RADIO
Happy Monday, RotoBallers! I hope your New Year went great and your Week 17 has been profitable so far. I personally had a solid day yesterday, and hope to cap off my NFL week with a nice win tonight. We have a not-so-interesting matchup tonight as Baker Mayfield and the Cleveland Browns (7-8) head to Pittsburgh to take on Big Ben and the Pittsburgh Steelers (7-7-1). Both teams were eliminated from playoff contention yesterday, so it should be interesting to see how this one shakes out. Thanks to the advanced analytics of today, I'll do my best to provide you with as much in-depth analysis as possible regarding positional matchups and the like to help put some lunch money in your pocket. Let's break it down.
In this article, I will be providing you with daily fantasy football picks on FanDuel and DraftKings for the Monday Night Football slate on January 3rd. These lineups can vary from higher-priced players and elite options to lower-priced players and value picks on both DraftKings and FanDuel.
If you have any questions, you can follow me on Twitter @LucidMediaDFS and fire away, or sign up for a premium RotoBaller NFL package and chat with me and other NFL DFS analysts at any time you'd like. Let's make some coin this season gang, and let's get right to it!
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NFL DFS Captain Plays
Nick Chubb ($17,400 DK, $16,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 207 carries, 1143 rushing yards, nine rushing touchdowns, 23 targets, 19 receptions, 172 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown.
- Offensive Rushing DVOA: 10.4% (second)
- Opposing Defense Rush DVOA: 0.7% (30th)
I start off tonight's slate with Nick Chubb. Chubb had a mediocre game against Pittsburgh in Week 8, rushing for just 61 yards on 16 carries. However, you can see by the "smash spot" DVOA matchup that he should be able to get some revenge from that average performance. Kareem Hunt is questionable for this one as he was limited in practice on Friday and Saturday. If Hunt is out tonight, I rate Chubb as a must-play on this slate. Even if Hunt is in, though, I think Chubb is the top 1.5x option on the slate.
Recommendation: Cash (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Browns D/ST, Baker Mayfield
Ben Roethlisberger ($14,100 DK, $14,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 3,373 passing yards, 20 passing touchdowns, eight interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 6% (21st)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 7.9% (19th)
In what will be his last game at Heinz Field, I just have to write up Big Ben tonight. He's had a fantastic career with the Steelers, and while he's dropped off from a talent/production standpoint over the recent years, it shouldn't take away from how great he was in years prior. With the emotion and energy behind him, I can see Roethlisberger turning back the clock a bit tonight and at worst having a repeat performance of Week 8, where he threw for 266 yards and a touchdown.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK/FD)
Best Correlations: Diontae Johnson, Baker Mayfield, Chase Claypool
Other Captains: Diontae Johnson, Baker Mayfield, Jarvis Landry, Najee Harris
NFL DFS Flex Plays
Baker Mayfield ($9,200 DK, $14,500 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 2,825 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, 11 interceptions.
- Offensive Pass DVOA: 9.2% (19th)
- Opposing Defense Pass DVOA: 5.7% (18th)
I don't mind Baker on either site, but I definitely prefer this as a FanDuel play just due to the way you're able to make lineups and easily fit multiple studs. Baker had a tough game against Pittsburgh in Week 8, completing just 20 of 31 passes for 225 yards without throwing a touchdown or interception. This game is super difficult to predict simply because it means so little to everyone outside of Ben Roethlisberger. With that being said, though, I'll most likely have a 70/30 split between the Browns' rushing and passing offenses, respectively, but may pair Mayfield with Chubb/Hunt in a few lineups.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (FD/DK)
Best Correlations: Jarvis Landry, Rashard Higgins, Ben Roethlisberger, Kareem Hunt (if playing)
Jarvis Landry ($8,400 DK, $11,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 69 targets, 42 receptions, 452 yards, three touchdowns.
- Individual Matchup (vs Tre Norwood): No Data.
Jarvis Landry is the only reliable pass-catcher on the Browns from a fantasy perspective, seeing at least seven targets in each of his last four games. He grabbed five of 10 targets for 65 yards against Pittsburgh in Week 8, and if Baker Mayfield and the Browns' passing game is going to get anything going, you'd have to think it will start through Landry. He should be lined up against Tre Norwood, who played just seven snaps in Week 8, allowing two catches for 30 yards on two targets, creating a solid matchup and I can very easily see him logging five to six catches and a score in this one.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK, FD)
Best Correlations: Baker Mayfield, Najee Harris
Other Flex Plays: Najee Harris, Chase Claypool, Pat Freiermuth
NFL DFS Value Plays
Chris Boswell ($4,000 DK, $9,000 FD)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 33 field goals attempted, 29 field goals made, 24/26 PAT.
Of course, kickers are optimal. Boswell has been solid for the Steelers this year, and while I usually pick the kicker from the team that I feel will score more points, I will NOT be putting anyone with the name "Blewitt" in my lineups (sorry, Chris). Boswell has had solid fantasy output this season, coming into this one as K7 on the year.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Najee Harris, Ben Roethlisberger
Browns D/ST ($4,400 DK)
Key Stats:
- 2021 Stats: 12 interceptions, six fumble recoveries, 37 sacks, two defensive touchdowns.
I mention the Browns defense in case this one goes completely sideways for Pittsburgh. The Browns defense, specifically their pass rush, could cause big problems for Big Ben and the Steelers. They logged just two sacks and allowed 15 points in Week 8, but with temperatures a bit below freezing this one, we could see a solid defensive performance from the Brownies tonight against an ever-struggling Pittsburgh offense. I obviously wouldn't recommend playing the Browns defense in the same lineups I have a Roethlisberger CPT, so make sure you make that restriction when building your lineups.
Recommendation: Cash/GPP (DK)
Best Correlations: Nick Chubb, Kareem Hunt
Other Value Plays: Rashard Higgins, Donovan Peoples-Jones
Happy New Year everyone, and best of luck tonight!
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