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Welcome to MLB Opening Week! It was a long offseason, but we have finally reached the beginning of the MLB season. We will be here week in and week out offering up advice for some of the best prop picks in the industry with Monkey Knife Fight.
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A few games we can look at today include the Twins at Tigers, Orioles at Yankees, and the Star Shootout: Main Games, which includes players from this evening's biggest games.
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Twins @ Tigers
Casey Mize more than 4.5 strikeouts and J.A. Happ less than 4.5 strikeouts
Casey Mize is a young phenom with a lot of arm talent and will be making his season debut in this one. While he will be facing a difficult Twins offense, he has been striking out a ton of hitters this spring as he had 27 punchouts across 18 2/3 IP. The Twins have also struggled vs. right-handed pitching early this season as they currently have a 30.3% K rate vs. righties, which is ranked fifth-worst in the league. Mize should also be rather loose and be able to pitch five or six today given that he threw the aforementioned 18 2/3 innings during the spring.
J.A. Happ gets a surprisingly tough matchup vs. the Tigers in this one. While Detroit has not faced a left-hander in 2021, they posted the league's second-best wRC+ vs. lefties in 2020 with a 143 stat line. Happ is also not a high strikeout pitcher as he has 182 strikeouts across his last 210 2/3 IP. Happ also failed to make it out of the fourth inning this spring and only threw a total of 8 2/3 IP, so it could be a shorter day for him in this one.
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Orioles at Yankees
More or Less Contest
Gerrit Cole more than 8.5 strikeouts and Dean Kremer more than 4.5 strikeouts
Cole only went 5 1/3 IP in the opener and still managed to strike out eight Blue Jays. He will likely get a longer leash in this one and has a solid matchup vs. the Orioles. The Orioles have posted a K rate of 27% vs. right-handers to begin the 2021 season, which ranks 11th-worst in the league thus far. It is also a solid sample size this early in the season as it is across 108 plate appearances. They are also only posting a 9.3% walk rate, which ranks them 20th in the league and makes it less likely they get Cole into any trouble, especially when you consider they are also only posting a SLG of .316.
Dean Kremer could get into some trouble in this one as the Yankees have walked quite a bit to begin the season vs. right-handers, but they are also striking out at a high clip as noted by their current K rate of 26.2%. Kremer is certainly capable of piling up some strikeouts as well as he struck out over a hitter per inning during spring training. He also threw nearly 16 innings this spring, which means he should be plenty warm heading into this one. If he can avoid the walks and makes it through the fifth or into the sixth inning, I would expect him to get over this total.
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Star Shootout Main Games
Fantasy Challenge Contest
Tyler Glasnow more than 7.5 strikeouts and Adbert Alzolay more than 5.5 strikeouts
Tyler Glasnow went 6 1/3 in his last start vs. the Marlins and managed to strike out six batters. While the Marlins may look like the easier matchup, I actually think he will pitch better vs. these Red Sox tonight. Boston is currently posting a K rate of 22.6% vs. right-handers, but this is not even the reason I like Glasnow here. The Red Sox are doing poorly in several categories vs right-handers including posting a walk rate of just 5.7%, a SLG of just .250, and an ISO of .042. Simply put, they have been awful to begin the season and this looks like a prime spot to jump into the mix with Glasnow.
The Brewers have been atrocious vs. right-handed pitching to begin the season as they are currently posting a K rate of 30.8%, which ranks third-worst in the league. Alzolay was solid this spring as he struck out eight hitters across 7 2/3 IP. He also struck out 29 hitters across 21 1/3 IP in 2020, so he certainly has the stuff to get the job done here. My only concern will be how deep he is allowed to pitch as he was not permitted to throw beyond the fourth inning this spring.
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