RADIO
Tonight we have 13 games on a night slate, with two-afternoon games as well. While there are times it can be tempting to place a lot of bets, I try to limit my action to no more than four to five wagers in a day, sometimes more like two or three. If you have read any of my other work, it may not come as a surprise that I am going to say that it is really important to exercise sound bankroll management, and to bet responsibly!
I mainly bet on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.
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Los Angeles Angels @ Oakland Athletics
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: OAK -145
LAA: Jose Suarez| OAK: James Kaprielian
Jose Suarez (4-2, 2.29) on the surface stats look pretty good, however his SIERA is 4.23 and his K-BB% is 12.4% (I like pitchers that have a K-BB% of at least 15%, over 25% is really good, over 30% is elite. Jason deGrom is at 41.7% at this point in the season). He is new to the rotation, throwing 75 pitches over 3 innings in his first start against Boston on July 5th, and then 88 pitches over 5 innings against Seattle on July 11th. The word from Joe Maddon is that he wouldn't be on a tight pitch count, so we will see. LA has the 5th worst bullpen ERA (4.73) in the American League.
James Kaprielan (4-3, 2.90) is the better pitcher despite the stats looking similar. His K-BB% is 16.7%, his strikeout rate is 4% higher than Suarez, their walk rates are similar. But high K rate means more upside. But the difference in this game is the bullpen. Oakland has the better bullpen era (3.90) as well.
I will side with the team that has a better lineup right now, slightly better starter, and the better bullpen.
Pick: Oakland ML (-145) BetMGM
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Miami Marlins @ Washington Nationals
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: MIA -117
MIA: Trevor Rogers | WAS: Paolo Espino
Trevor Rogers (7-6, 2.31) has been one of the best pitchers in the National League. His two starts prior to the All-Star Break raised an eyebrow as he had an ERA of 4 across those two starts. It's not horrible, but relative to his season stats, it's a concern. It's hard to know whether he is battling fatigue. He has hit the 100 inning milestone, after pitching just 28 in 2020 and 110.1 in 2019. He runs into a buzzsaw in Washington as they have scored 8, 4, 8, and 18 runs since the All-Star Break led by Juan Soto hitting 5 home runs in that span.
Paolo Espino (2-2, 3.33) is starting what looks to be a bullpen game from Washington. Washington's bullpen is not good (4.46 ERA). It makes a lot of sense why Miami is favored. That said, Washington's bats are clicking right now and I think betting Miami is a potential trap.
I'd rather take a bet on the total - I could see Miami scoring runs on Washington's bad bullpen and I could see Washington staying hot after scoring 18 runs last night.
Pick: Over 9 (-110) DraftKings Sportsbook
Texas Rangers @ Detroit Tigers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX -105
TEX: Dane Dunning| DET: Tarik Skubal
The Tigers are a feel-good story. Since May 8th, they are 35-27 and aren't a team that one just picks on anymore. Most recently, they are on a four-game winning streak.
The last time Dane Dunning (3-6, 4.22) faced Detroit, he allowed one run on five innings pitched and got his third win of the season. Tarik Skubal (5-8, 4.36) has been up and down this season: a 6.14 ERA in April, 3.33 ERA in May, 3.14 ERA in June, and then a 6.55 ERA in his last two starts in July, allowing 8 runs in 11 innings pitched. Skubal has reached 88 innings pitched, the most in his professional career. I wonder if Skubal is battling fatigue as well?
Both starting pitchers are comparable skill-wise. Both bullpens are terrible, Detroit's is the worst in the AL with a 5.19 ERA, while Texas has a 4.58 bullpen ERA. Because Detroit has been on a winning streak, I am going to go with the coin flip on the other side: Texas to win the game. If you want to get a little more action on the game, I could see both pitchers keeping the game close and the game coming in at Under 8.5 runs as well. Texas cannot score runs consistently and Dunning is capable of shutting down Detroit, as he showed in his last start against them.
Picks: Texas (-105) DraftKings Sportsbook, Under 8.5 (+100) DraftKings Sportsbook.
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