RADIO
No sugar coating it. Last weekend was rough. After a 1-2 Friday, we went winless on Saturday. The prop parlay bet just missed out. The Braves outhit the Reds 8-6 but lost the game 4-1. And the Giants and Athletics missed out on the first five innings over by one run. Even tougher to take given they combined for eight runs between the sixth and tenth innings. It's a new month so a chance to turn things around.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 1-3 (-1.57 U)
- O/U Record: 4-6-1 (-2.49 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-1.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 4-10 (-4.26 U)
- Prop Record: 12-10 (+2.17 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 20-28-1 (-7.57 U)
Texas Rangers at Seattle Mariners
O/U: 7.5 | Moneyline: TEX -108, SEA +100
TEX: Kyle Gibson | SEA: Logan Gilbert
The Rangers travel to Seattle having won seven of their last ten games after clinching the series at Oakland on Thursday night, their second straight series win after sweeping the Royals last weekend. Their recent run is in no small part down to Joey Gallo who has homered in five straight games and has seven in that span.
The Mariners also come into this with a 7-3 record from their last ten games and find themselves six games back of first place in the AL West and in third place in the Wildcard race. They too come into this weekend having won their previous two series (both two games to one) against the White Sox and Blue Jays. While the Rangers only had a short trip from Oakland to Seattle for this one, the Mariners are traveling home across country from Buffalo which is never ideal to begin a series.
For the Rangers, Gibson heads to the mound and has been arguably the best starter in the American League so far this year. He's sporting a 2.00 ERA and after failing to get out of the first inning in his Opening Day start (allowing five earned runs in 0.2 IP), he's put up a 1.51 ERA since. Gibson has also had a tough schedule having faced the Astros three times and the Giants twice since May 01st, but still has a 1.91 ERA over the last two months. This will be his first time facing Seattle this year.
Gilbert has been better since a rough beginning to his MLB career. After allowing seven earned runs in 6.2 IP over his first two starts, he's got a 3.07 ERA since then (six starts). Until his last start was shortened to just 2.0 IP due to rain, he had complete five or more innings in four straight outings as he continues to stretch out his starts, aided by his recent successes.
Over the last two weeks, both teams' offenses have been better than average with the Rangers having a 106 wRC+ and the Mariners with a 107 wRC+. Over their last ten games, the Rangers wRC+ is 121 as they've come to life at the plate (led by Gallo's home run barrage) and have scored five or more runs in seven of their last ten games.
How deep the starters can go could be crucial as both bullpens have been bad since June 01st. The Rangers relievers have a 5.46 ERA in that time (third-worst in MLB) while the Mariners have a 5.33 ERA (fifth-worst). I jokingly mentioned on Twitter that Gibson is a front-runner for the AL Cy Young award this year and leads all AL pitchers in WAR (according to Baseball-Reference). While I don't foresee that lasting all year, I think he and Gallo could be the difference makers again today.
Pick: Moneyline - Texas Rangers (-108) 1 Unit
Pick: First 5 innings - Texas Rangers -0.5 (+128) 0.5 Units
Boston Red Sox at Oakland Athletics
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: BOS +105, OAK -113
BOS: Eduardo Rodriguez | OAK: Frankie Montas
The Red Sox enter this weekend series on the back of a 15-1 demolition of the Royals Thursday night to clinch a series sweep and make it a seven-game win streak coming into this one. The Athletics dropped the Thursday night game against the Rangers 8-3 and have now won just four of their last six contests.
Rodriguez has an unsightly 5.83 ERA on the year but his last two starts have both lasted 6 IP, totaling five earned runs (3.75 ERA) and he has a 3.37 xERA, 3.38 xFIP and 3.48 SIERA on the year. This will be the 17th start of the year for Montas and it's been a real mixed bag so far. His 4.72 ERA isn't ideal but he's had seven quality starts and three starts allowing six or more earned runs. That includes allowing eight earned runs over 5.2 IP against the Rangers on June 21st.
The Athletics have a 110 wRC+ since June 01st but a 92 wRC+ over the last two weeks. Boston's offense has gotten better in that time frame with a 104 wRC+ since June 01st but a 117 wRC+ over the last fortnight. The A's haven't fared too well against left-handed pitching with a 90 wRC+ versus LHP since June 01st and that drops to a 71 wRC+ against LHP over the last two weeks. Meanwhile, the Red Sox offense was been consistently good against RHP last month with a 111 wRC+ since June 01st and 109 wRC+ over the last fortnight against righties.
Despite the A's impressive 48-35 record, they're only 17-22 against teams who have a better than .500 record. The Red Sox are 24-17 against such teams. I normally don't like backing a team on the day they've had to travel across the country, but this line feels too generous and I expect Boston to move to odds on at some point.
Pick: Moneyline - Boston Red Sox (+105) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
Chicago White Sox @ Detroit Tigers
Casey Mize is having a very good rookie campaign and will be making his 16th start of 2021 tonight. Of his previous 15 starts, Mize only has six or more strikeouts in six games. Two of them came in his only starts against the White Sox. Despite allowing three earned runs in both of those starts, he also went 6 IP and 7 IP respectively and has completed five innings in all but two starts this year. The White Sox don't strike out much against RHP (21.3% K% since June 01st versus RHP) but Mize appears to have something over his division rivals
Pick: Mize over 4.5 Ks (-118) 1 Unit
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