X
Lost password?

Don't have an account?
Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community!

X

Receive free daily analysis

NFL
NBA
NHL
NASCAR
CFB
MLB
MMA
PGA
ESPORTS
BETTING

Already have an account? Log In

X

Forgot Password


LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

Mike Moustakas to the Brewers - Fantasy Impact

The rumor mill has been suggesting it for a while but on Sunday it became official that Mike Moustakas is back in Milwaukee. Moustakas returns to the Brew Crew on the back of a 54-game audition at the end of last season. While the numbers in that span looked somewhat disappointing compared to his 2017 numbers, they were clearly good enough for Milwaukee to bring him back in.

So what will we see from Moustakas this season? Will it be a repeat of 2018 or a return to the breakout of 2017? In addition, what does this signing mean for the other parts of the Brewers lineup? Which of Travis Shaw, Hernan Perez, and Cory Spangenberg are the big losers?

This signing clearly raises a lot of questions from a fantasy perspective, not just for Moustakas but for a lot of the Brewers roster. Let's take a look at what we might expect from everyone affected in 2019.

Featured Promo: For this week only, take 50% off any full-season or yearly Premium Pass on the site! Just enter discount code THANKS when checking out. Thanks for being a reader, and Happy Holidays! Sign Up Now!

 

The Moose in Milwaukee

Moustakas' time in Milwaukee made for a relatively short sample size but there are definitely some interesting details to take away from both his time there and his 2018 season as a whole. Moustakas played 54 games and logged 218 plate appearances as a Brewer. During that time he hit just eight home runs, giving him his lowest HR/PA rate since 2015 (.037). However, in 98 plate appearances in Miller Park in 2018, Moustakas hit six home runs, a HR/PA rate of 0.061. A similar performance over 300 plate appearances at Miller Park next season would see him hit somewhere in the region of 18-20 home runs. That is a great grounding for him to threaten a total of 35 home runs, and potentially even get close matching the 38 from 2017 next season. Those power predictions are further reinforced by the fact that his batted ball profile was similar in 2017 and 2018. In fact, his hard hit percentage, exit velocity and launch angle were all slightly higher in 2018 than in 2017.

His batting average is a little harder to put a finger on this season. His BABIP was similar (.259 compared to .263), his K% was only slightly higher (16.2% compared to 15.7%) and his GB/FB rate was almost identical (0.74 compared to 0.76). The only real stand out indicator is that his infield fly ball rate jumped from 16% in 2017 to 19.2% in 2018. All of those numbers suggest to me that his batting average is going to be somewhere between the 2017 and 2018 numbers. If he keeps a similar batted-ball profile again in 2019, it may not get back to the height of .272 but it should be unlikely to sink below the .252 of last season.

In terms of runs and RBI, the combined numbers have every chance to be similar to what we have seen previously in his career, somewhere in the 160 region. Right now, Moustakas is predicted to hit sixth in the lineup so the lean should be towards him having about 90 RBI compared to 60ish runs. However, with Yasmani Grandal and Orlando Arcia behind him, there is the potential his runs could creep closer to 80. Of course, during the season there is always the chance of lineup flexibility, but the knowledge he will be in the 160 combined runs and RBI region is a good starting point.

 

Sacrificing Shaw

The one thing this signing does is that it forces Travis Shaw to play second base again. Or does it? According to recent reports, the Brewers may intend to have Moustakas try his hand at second base and keep Shaw at third, even though Moose has never played 2B in the majors. Shaw played 37 games last season at second base, most of which came after the acquisition of Moustakas, but apparently, they weren't thrilled with the results. Shaw's numbers while playing second base were interesting. While playing second base Shaw hit 10 home runs, an average of 0.072 HR/PA. In contrast, he hit 20 home runs in 419 PA (.048) while playing third base. So the power was better at second base, but his average was nearly .030 lower when playing that position than when playing at third base.

