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Tonight we have 14 games and on a full slate, I try to limit my action to no more than four to five wagers. If you have read any of my other work, it may not come as a surprise that I am going to say that it is really important to exercise sound bankroll management, and to bet responsibly!
I mainly bet on BetMGM, FanDuel, and DraftKings sportsbooks. I know not everyone is able to bet on those sites, so if you are betting elsewhere just make sure to shop around and find the best odds.
We have been really increasing our sports betting content at RotoBaller, and this year will be no different. Tommy Bell (@BellRoto) will be handling things over in our premium offering, to go along with our awesome premium betting tools. Steve Janik (@stevejanik6) and Jamie Steed (@Baseball_Jimbo) will be carrying the free picks on during the week throughout the season with some help from yours truly. And Kipp Heisterman (@kipppsta) brings you the Monkey Knife Fight and PrizePicks DFS prop picks.
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O/U: 8.5 | Moneyline: ATL -180
ATL: Ian Anderson| PIT: Chad Kuhl
Chad Kuhl (2-5, 5.16) has struggled this season. His 5.62 SIERA is worse than his ERA at this point into the season. In June, he went 2-3 with a 4.21 ERA which is better than his season-to-date numbers. On the flip side, his June starts came against Miami (28th in runs scored), Milwaukee (14th in runs scored), Cleveland (19th in runs scored), St. Louis (26th in runs scored), and Colorado (15th in runs scored). Atlanta (11th in runs scored) will be the best offense he has faced since his April 13th start against San Diego.
Ian Anderson (5-4, 3.35) is coming off a seven-inning, three-hit, two-earned run outing against the Mets. He has had a very solid 2021 season. The Braves are coming off an 11-1 loss in Pittsburgh the night before.
Before looking at the odds, I like Atlanta's chances in the game here, especially coming off a loss. Paying the juice for (-180) is tough for me to do. If it were more like (-150) or (-160), I could go with it. I am more into the total in this game. The weather is supposed to be hot and humid. Atlanta's bullpen ERA is 21st in the MLB with a 4.72 ERA and Pittsburghs Bullpen 4.01 ERA is middle of the road. Hot weather, one shaky starting pitcher, a couple of shaky bullpens, and I see the potential for runs in this one.
One word of advice - check the weather prior to laying the wager. I am no meteorologist but often in the summer, hot and humid days create pop-up showers and thunderstorms. If the game is rained out, it's a push, but I don't like the over if it gets played in rain.
Pick: Over 8.5 (-110 BetMGM and Fanduel Sportsbook)
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#MLBDFS was wild last night but K-props continue to be HOT.
Martin Perez o/4.5 ✅
Tyler Anderson o/5.5 ✅
Mike Minor o/6.5 ✅
Trevor Bauer o/8.5 ✅@RotoBaller @RotoBallerMLB peeps in our premium slack get access to customized strikeout projections daily! pic.twitter.com/ROWW11LTah— "Thunder Dan" Palyo (@ThunderDanDFS) May 22, 2021
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Miami Marlins
O/U: 9.5 | Moneyline: LAD -129
LAD: Tony Gonsolin | MIA: Pablo Lopez
Tony Gonsolin (1-0, 2.81) is a talented pitcher. He has been working himself back from injury, averaging 62.8 pitches per start and a high of 81 pitches thrown in a game so far this season. He faces a Miami team that is 28th in runs scored, fifth in K%, and 29th in ISO.
Pablo Lopez (4-5, 2.97) is having a great season as well. He recently had that incident where he was ejected from his last start after throwing one pitch. The two starts prior to that, he pitched 13 innings collected 16 strikeouts and allowed just two runs.
Both teams have excellent starting pitchers and excellent bullpens (Miami's is seventh best in the MLB and L.A.'s is fifth). The play here is the Dodgers. The Dodgers have scored the third-most runs in the league. After dropping a close game last night, I think the Dodgers bounce back and get a win in what should be a good game.
Tip: If you do like Miami, watch the line movement. DraftKings is giving (-129) for the Dodgers, however other books are around (-140 as of this writing). Because the Dodgers are a popular team, I wouldn't be surprised to see Miami's +110 increase beyond that. That said, I don't mind the Dodgers at (-140) or even (-150), however, once the juice gets higher than that, I look at other games.
Pick: Los Angeles ML (-129) DraftKings Sportsbook
Detroit Tigers @ Texas Rangers
O/U: 9 | Moneyline: TEX -188
DET: Jose Urena| TEX: Dane Dunning
I don't know why Jose Urena (2-8, 6.22) continues to have a job in a starting rotation. In his five most recent starts since the beginning of June, he has posted an 0-4 record with an ERA of 12.50. We saw his ERA balloon from 4.25 to now 6.22. He is also backed by the fourth-worst bullpen in the MLB with a 5.09 ERA.
Dane Dunning (3-6, 4.38) has had an up-and-down season. He started off strong in April with a 1-1 record, 3.97 ERA, and only five walks allowed in five starts. In May he struggled, going 1-3 with a 5.47 ERA and 12 walks in five starts. He is coming into the game off of back-to-back decent outings: four innings, zero earned runs against Oakland, and five innings, two earned runs against Kansas City. Dunning doesn't pitch deep into games (has gone past five innings three times the entire year and averages 75 pitchers per start) and is backed by a below-average bullpen (19th - 4.52 ERA).
In addition, Detroit has been playing good baseball winning five of their last six games and averaging seven runs a game during the span. When looking at season-to-date numbers, both team's offenses are similar in that Texas is 21st in runs scored and Detroit is 22nd. With both pitchers having blow-up potential, both being backed by poor bullpens, I see plenty of runs in this game.
Pick: Over 9 Runs (-108) FanDuel Sportsbook
Philadelphia Phillies @ Chicago Cubs
O/U: N/A | Moneyline: PHI -130
PHI: Aaron Nola| CHC: Jake Arrieta
When betting MLB, I like to try to find a live underdog. The variance of a baseball game is so high that you can find some good value. On the surface, Jake Arrieta (5-8, 5.57) is not the pitcher you want to back. However, a closer look shows a 4.08 ERA at home. Aaron Nola (5-5, 4.44) has not pitched like the ace us major league baseball fans expect to see. Additionally, he has a 5.32 ERA on the road. Chicago has the second-best bullpen in the MLB with a 3.11 ERA while the Phillies have one of the worst with a 4.80 ERA. The Cubs have a 26-14 record at home while the Phillies have a 16-26 record on the road. I am willing to take a shot on the Cubs ending their 10-game losing streak tonight.
Pick: Chicago Cubs (+114) FanDuel Sportsbook
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