RADIO
We have a slight change in our lineup as I'll now be taking on the Friday picks along with my usual Saturday slot. Hopefully going back-to-back days will give me a bit more consistency, especially now I don't need to split focus on the EPL. Last Saturday saw the Padres cover the spread for a nice gain. Unfortunately, the Orioles let us down for a big day. We took them to lead after five innings and despite taking a 5-0 lead in the first and a 6-1 lead into the bottom of the third, they trailed 9-7 after five innings. They even had the tying run on second base in the fifth inning but couldn't get it done.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
- O/U Record: 1-5 (-4.13 U)
- Runline Record: 1-3 (-0.92 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 1-4 (-2.13 U)
- Prop Record: 9-4 (+5.01 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 11-15 (-2.67 U)
The early weather forecasts for Friday do not paint a pretty picture. Of the 11 games scheduled to be outdoors, seven look like they'll get some rain with four already looking like potential postponements.
Baltimore Orioles at Chicago White Sox
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BAL +195, CWS -215
BAL: Matt Harvey | CWS: Dallas Keuchel
The reason we backed the Orioles to tag Jon Lester for a few runs last weekend was due to their proficiency against left-handed pitching (LHP). That remains true here. They rank eighth against LHP in SLG (.437), eighth in wOBA (.330) and sixth in wRC+ (112). The Orioles are on a miserable run in May with Thursday's loss to the White Sox being their tenth straight defeat. Since taking the series against the Mariners 2-1 in early May, they've played six series and have gone 0-6 in them. They won just two of those 18 games and already trail this series 1-0 following Thursday's 5-1 loss.
In May, the Orioles have scored 100 runs in 24 games (4.17 runs per game). That ranks as 20th in MLB but it's their pitching that has let them down with a league-high 6.09 ERA this month. Harvey has been a contributing factor in that with an 8.85 ERA in May (five starts) and he's allowed 18 earned runs in his last three starts (10.2 IP).
The White Sox are sending veteran Keuchel to the mound and he sports a 4.28 ERA on the year. His expected ERA (xERA) is 5.84 and his strikeout rate (K%) of 12.3% is low even for him (career 18.7% K%). Keuchel has allowed three or more runs in six of his ten starts. Their offense has struggled a bit of late with just 23 runs scored in their last seven games which includes two shutouts. They do still rank fifth overall in runs scored (245) and against RHP, they rank 10th in OPS (.723), eighth in wOBA (.321) and sixth in wRC+ (108).
There looks like some rain around in this game but it should ease by first pitch and the winds are blowing out to right field at around 19MPH.
Pick: 1st 5 innings - over 4.5 runs (-117) 1 Unit
Colorado Rockies at Pittsburgh Pirates
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: COL -110, PIT +100
COL: Jon Gray | PIT: Mitch Keller
While the Rockies have been bad this year and come into this series with a 19-32 record, they've had a tough schedule. Against teams with a .500 record or better, they're 9-25 and against teams with a losing record, they actually have a winning record of 10-7. The issue for them has been road games as they have a 3-20 record away from Coors Field. Their road games have predominantly been against the better teams in the NL though. A total of 15 of the 23 games have been at the Giants, Dodgers, Cardinals and Padres who have a combined 121-80 record.
Jon Gray will take the mound for the Rockies and he's been one of their few bright spots this year with a 3.43 ERA through 10 starts. He's allowed just a .212 batting average against him and he's pitched into the sixth inning in each of his last seven starts. That will hopefully protect the bullpen which has the second-worst ERA (5.50) in MLB this year. On the road, the bullpen ERA is 4.57 so they benefit significantly when pitching away out of Colorado.
The Pirates enter this game on the six-game losing streak and have a similarly poor record (18-31) to the Rockies. The difference is they have an 11-20 record against .500 or better teams and are 7-11 against teams with a losing record. If you haven't seen it yet, the Javier Baez play from yesterday perfectly encapsulates how their season is going and their 161 runs scored this year is the fewest in MLB.
Mitch Keller hasn't fulfilled his promise this year and enters this game with a 7.41 ERA from nine starts. He hasn't gone deeper than 5.2 IP, and that came against the Padres at the start of May where he didn't give up a run. In his three starts since then, Keller has allowed 14 earned runs in 13.1 IP. The Pirates will likely need to lean on a bullpen that has a collective 3.94 ERA (15th best) this year.
The offensive numbers stack up much more favorably for the Rockies too. They're 18th in ISO (.151), 20th in wOBA (.301) and 16th in SLG (.389). The Pirates are 30th in ISO (.117), 29th in wOBA (.286) and 29th in SLG (.344).
The early day forecast shows the rain should clear by first pitch and the storms around the area should miss this game.
Pick: Moneyline - Colorado Rockies (-110) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
New York Yankees @ Detroit Tigers
The Yankees offense is stuttering and has just lost Luke Voit to the IL. In game one of yesterday's double-header against the Blue Jays, rookie Alek Manoah mowed through their lineup, striking out seven Yankees in six shutout innings. Against RHP, the Yankees have the ninth-highest K% on the season (25.2%) and in May, they have the fourth-highest K% against RHP (26.5%). Giancarlo Stanton is expected to be activated off the IL for today's game and although he's second on the active roster in SLG (.534), he's also second in K% (27.8%). The Yankees lineup projects to have six players with a K% greater than 25.0% for this game.
Casey Mize has begun to show signs of his prospect promise and now has a 3.42 ERA on the year (nine starts and 52.2 IP). He does have a lowly 18.7% K% but in his last two starts, he's struck out seven then six batters. In his last five starts, he's pitched at least 6.0 IP with six or more strikeouts in three of them. His 21.1% K% in those five games is much improved on his 15.4% K% from his first four starts.
This will be a cold game, but it should stay dry and winds of 19MPH blowing out to right field will help the batters, assuming they can actually make contact.
Pick: Mizer over 4.5 K (-110) 1 Unit
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