RADIO
After a profitable Friday (despite the Tigers trying to screw us over with their Casey Mize), Saturday told a familiar tale of near misses. We took the Reds and over 4.5 runs for the first five innings and the game was tied 2-2 after five. We took over 5.5 runs in the first five innings of the Orioles v Angels game and it was 4-1 after five. One run away in both games from making it a huge day. Thankfully, we managed to bag the prop as Dallas Keuchel only struck out two Tigers hitters.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Brua Tagovailoaić (@LucidMediaDFS) will be giving out the free picks during the week throughout the season, with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 2-4 (-1.52 U)
- O/U Record: 4-7-1 (-2.49 U)
- Runline Record: 1-4 (-2.42 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-12 (-5.12 U)
- Prop Record: 13-11 (+2.37 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 25-38-1 (-9.18 U)
Oakland Athletics at Texas Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: OAK -130, TEX +120
OAK: Cole Irvin | TEX: Jordan Lyles
The A's snapped a three-game losing streak this week by beating the Astros 2-1 with both runs coming in the first inning and were led by Frankie Montas and the bullpen. Given they rank last in wRC+ (66) over the last two weeks, it shouldn't have come as a surprise that they need their pitching to secure a win.
The Rangers had an off day yesterday but come into this series following back-to-back series defeats (at the Mariners and home to the Tigers). Their offense is tied for the fourth-fewest runs scored in the American League this year but has been better in the last fortnight with a 112 wRC+ (eighth-best).
Having not played each other for the first two months of the season, this will be their third series in three weeks, with the Rangers leading the season head-to-head 4-3 so far this year. There have been 68 runs scored in their previous seven games (9.71 per game), but that's largely driven by thirty being scored in the opening two games. The last five games have seen an average of 7.6 runs scored with only one game seeing a total of ten or more runs scored.
Lyles has had an uninspiring year so far with a 4.98 ERA and 1.45 WHIP. He's got similar underlying numbers (5.02 xERA, 4.94 xFIP and 4.78 SIERA) so his elevated ERA is warranted. He has been better in recent times with a 3.67 ERA since June 01st. Three of his last four starts have been quality starts and in amongst this streak was his 6.0 IP relief outing against the A's in which he entered after two innings and only allowed two earned runs.
Irvin will be making his 18th start of the year and is having a solid first season in Oakland. He's got a 6-7 record with a 3.56 ERA (101.0 IP). After a rough ending to May, in which he gave up 13 earned runs in 15.2 IP over three starts, Irvin had a great June and that's rolled into July. In his six starts since June 01st, Irvin has a 2.63 ERA which includes starts in Coors Field, against the Red Sox and at the Giants.
Since June 01st, Oakland's bullpen has a 3.59 ERA which is sixth-best in the Majors, while Texas has a 4.57 bullpen ERA in that time (17th best). The A's offense has been poor recently and both teams' starters have been pitching well recently which makes me believe this should be a low-scoring affair and both teams' bullpens should be good enough to keep it that way.
Pick: Over/under - Under 9 total runs (-110) 1 Unit
Cincinnati Reds at Milwaukee Brewers
O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: CIN -105, MIL -105
CIN: Wade Miley | MIL: Eric Lauer
The Brewers come into this weekend divisional series with the fifth-best record in baseball (53-36) and seven games ahead of the Reds. After dropping the 3-game series with the Mets earlier this week, the Brew Crew took game one of this series 5-3 last night. It was a familiar tale for the Reds who gave up the winning runs in the eighth inning and their bullpen ERA of 5.22 is third-worst in MLB.
Despite being above .500 with a 45-42 record, the Reds are only 13-21 against teams better than .500. The Brewers are 14-10 against such teams and after last night is 27-18 at home. Last night's win saw the Brewers tie the season record with the Reds at 5-5.
Offensively, both teams have similar numbers since June 01st. The Brewers wRC+ of 107 is 11th best and the Reds wRC+ of 104 is 14th best. The Brewers' collective slash line in that time is .235/.335/.422 while the Reds' line is .235/.341/.410. The Brewers have outhomered the Reds 49 to 38 since June 01st too, only five teams have hit more than Milwaukee in that time.
Lauer has had a solid first half of 2021 with a 4.11 ERA from eight starts (11 total appearances). He's got a 4.25 xERA, 4.10 xFIP and 4.27 SIERA so his underlying numbers are a true reflection of his results so far. He's thrown back-to-back quality starts coming into this game, allowing just one earned run across 12.1 IP. He's faced the Reds twice with mixed results (one start and one relief appearance). Those two appearances totaled 9.0 IP and he allowed six earned runs.
Miley has been having a renaissance with a 3.06 ERA although his 3.59 xERA, 3.66 xFIP and 4.04 SIERA suggest there's a bit of regression to come. He's yet to face the Brewers yet this year and despite having a 3.21 ERA over his last five starts, his xFIP in that time is 4.15.
While the Reds do have All-Star outfielders Nick Castellanos and Jesse Winker headlining their lineup, Winker is hitting just .069 in July and has a .182/.292/.234 line against LHP this year. Castellanos is faring a bit better in July but is still only hitting .214/.290/.357 this month.
The Vegas oddsmakers obviously struggle to pick a winner in this one but I think collectively, the Brewers are the better team, have the better bullpen and collectively have more hitters performing well in recent weeks. As long as Lauer doesn't get lit up early, the Brewers should have enough to win again tonight.
Pick: Moneyline - Milwaukee Brewers to win (-105) 1 Unit
Prop Bet
Toronto Blue Jays @ Tampa Bay Rays
Many people will see the strikeout line for Alex Manoah and be all on the over 6.5 given how much the Rays strikeout out. However, we're going to be slightly contrarian and go with the under for Shane McClanahan. As much as the young leftie has impressed this year, he's struck out seven or more batters in just three times in his twelve starts. Two of those outings have come in the last three starts McClanahan has made, but one came against the Mariners who have the third-highest K% against LHP since June 01st.
In his last outing against the Blue Jays, he struck out five in 5.1 IP and earlier in the season, he tallied four strikeouts against Toronto in 5.0 IP. Against LHP, the Blue Jays have a 22.2% K% on the year which is the tenth lowest in MLB. After playing a double-header on Wednesday, yesterday's day off will have allowed the Rays to rest their bullpen who should all be fresh and available so McClanahan might have a shorter than normal leash if he runs into early trouble as we head into the All-Star break.
Pick: McClanahan under 6.5 Ks (-115) 1 Units
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