RADIO
After two profitable weekends and four straight days of hitting of winning picks, last Saturday saw us go 0-for-3. We came up one run short in the Twins versus Rangers game, Lance Lynn had his worst outing of the season and Alex Wood got knocked out of the game early so came up short in the strikeout prop. As always, we dust ourselves off and go again today.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 1-2 (-0.57 U)
- O/U Record: 4-6 (-2.49 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-1.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 4-8 (-2.26 U)
- Prop Record: 12-8 (+3.67 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 20-26 (-3.07 U)
Kansas City Royals at Texas Rangers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: KCR -110, TEX -110
KCR: Mike Minor | TEX: Dane Dunning
Both teams enter the weekend series on cold streaks with the Royals 3-7 in their last ten games and the Rangers 2-8. The Rangers currently sport the third-worst record in baseball (27-48) and with just five wins in June (20 games). The Royals have fared marginally better in June having won seven of their 21 games which included a run of 12 defeats in 13 games and being swept by the Tigers and Angels.
The Royals offense started June on fire with 30 runs scored in their first three games of the month. Since then, they've scored 60 runs in 18 games (3.33 per game) and failed to score more than three in 11 of them. The Rangers offense are the third-lowest scorers in the AL with 298 runs scored in 75 games (3.97 per game). In June, they've scored 71 runs (3.55 per game) and this will be their eighth straight home game after playing just seven games in 11 days.
On the mound, both teams will be relying on starters with an ERA north of four. Dunning has a 4.71 ERA this year after starting the season promisingly. His first three starts saw him give up just one earned run in 15.0 IP but his last five starts have combined for an ERA of 6.65. Dunning has been far better at home than away with a 7.45 road ERA and 2.50 ERA at home (both from seven starts).
Minor has similar splits but his road ERA is considerably better. At home, Minor has a 5.57 ERA (nine games) and a 2.73 ERA on the road (six games). Given that the Rangers ballpark has been pitcher-friendly since its construction and it's ranked eighth-worst for hitters this year according to ESPN (0.843 run factor), Minor should be able to continue his impressive road record of giving up two earned runs or less in five of his six starts.
The Royals bullpen ranks 22nd in ERA this month with a combined 4.86 while the Rangers are 29th with a 5.81 ERA so despite both offenses lacking much in the way of production, it's quite possible the game springs into life in the later innings and I have no confidence that either bullpen can go multiple innings without allowing runs.
Pick: 1st five innings over/under - under 4.5 (-120) 1 Unit
Pittsburgh Pirates at St.Louis Cardinals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: PIT +155, STL -170
PIT: Wil Crowe | STL: Kwang Hyun Kim
The Pirates took game one of the series to condemn the Cardinals to their 15th defeat in June (20 games). On June 01st, the Cardinals were 31-24 and just one game back from the Cubs in first place. Now, they're 36-39 and six games back, needing to turn things around to keep their playoff hopes alive.
A big reason is their offensive struggles recently. In June, the Cardinals have scored 60 runs (3.00 per game) and just 24 runs in their last 11 games (2.18 per game). In their last nine games, they've scored two runs or fewer in eight of them. They'll be relying on Kim to keep the Pirates off the board and hope they can string together a few runs of support.
Kim is having a solid season so far with a 3.60 ERA from his 11 starts. After giving up three runs in his first outing of the year, Kim has allowed just one run in seven of his other ten starts. He did have a rough spell of three starts to end May/begin June, allowing 10 earned runs in 13.2 IP but has allowed just two runs in his last two starts (10.0 IP).
The Pirates have been a blooper highlight reel for much of the season and following a 3-game win streak over the Marlins, they embarked on a 10-game losing streak. Their offense has been solid in June and hasn't been shut out, but have scored just 57 runs in their last 16 games (3.56 per game) since their losing streak began.
The season has been a struggle for Crowe too, with a 6.42 ERA from his 10 appearances (nine starts). After allowing eight runs in 4.0 IP against the Royals, Crowe has allowed just two earned runs in each of his last two starts (9.2 IP total) and he's got the backing of a "better-than-league-average" bullpen. They've combined for a 3.94 ERA which is 13th in MLB which is in stark contrast to Pirates starters who have a combined 5.31 ERA, third-worst in MLB.
The line is too generous for the Pirates given the Cardinals' struggles, but can you ever trust them? This has all the hallmarks of a close and low-scoring contest, which no doubt means the Cardinals win 11-10. But we'll play the sensible game.
Pick: Over/under - under 9 (-110) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks @ San Diego Padres
Arizona's struggles have been widely publicized in recent weeks and despite being 16th in MLB for runs scored this year (316), in June they rank tied-28th with just 77. June has also seen the Diamondbacks strikeout rate (K%) against right-handed pitching (RHP) rank fourth-highest at 27.5% as they've won just twice this month. Following the Padres first sweep of the Dodgers since 2013, it'd be typical of baseball for the Diamondbacks to go into San Diego and win the series.
Even if they manage that, I still back Paddack to have another good outing to keep his own recent run going. He's had a 3.71 ERA across his last three starts and has 20 strikeouts in the last two outings (11.0 IP). He's struck out at least six in each of his last four starts (32 K in 21.1 IP) and in five of his last six (40 K in 33.1 IP). Everything points towards him make it five straight starts with six or more strikeouts.
Pick: Chris Paddack over 5.5 Ks (-120) 1 Unit
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