RADIO
July ended pretty much how the rest of the month went. The A's and Angels played out a one-run game to hit the under with ease. Then Joey Votto came within an inch of history and sweeping our picks for the Reds v Mets game, only for the Mets to tie it in the ninth and walk it off in the tenth. The over hit at least. Yu Darvish then gave up five earned runs in six innings, yet struck out five in his final two innings to hit the over by one and cost us again while Tristan McKenzie ran into trouble against the White Sox in the fourth inning and saw his day end early. Due to the way we structured the bets, we still came out with a profit at least.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Daily articles covering a range of picks are available and you can always hit up any of the team on Twitter (@BellRoto, @stevejanik6, @LucidMediaDFS, @kipppsta, @MarkStrausberg, @Mark_Kieffer, @ThunderDanDFS and yours truly @Baseball_Jimbo). Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 5-9 (-3.60 U)
- O/U Record: 9-13-1 (-3.55 U)
- Runline Record: 2-6 (-2.92 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 5-13 (-6.12 U)
- Prop Record: 17-16 (+1.73 U)
Texas Rangers at Oakland Athletics
O/U: 8 | Moneyline: TEX +230, OAK -290
TEX: Mike Foltynewicz | OAK: Chris Bassitt
Rangers fans have had very little to get excited about for a while. This year has been no exception and prior to the trade deadline, they lost their best hitter, best starting pitcher and best reliever. Jonah Heim did hit a walk-off homer in back-to-back days last weekend, but they come into this on a three-game losing streak after a 3-1 series defeat against the Angels.
Their offense has been dreadful since the All-Star Break with a 49 wRC+ being comfortably the worst in MLB (Cleveland are next with an 84 wRC+). In that span, they've scored 44 runs in 19 games (2.31 per game) and haven't scored more than five runs in a game since June 06th. They've also been shut out four times since then.
Foltynewicz hasn't been able to get back to his best and comes into this with a 6.00 ERA from his 21 starts (111.0 IP). His 5.53 xERA and 5.22 xFIP don't paint a very pretty picture either. His season has been getting worse too after posting a 7.40 ERA in June, his July ERA was 10.42.
He has faced the A's three times this year (all since June 23rd) and has a 3.26 ERA in those starts so has had success against today's opponent. Although Oakland will be more familiar with him by now and should be able to put up some runs against him.
The Athletics haven't been great offensively since the All-Star Break with a 98 wRC+ since then (18th) but the additions of Starling Marte, Josh Harrison and Yan Gomes has seen them go 5-3 against the Angels and Padres. They've also had a day off on Monday and Thursday so should be rested coming into this series.
All-Star Bassitt will look to continue his stellar season, coming into this game with a 3.28 ERA from 22 starts (137.0 IP). He started July giving up six earned runs in 4.1 IP against the Astros but still had a 4.15 ERA for the month. He's also faced today's opposition three times already this year and allowed just two earned runs in 21.0 IP having completed seven innings in each outing and not allowing more than one run in any of them.
The Rangers -125 run differential is the fourth-worst in MLB and their 13-40 road record is the worst in the American League. I expect a low-scoring game but the lines aren't particularly appealing so we'll stick with the A's winning this one comfortably.
Pick: Runline - Oakland Athletics -1.5 (-127) 2 Units
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: WSH +170, ATL -190
WSH: Erick Fedde | ATL: Kyle Muller
Despite trading away All-Star shortstop Trea Turner, home run leader Kyle Schwarber and the aforementioned Harrison and Gomes, the Nationals still rank second in wRC+ since the All-Star Break (120) and even since the trade deadline, they rank a modest 13th (97). In their five games this month, they've scored 26 runs (5.2 per game) and have put up four or more runs in each game.
The Nationals come into this having been swept by the Phillies in their four-game series. After losing the first three games by a total of seven runs, they dropped last night's game by one run after allowing four unearned runs to score in the ninth inning.
The Braves offense got a much-needed boost at the trade deadline with the acquisitions of Adam Duvall, Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario (with the latter being on the IL). Since then, they're tied-6th in wRC+ (115) and they're tied-14th in wRC+ (104) since the All-star break. They come into this weekend after sweeping the Cardinals in a three-game series after scoring 21 runs.
Fedde will be hoping to improve upon his 4-7 record and 5.01 ERA from 17 starts (82.2 IP). This will be the third time facing the Braves this season having allowed 10 earned runs in 6.2 IP from his prior two starts. In his six starts since July 01st, Fedde has a 7.24 ERA (27.1 IP).
Muller has been a revelation for a beleaguered Braves rotation with a 2.43 ERA from seven appearances (six starts) across 29.2 IP. His last three outings have come against the Padres, Mets and Brewers in which Muller has allowed just two earned runs (14.0 IP). His 4.59 xFIP and 4.41 SIERA suggest regression will happen but it's only a small sample size to look at so far.
He's yet to complete six innings so will need to rely on his bullpen which has the fourth-best ERA since the All-Star Break (2.74) and was also boosted by the addition of Richard Rodriguez at the trade deadline.
The Braves look set to jump ahead early in this one and I expect the Nationals to put up some runs but likely not enough to prevent the Braves from making it four straight wins.
Pick: Total runs - Over 9.5 (+100) 1 Unit
Pick: Runline - Braves -1.5 (+100) 1 Unit
Pick: First 5 innings - Braves -0.5 (-133) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres
Since the All-Star Break, the Padres have the second-highest K% against left-handed pitching (LHP) with a 27.2% K%. Meanwhile, Caleb Smith has a 26.1% K% on the year and a 25.1% K% as a starter. Since rejoining the rotation on June 01st, Smith has 59 strikeouts in 52.2 IP. He did start against the Padres on April 03rd and struck out four in 3.0 IP.
Given Smith has a 6.15 ERA since June 01st and hasn't been able to get through two innings in two of his last four starts, there's a risk he's knocked out the game early. But he's also stuck out six or more in six of his 11 starts in that time so we'll lean towards the recent trends and have a little nibble on him hitting the over.
New York Mets & Philadelphia Phillies
A huge series atop the NL East sees the Phillies sending trade deadline acquisition Kyle Gibson takes the mound. His three starts prior to the trade saw him give up 15 earned runs in 17.1 IP but his debut with the Phillies saw him go 6.2 IP and allow just two runs. What has been noticeable is Gibson's lack of strikeouts recently with just 11 in his last three starts (17.2 IP).
Despite the Mets stuttering form, since the All-Star Break their 18.3% K% against RHP is second-lowest in MLB. The addition of Javier Baez and Gibson now pitching in the NL, meaning he's facing the opposing pitcher does leave me a little apprehensive and the line for Gibson's strikeouts varies between 5.5 and 6.5 so check and shop around if needed.
Pick: Two-game parlay - Smith over 5.5 K's and Gibson under 6.5 K's (+268) - 0.5 Units
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