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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Thunder Dan's NBA best bets! I have been trying to squeeze in some betting content between my daily coverage of NBA and MLB DFS and admittedly, it hasn't been that easy.
It's been a crazy week in the NBA and so far my betting record has taken a significant hit as a result. On Thursday my lone win came with the Jazz covering against the Blazers. The Cavs-Thunder game went over the total despite both teams having such poor offenses. I guess their defenses decided not to show up either, ha! The Bucks blew a lead in the fourth quarter and ended up losing by double digits to the Mavericks while Tomas Satoransky sat much of the fourth quarter in his game and ended up one stat shy of his PRA. It was a frustrating night for sure!
If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Saturday, April 10th, 2021. If you ever want to chat about NBA DFS or betting hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS, or better yet - join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! Good luck!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- Season Record 9-19
- Against the Spread 6-1
- Over/Under 1-6
- Teasers/Parlays 1-6
- Player Props 1-6
Against the Spread
Toronto Raptors (-3) @ Cleveland Cavaliers
Picking against the spread tonight is a nightmare. This game is only one of two games with a spread in single digits, with the other one being the Houston-GSW game with the Warriors installed as nine-point faves.
This game should be an ugly one, but I think it's our best bet at finding some value with an underdog in the Cavs. Trust me, I hate picking the Cavs here - I know - they're terrible. And they're my team. But they've won two in a row and scored 120+ points in each of those games. Kevin Love is playing 24 minutes and giving them a big offensive boost while Sexton and Garland do their thing in the backcourt. Hartenstein has filled in nicely at center and Taurean Prince is finally healthy and contributing in Larry Nance Jr's absence.
Meanwhile, the Raptors are a mess and their disaster of a season continues. They traded away Norman Powell at the deadline and have been without their best guards Fred VanVleet and Kyle Lowry for the last few games. FVV is definitely out tonight, while Lowry is still questionable to return. This team has been wildly inconsistent this year and is one of the biggest disappointments in the Eastern Conference. I think the Cavs are up for the challenge tonight and could get an unmotivated Raptors team that has seen their season slip away from them. Give me the Cavs and the points at home!
The Pick: Cleveland +3 (and pray that Lowry sits out another game)
Over/Under
Detroit Pistons (+11.5) @ Portland Trail Blazers (224 total)
We have another projected blowout here, but I like the odds of this game going over its total even if we have a lopsided affair. Detroit has been .500 this season as far as going over their totals, while Portland is hitting the over at a 55% clip. This game has a fairly neutral pace rating, but both teams rate above average offensively and below-average defensively over their last ten games. That should mean plenty of scoring on both sides.
Full disclosure - the Nets/Lakers game actually tops my model ratings with a -8 and would be a strong pick for the under but Kevin Durant is back for Brooklyn and I don't have much confidence in the LeBron/AD-less Lakers in slowing down the Nets enough tonight.
The Pick: Over 224 (good up to 225.5)
Teaser/Parlay
I'm addicted to parlays and teasers, but I wouldn't recommend overdoing them if you're new to betting. It can be tempting to parlay 4-5 teams' money lines or tease a bunch of spreads or totals, but the odds are attractive for a reason - because every time you add another outcome you are adding more variability into the bet. Now having said, I am going to give you my favorite multi-team ML parlay or teaser.
This is incredibly tough today, so I am going to roll some favorites and try to get some decent odds on a money line parlay. I really don't see any of these double-digit favorites losing and you could theoretically play all of them together, but the Jazz at -1000 don't do much for your odds so I will leave them out. We can double our money if these five big favorites win - not ideal to have to rely on five outcomes but these are pretty likely wins across the board.
The Pick: Nets/Sixers/Blazers/Suns/Warriors ML Parlay (+115 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Player Prop of the Day
This is where you'll find my favorite prop of the day.
The Pick: Check back later in the day for an updated player prop!
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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