On one hand, that is great news as it means that Shaw and Moustakas will both have second base eligibility this season. Second base is an extremely shallow position, and Moustakas gains a huge amount of fantasy value just simply by being eligible there. On the other hand, as we saw with Shaw, it could lead to some early adjustments for Moustakas that could trickle down to the batter's box.

The bigger issue is that right now Moustakas is the most obvious platoon partner for Hernan Perez, which is what Roster Resource are currently predicting. Shaw should see the majority of AB at the third base position, but his value is hurt by the fact we could be looking at something closer to 450 PA than the 600 we have seen the last two years if Moustakas splits time with him at the hot corner instead. The question marks around playing time for both players mean they should drop a fair bit in ADP over the coming weeks, and perhaps even to the point of not being drafted in 10 or 12-team mixed leagues.

 

Advertising

Effect on the other Brewers

We have already discussed the domino effect of this on Shaw. However, there have also been other Brewers affected. Cory Spangenberg now appears to have lost his place on the 25-man roster, and could easily end up on another team by the time the season opens. He did not have much fantasy value before this signing, and his loss of playing time will not concern too many fantasy players this season. As for Hernan Perez, his value actually changes very little initially. However, it does drastically decrease his chances of becoming an everyday player. Overcoming Spangenberg for the job would have been significantly easier than getting past Moustakas will be.

Moustakas looks likely to slot into the six slot in the lineup, pushing Grandal and Arcia down. Both of those will lose a little off their runs and RBI totals, based on the decrease in PA. However, the change should not be major. The same goes for the hitters just above Moustakas in the lineup, Aguilar and Braun. Moustakas might give them a little boost in runs scored, but he is not so much of a significant improvement over Grandal at the six spot that they see a real increase in value of any sorts.

 

Conclusion

As always with these signings, there are positives and negatives for fantasy. The main positives are that Moustakas had good power numbers in Miller Park last season, and he remains part of a very good lineup. The major negative appears to be the effect on Shaw if Moose doesn't take to second base, or if that plan falls apart. Not only does Moustakas have to change position defensively, but he is also now potentially in a platoon for second base. So while Moustakas has hypothetically gained fantasy value by staying in a potent lineup and hitter-friendly park, the loss of playing time may be even greater. If he is eligible at second base this season, possibly the weakest position in 2019, for that reason this signing is more than likely a lost opportunity for fantasy purposes.

More 2019 Fantasy Baseball Advice




LINEUP RESOURCES

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

WIN MORE IN 2024

Articles & Tools
Import Your Leagues
Daily Stats & Leaders
All Pitcher Matchups
Compare Any Players
Pickups & Streamers
Rookies & Call-Ups
24x7 News and Alerts

ROTOBALLER PLAYER NEWS

RANKINGS
C
1B
2B
3B
SS
OF
SP
RP

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
Alexis Diaz fantasy baseball closers rankings draft sleepers waiver wire pickups

MLB Closers and Saves: Fantasy Baseball Depth Charts

Saves are an important component for many fantasy baseball leagues. Closers are one of the most volatile positions in fantasy baseball, and one of the highest turnover positions in MLB. Each year, closers drop like flies and many MLB teams make in-season changes due to injuries or poor performance. In addition to closers and saves, relief... Read More


Do These Prospects Matter for Fantasy Baseball?

The 2023 fantasy baseball season has been highlighted by the promotion of nearly two-dozen top prospects to the major leagues to impact fantasy rosters. This week's edition features one player who was called up as the piece was being written. Will these strong performers join the ranks of those who have moved to the majors... Read More


clayton kershaw fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

articles report test

this is a test


Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome back! It's Week 24 of our fantasy baseball Starting Pitcher Waiver Wire Pickups series! There are just two precious weeks left, and every start is becoming more and more important as most of the fantasy baseball world is in playoff matchups. If you've made it this far, there's a good chance you don't really... Read More


Aaron Nola - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, DFS Lineup Picks

Starts & Sits for MLB Week 23 - All Starting Pitcher Matchups for Fantasy Baseball

