one. There are many safe backs that fit that category that I am lower on than consensus. I have James White 12 spots lower than his average rank. Is he going to finish higher than I have him ranked? Probably. But there are RBs that have higher ceilings that go around where he goes that I would simply rather take a shot on. Having White the last couple of seasons, I can tell you he may help you win a week when you’re in a pinch, but he will not win you a title, especially with Cam Newton and not Tom Brady. Others than fall into this group are Sony Michel (-5), Tarik Cohen (-6), Kerryon Johnson (-6), Patrick Laird (-8) and most of all Jamaal Williams (-16) and Adrian Peterson (-16).

 

Wide Receivers

Adam Thielen is a WR1 for me. In fact, in PPR he is my WR6, six spots ahead of his average ranking. Too many people are forgetting that Thielen was the WR7 in 2018 and was averaging 16.45 fantasy PPG in Weeks 1-6 last season, before injuring his hamstring. That injury really just ruined Thielen’s season as we saw him try to return and injure it. That injury is now behind him and Stefon Diggs is now in Buffalo. Meaning that there is plenty of work up for grabs in Minnesota. The Vikings may be a run-first team, but when they decide to throw you can expect them to go Thielen’s way constantly. The best part is you get him at a discount due to last year’s injury!

Marquise Brown is someone I have written and spoke about a bunch this offseason, so it is no surprise I have him seven spots higher than consensus. Brown was not healthy at any point last season. He had a screw put into his foot that forced him to miss the combine and much of the summer. Brown himself said he did not have his normal burst or top speed and by the end of the season his foot was mangled. Now he is healthy, more comfortable in the NFL and on a prolific offense where teams will not really be able to double team him. Good luck guarding this guy one-on-one.

I am way higher on Marquise's cousin Antonio Brown than the consensus. How much higher? Apparently 53 spots higher, which to me is shocking since I still have him ranked as a WR5. Look, we all know the hurdles AB still has to jump: a team needs to sign him and he needs to serve a possible suspension. But he goes so cheap and we all know the upside he possesses. You can nab someone who has WR1 upside when on the field in the reserve rounds? Yes, please! He has been getting more hype lately though as rumors about him fly.

Other Wide Receivers I am higher on than consensus: Breshad Perriman (+20), John Ross (+16), Steven Sims (+14), Tyler Lockett (+8), CeeDee Lamb (+7), Anthony Miller (+6), Preston Williams (+6), Jalen Reagor (+6), N’Keal Harry (+6), Diontae Johnson (+5), Darius Slayton (+5) and DK Metcalf (+4).

Mike Evans (-7) is a player I am lower on and have been vocal about it this offseason. He now has a QB that doesn’t air the ball out or throw out wide as much as his former QB. I expect the Bucs to pass less in general as I think they will be trailing less.

Keenan Allen (-8) has been my guy for years. Ever since he got labeled as injury-prone for tearing his ACL and having his spleen rupture, he was a value. But that changes for me this season with the move at QB from Philip Rivers to Tyrod Taylor. In Taylor’s three seasons with the Bills, the only receiver he had top 120 fantasy points was Sammy Watkins in 2015. The only other receiver to top 100 fantasy points was Robert Woods. Allen could prove me wrong, but even if he does, he provides more of a safe floor rather than a high ceiling. And there are so many receivers in his range with higher upside.

Amari Cooper (-5) finished as the WR10 last season and yet you have to pay an even higher price to get him (WR9) in FFPC drafts. With CeeDee Lamb now on board, still with Michael Gallup and Blake Jarwin set to take over the Jason Witten role, there are a lot of mouths in this offense. Paying that price for Cooper, who does have a knack of being inconsistent week to week, just feels like paying for the ceiling. I will let others take him and target his teammates later in the draft.

 

Tight Ends

Jack Doyle (+7) is a tight end I am definitely higher on than others. I believe Doyle could see the volume to finish as a low-end TE1. Rivers has always featured a tight end in his offense. First it was Antonio Gates and then Hunter Henry. Now Doyle won’t be those guys, but he is very much so in the mix for targets behind T.Y. Hilton. There is also no more Eric Ebron for him to have to split reps with. You can get Doyle as a TE2, but there’s upside to outlive that purely on volume alone.

Other tight ends I am higher on than consensus: Jace Sternberger (+8), Hayden Hurst (+3), Rob Gronkowski (+3), Chris Herndon (+3).

Other tight ends I am lower on than consensus: Blake Jarwin (-8), Austin Hooper (-6), Eric Ebron (-6), Jared Cook (-4).

If you have any rankings questions, hit me up on Twitter @MichaelFFlorio

 

Florio's Full Fantasy Football Draft Rankings

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