RADIO
Last week was very hit and miss. Carlos Martinez got us off to a great start with under 4.5 K. Then Luis Castillo happened and the less said about him right now, the better. Finally, the madness occurred. Picking under nine runs in the Royals vs White Sox game, Chicago scored eight in the first inning. They were the only runs scored until Kansas City scored a run in the bottom of the seventh. Then the White Sox scored a tenth run of the game in the ninth inning to kill the bet. Rough going, but those are the breaks.
Before we begin, I want to remind you that gambling should be fun. When the fun stops, stop. Never bet more than you're willing to lose. I'm no professional gambler, just a guy who loves the game and likes a bet. But I'll still be giving 100% in my research to make us some money. Everything I put here, I'll be backing myself so we're in this together. I'll also be keeping track of only my picks so I don't drag down the numbers from my colleagues.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) will be carrying the free picks on weekdays throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight picks. Let's make some money and have fun. but remember, please gamble responsibly!
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2021 MLB Betting Picks
- Moneyline Record: 0-1 (-0.5 U)
- O/U Record: 1-4 (-3.13 U)
- Runline Record: 0-3 (-2.0 U)
- 1st 5 Innings Record: 1-2 (-0.63 U)
- Prop Record: 7-3 (+4.06 U)
- 2021 Total Record: 9-13 (-2.2 U)
New York Yankees at Baltimore Orioles
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: NYY -160, BAL +150
NYY: Domingo German | BAL: Jorge Lopez
Six weeks into the season and we're still waiting for the Yankees offense to get going. They rank 18th in OPS (.694), 16th in ISO (.160) and 16th in wOBA (.309). They entered the weekend on the back of four straight series wins but after beating the Tigers 10-0 to end May, the Bronx Bombers have scored 46 runs in their last 12 games (3.83 a game) this month. In their last eight games, the Yankees have scored 25 runs (3.13 a game) and totaled just five runs in their last three-game series against the Rays.
The Orioles 142 runs scored in 38 games (3.74 a game) is tied-24th in MLB. They have scored 48 runs in their 12 games this month (four per game) but just 14 in their five games this week heading into this weekend series. Their offensive metrics aren't any better as they rank in the bottom six in OPS (.665), ISO (.144) and wOBA (.292).
German has pitched well since a rough start to the season with three of his last four outings being quality starts and compiling a 2.59 ERA in 24.1 IP. That includes a seven-inning shutout performance against the Orioles in which German allowed just four base runners. For the Orioles, Lopez has been sub-optimal with a 5.63 ERA in his seven starts. Two of those starts have been against the Yankees with a 6.23 ERA from those two outings. The second of those starts came at the end of April when Lopez gave up just two earned runs in four innings (four hits and two walks). Both bullpens have been very good this year with the Yankees bullpen ERA of 2.84 being third best and the Orioles 3.48 ERA being eighth best.
In the prior two series and after last night, the Yankees lead the Orioles 5-3 on the year and there's been a total of 58 runs scored (7.25 runs per game). Last night was only the second time these two have combined for more than seven runs in a game while the other six contests have all had six or seven runs scored total.
Pick: Over/Under total runs - Under 9 (-105) 1 Unit
Prop Bets
Texas Rangers at Houston Astros
Despite an 0-3 record, Luis Garcia has had an impressive start to the year for the Astros with a 3.86 ERA, 1.07 WHIP, 28.5% K% and 8.9% BB%. In his last three starts (against the Yankees, Angels and Mariners), he has struck out at 21 batters in just 15.0 IP and has at least six strikeouts in each of his last four starts.
The Rangers have the second-highest K% versus right-handed pitching (27.6% K%) in 2021. Zack Greinke got five strikeouts in seven innings against the Rangers last night despite entering the game with an 18.82% K% on the year. Earlier this week, Logan Webb struck out ten Rangers batters in 6.0 IP and Cristian Javier struck out six in 7.0 IP.
Pick: Garcia over 6.5 K (-120) 1 Unit
St. Louis Cardinals at San Diego Padres
Chris Paddack enters today's game with a career-low 22.2% K% and despite starting six games this year, has only totaled 26.1 IP. His longest outing was 5.1 IP and after a short IL-stint, he returned last Sunday and threw just three innings. He did strike out four batters and didn't allow a run but it seems as though the Padres will proceed with caution on Paddack's usage going forward.
The Cardinals meanwhile have a 24.3% K% against right-handed pitching this year (11th lowest) and last night struck out just five times in five innings against Joe Musgrove who has a 33.0% K% in 2021.
Pick: Paddack under 5.5 K (-111) 1 Unit
Under consideration
Domingo German over 5.5 K. He's struck out six in each of his last four starts including against the Orioles. Kluber struck out six Orioles hitters in six innings last night and they have a collective 23.7% K% versus right-handed pitching. One big consideration is who catches for the Yankees on Saturday as the difference defensively between Gary Sanchez and Kyle Higashioka is huge. If Higashioka is catching, I'd take the over. If it's Sanchez, I'd be more inclined to give it a miss.
I'll combine the two prop bet picks (Garcia over 6.5 K and Paddack under 5.5 K) in a parlay at +248 for 0.5 units too. If you add in German for a 3-game parlay, you can get odds of +614.
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