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Hello, RotoBallers, and welcome back to Thunder Dan's NBA best bets! Thursday night we hit another spread as the Knicks came back after trailing the entire game against Washington to hit two late free throws and cover. Whew, it was a sweat for sure.
The Sixers over just narrowly missed, but I think it was still the right bet and the line moved up consistently all day. I am still kicking myself, however, for not recommending the over in the Sacramento game since it was the highest-rated in my model.
The 3-team money line parlay hit, which made it a profitable night for me. Tobias came up two rebounds short of his prop, though, dropping my props record to 0-2.
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Overview
For me, betting and DFS analysis goes hand in hand. We are often looking for some of the same information and trends when deciding which bets to make, player props to hit, or players to roster in DFS contests. If we love the over in a game, then it would also make sense to stack that game up in a GPP. Personally, I like to spread out my investment each night between betting and DFS and have found that doing so helps smooth out the sometimes uneven returns of the rollercoaster that is NBA DFS.
I have been working hard over the last months developing my own models for NBA games. I've had enough success using them that I feel comfortable in passing along my highest confidence picks at this point. I am by no means a professional bettor, but simply someone who bets on the NBA daily and has spent a good deal of time trying to make it a profitable endeavor.
In this article, I'll be providing my favorite picks against the spread, game totals, parlays, teasers, and player props for NBA games on Saturday, March 27th, 2021. If you ever want to chat about NBA DFS or betting hit me up on Twitter @ThunderDanDFS. Good luck!
Thunder Dan's NBA Best Bets
- Season Record 4-4
- Against the Spread 2-0
- Over/Under 1-1
- Teasers/Parlays 1-1
- Player Props 0-2
Against the Spread
Dallas Mavericks (-2) @ New Orleans Pelicans
I am trying to figure out how Dallas is favored on the road here and I am a bit stumped. They were handled by the Pacers last night despite a big game from Porzingis, who tried his best to carry the load since Doncic was out. Luka has a bad back and I would be somewhat surprised if he's feeling better by today. Even if Luka plays, Porzo logged 38 minutes last night and could be rested on the second half of a back-to-back leaving Dallas one star short again.
The Mavs simply don't have much firepower on offense when they are missing Luka or Porzingis and they're a subpar defensive team all the time. While the Pelicans have their struggles on defense, they are an elite offensive team and Zion Williamson is taking the league by storm. He had another huge outing last night and could dominate this Dallas frontcourt in this one.
The Pelicans are 7-3 against the spread this season as home dogs, winning all seven of those games - not just covering. I won't be surprised to see this line move towards New Orleans today and once we get word that at least one of those Mavs studs is out, we could even see the Pelicans favored. Jump on New Orleans now to maximize value.
The Pick: Pelicans ML (+104 DraftKings Sportsbook)
Over/Under
Chicago Bulls (+3) @ San Antonio Spurs (223.5 total)
It's a tough card for totals as not many games really stand out in my model today. But this one really does as I have it pegged for only 218 points. After starting out the year as a team that was playing solid offense but no defense, the Bulls have reversed course and started to play better defense. They've also slowed down their pace of play considerably, and that's a trend I think we see continue as they should play through newly acquired center Nikola Vucevic quite a bit on offense in the half-court.
The trends all line up here nicely, as the Bulls are now hitting the under at a 51% rate and the Spurs at a 57% rate. I mentioned the pace for Chicago already, but the Spurs are playing slower lately, too, and the difference in the projected pace of this game based on each teams' last ten games is a full five possessions slower when compared to their season averages.
The Pick: Under 223.5 (play all the way down to 221)
I'm addicted to parlays and teasers, but I wouldn't recommend overdoing them if you're new to betting. It can be tempting to parlay 4-5 teams' money lines or tease a bunch of spreads or totals, but the odds are attractive for a reason - because every time you add another outcome you are adding more variability into the bet. Now having said, I am going to give you my favorite multi-team ML parlay or teaser.
Today I am going to keep it simple. I like the Pelicans as home dogs, as I mentioned earlier. But I also like the Bulls as road dogs against a struggling Spurs team. I have the Bulls and Spurs rated really closely in terms of their overall team quality, but I think the addition of Vucevic is really going to improve Chicago's offensive consistency and rebounding.
I can parlay both underdogs for some nice odds here. I think both teams could easily be favored. Here's what it looks like on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Player Prop of the Day
This is where you'll find my favorite prop of the day. Today I am targeting one of my favorite fantasy players, Pelicans guard Nickeil Alexander-Walker. Better known as "NAW" in NBA circles, the second-year guard is coming on strong as a member of the Pelicans rotation and has performed well in spot-starts when Lonzo Ball is hurt. He will make his fourth-straight start tonight in a great matchup against the Mavericks, a team that has allowed some serious production to the point guard position this season. NAW has hit the over on this prop three straight times and the guaranteed minutes and positive matchup make me think he will do it again.
The Pick: Nickeil Alexander-Walker over 23.5 PRA (-115 FanDuel Sportsbook)
Thanks for checking this new column out and check back every Tuesday, Thursday, and Saturday for the rest of the NBA season! Good luck and bet responsibly!
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