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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Thunder Dan's NBA best bets! It might be Opening Day in MLB, but that doesn't mean we still can't make some profit on tonight's NBA games!
I'll start with the good news. On Tuesday, I nailed the Pelicans money line and bet them as underdogs in the morning, only to see them move all the way to five-point favorites by tip-off since the Mavericks sat our both stars. That moved me to 4-0 against the spread this year. The bad news is that I missed on the Washington over, which also ruined our little O/U teaser and Chris Paul came up a few stats shy of his PRA, dropping me to 1-3 on the season on totals, parlays, and props. However, I am confident in the process and ready to get back at it today with some more picks!
If you are new to this column or just starting to dabble in sports betting, start by reading through the overview. If you just want to get right to the picks, skip down a few paragraphs.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Thursday, April 1st, 2021. If you ever want to chat about NBA DFS or betting hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS, or better yet - join our RotoBaller premium slack group by signing up for a premium pass! Good luck!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- Season Record 7-9
- Against the Spread 4-0
- Over/Under 1-3
- Teasers/Parlays 1-3
- Player Props 1-3
Against the Spread
Atlanta Hawks (+1) @ San Antonio Spurs
I will keep this one pretty short and sweet. Yes, the Spurs handled the Kings last night and picked up a nice win, but we definitely saw that coming after the Kings kicked their butts a few days ago. Sacramento is not good, and that victory doesn't do much to change my mind about the Spurs being mediocre at best.
The Hawks are playing solid basketball right now, and while they are under .500 on the season, they've been competitive on a nightly basis against just about anyone. They're only 1-4 over their last five games, but three of those losses were to top-tier teams (Clippers, Nuggets, Suns). Last year, Atlanta's defense was a major issue, but they are a much better defensive team with the additions of Clint Capela and Bogdan Bogdanovic. Plus they have some nice scoring off the bench with veteran Danilo Gallinari. Once they get De'Andre Hunter back, I see them making a push for a playoff spot.
Atlanta is just simply a better team and with the Spurs being on a back-to-back, I give the Hawks the edge here. This line has already moved from Atlanta +1 to -1, so grab it now before it moves any further towards the Hawks.
The Pick: Atlanta -1 (-109 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Over/Under
Golden State Warriors (+2.5) @ Miami Heat (218.5 total)
This one could be ugly, as most Miami games tend to be. My model likes the under on this game in a big way, followed closely by the over in Charlotte-Brooklyn and Washington-Detroit. But I feel the most confident here. Miami has won their last two games, ending a six-game losing streak during the month of March. But they continue to struggle on offense and seem to be content playing some of the slowest, most boring basketball in the association. Even in their two recent wins, they failed to crack 100 points and held both opponents under 90 points.
The Warriors like to play fast when they can, but their pace has been trending down this season. I have this game pegged for about 97 possessions, which is three lower than the league average. When you factor in Miami's elite defense and the Warriors' struggles to score on offense, I think GSW is held in the 100-point range tonight win or lose.
The Pick: UNDER 218.5 points (good down to 216)
I'm addicted to parlays and teasers, but I wouldn't recommend overdoing them if you're new to betting. It can be tempting to parlay 4-5 teams' money lines or tease a bunch of spreads or totals, but the odds are attractive for a reason - because every time you add another outcome you are adding more variability into the bet. Now having said, I am going to give you my favorite multi-team ML parlay or teaser.
I am rolling out a three-team ML parlay today with the Hawks, Sixers, and Wizards. Washington is the riskiest play there in my opinion as we never exactly know which version of Westbrook is going to show up, but I like them a lot against a Detroit team that is tanking this season and on a back-to-back. I grabbed this bet early on this morning which is why I got Atlanta at plus odds, but you should still be able to get a decent payout by using these three teams together.
Player Prop of the Day
This is where you'll find my favorite prop of the day. This is an easy bet for me and I wouldn't be surprised for this number to move during the day. Russell Westbrook's rebound prop is only 11.5 on DraftKings tonight. Consider that he's smashed that number in six of his last seven games and the last three in a row by a wide margin, including a 19-rebound performance against these Pistons last week. I'd rather bet on the boards here than Westy's points (since he can go cold shooting) or assists (since that relies on teammates making shots). Russ is going to get his boards and is on a mission to put up a triple-double every night. Hit this prop with confidence and don't look back.
The Pick: Over 11.5 rebounds (-139 DraftKings Sportsbook), good up to 12.5
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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