Welcome back RotoBallers! Big week in fantasy leagues as we approach the end of the season and playoffs! As always, we are here with our starting pitcher starts and sits series to help you set those winning lineups for the week ahead! For those who are not familiar, RotoBaller puts out a weekly grid of... Read More


Gunnar Henderson - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Prospects, Draft Sleepers

Points League Hitters: Waiver Wire Pickups for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Welcome to Week 24 and our fantasy baseball waiver wire hitters. We'll be doing this roundup of points leagues every week here at RotoBaller, with waiver wire targets and streaming pitchers being evaluated in terms of the different scoring systems of ESPN, Yahoo!, CBS, and Fantrax. Player values can vary wildly from platform to platform,... Read More


Brayan Bello - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, Waiver Wire Pickups

Two-Start Pitcher Streamers for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

Yo, it's Jon Anderson, continuing to run the show here in terms of late-summer fantasy baseball writing. There are just two weeks left of streaming pitchers, so let's make it count! This weekly fantasy baseball waiver wire pickups column aims to identify starting pitchers expected to make two starts in the upcoming fantasy baseball week,... Read More


Fantasy Baseball Week 24 Injury News and Updates: Tyler Glasnow, Ozzie Albies, Starling Marte, Anthony Rizzo, Zack Wheeler

September is now more than half over. The baseball season is slowly coming to a close. At this point, fantasy players are pushing for their league titles or just playing for pride. Major League Baseball teams continue to do the same and injuries continue to happen, now with the dreaded term "done for the season"... Read More


Joe Musgrove - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/17/22)

Happy Saturday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/17/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Today's MLB slates are split up as is the norm for September baseball. Half the guys I think will play will not, so you have to be as flexible as Gumby to play MLB DFS in September, but that also means that there is a lot of money out there should you dare to dive... Read More


Max Fried - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, Draft Sleepers, MLB Injury News

Free MLB Betting Picks - Today's Best Bets, Expert Predictions, Odds (9/15/22)

Happy Friday, RotoBallers, we're back for another weekend of MLB betting picks! Make sure you're following my Twitter, as I can't guarantee that I'll always be able to get the added plays written here in the article, but I will typically add whatever else I'm playing throughout the day. The entire RotoBaller team has been... Read More


Robbie Ray - Fantasy Baseball Rankings, MLB Injury News, Draft Sleepers

DraftKings, FanDuel Daily Fantasy Baseball Picks (9/16/22): Today's Top MLB DFS Lineups

Fridays are big MLB DFS days and offer a nice respite from the NFL, who command our attention on Thursdays, Sundays, and Mondays. This slate, like most Friday slates, is a big one as all MLB teams are in action today and 28 of those teams are on tonight's 14-game DFS slate. This was a... Read More


kyle farmer fantasy baseball rankings draft sleepers MLB injury news

Top Hitter Streamers and Starts for Fantasy Baseball - Week 24

There are only two weeks left of fantasy baseball! It's going to be very sad when the season comes to an end, but the impending end of the season means that these are the most important, and therefore most fun weeks of the year – for those of you still competing, at least. I have... Read More


TODAY’S MOST VIEWED PLAYERS

rotating JS ad test

RANKINGS

QB
RB
WR
TE
K
DEF

MORE RECENT ARTICLES

 
derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

test publish 5 mins in future

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Updates for Aaron Rodgers

Warning: Undefined array key "amp_post_template_footer" in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Warning: foreach() argument must be of type array|object, null given in /var/www/rotoballer.com/wp-content/plugins/php-code-for-posts/Classes/Shortcode.php(91) : eval()'d code on line 6 Featured Promo: Get any full-season NFL Premium Pass for 50% off and win big in 2022. Exclusive access to our Premium articles, 15 lineup... Read More


derrick henry fantasy football rankings news NFL DFS lineup picks

PrizePicks NFL DFS Picks - Monday Night Football

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is finally underway and that means our friends over at PrizePicks have a TON of great props we can look to take advantage of. PrizePicks is a great DFS picks site where you can choose to select plays in terms of fantasy points or single stats. The... Read More


Justin Jefferson - Fantasy Football Rankings, DFS Lineup Picks, NFL Injury News

NFL DFS Prop Picks for Monkey Knife Fight - Monday Night Football

Welcome to NFL Monday Night Football, where we have two games scheduled between the Minnesota Vikings vs. Philadelphia Eagles and the Tennessee Titans vs. Buffalo Bills.  Monday's games mean our friends at Monkey Knife Fight are offering some fantastic props for us to play once again! The good people at Monkey Knife Fight offer some... Read More


D'Andre Swift - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL DFS Lineup Picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL RBs: Week 2 Updates for Najee Harris, J.K. Dobbins, D'Andre Swift, Alvin Kamara, Mark Ingram

Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for running backs in Week 2, as of September 17. The injury statuses for various NFL running backs are up in the air for Week 2 including D'Andre Swift, Najee Harris, Alvin Kamara, J.K. Dobbins, and more. The fantasy football season may be just getting underway,... Read More


michael pittman jr. fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports For NFL WRs: Week 2 Updates for Michael Pittman Jr., Mike Evans, Tee Higgins, Allen Lazard, Julio Jones

Welcome to Week 2 of the fantasy football season and the Saturday edition of our WR injury reports! Below you will find our fantasy football injuries report for wide receivers in Week 2 as of September 16th. The injury statuses for various NFL wide receivers are up in the air for Week 2, including Michael... Read More


justin herbert fantasy football rankings NFL DFS lineup picks

Fantasy Football Injury Reports for QBs: Week 2 Updates for Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, Mac Jones

Below you will find our updated fantasy football injuries report for quarterbacks in the days before Week 2 of the 2022 NFL season as of Friday, September 16. There are a few NFL QBs dealing with injuries, including Dak Prescott, Justin Herbert, Jameis Winston, and Mac Jones. Being up-to-date on NFL injury news can give... Read More


Trey Lance - Fantasy Football Rankings, Draft Sleepers, NFL Injury News

Key Starters and Tough Calls - Lineup Spotlights for Fantasy Football Week 2

Every week, I share some of my favored choices and players to go with when dealing with challenging lineup decisions. These selections are based on my Premium Weekly Lineup Rankings, available as part of the RotoBaller NFL Premium Pass. Enter promo code KING at checkout for a discount and get access to my ranks in all formats, plus... Read More


Saquon Barkley - Fantasy Football Rankings, NFL Injury News, Draft Sleepers

Week 2 NFL Pick Em Selections for No House Advantage

Hello everybody and welcome! The 2022 NFL season is underway and that means our friends over at No House Advantage have a TON of great DFS plays we can look to take advantage of. No House Advantage is a unique DFS prop picks site where you do not have to play against the house to... Read More


Wide Receiver Matchups to Target in Week 2: Greg Dortch, Terry McLaurin, Christian Kirk

Week 1 made some things come to light as we got some clarity on some murky situations. Unfortunately, many of our WR targets for DFS last week were victims of this. Robert Woods finished the game with one reception for 13 yards, as the Titans used the rookie receivers much more than him. Brandon Aiyuk... Read More


Carson Wentz - Fantasy Football Rankings, Waiver Wire Pickups, Draft Sleepers

Thunder Dan's NFL Betting Picks for Week 2: Top NFL Player Props Bets

Football season is back! Whether you like to bet game totals, sides, or player props, I have something in here for you, and try to cover a little bit of everything! This year, I started my own free sports betting newsletter, and the good people here at RotoBaller are allowing me to share my picks... Read More


Fantasy Football IDP Injury Reports For NFL Defensive Players: Week 2 Updates for T.J. Watt, Jamal Adams, Jalen Thompson, Ed Oliver

T.J. Watt owners, you know the feeling... I had T.J. Watt in my home league last season. He was constantly checking out of games early with nagging minor injuries, but he must have led every IDP manager who started him to the playoffs. I went back to the well and drafted him early this year.... Read More