RADIO
This NBA season continues to pique the interests of sports-fans everywhere, but not for the reason most people would expect. Over the previous two decades, the NBA has created this equation about itself that high-scoring games equal entertainment, entertainment equals interest, and interest equals prosperity. However, as it turns out, the rule change introduced this year has brought basketball back to it's "foundation," where consistent defense is rewarded and offensive-threats have to rely on their skill rather than perpetual bail-outs from refs.
With a nine-game slate filled with All-Star talent, it's important to note the looming trend that this new foul rule has created. Less points are being scored and the unders are hitting at a ridiculous level, but Vegas isn't oblivious to this fact and they have been adjusting scores accordingly. Projections will even themselves out with every passing night, so try and get in on quality NBA action before you miss out.
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POR @ PHI
Damian Lillard (POR) LESS 26.5 Points - Joel Embiid (PHI) MORE 25.5 Points
Despite, Damian Lillard not putting up the same point totals fans have become familiarized with, we saw this transition coming from the end of last year. Lillard won't shy away from scoring, but if he's not hitting his jumpshot, his overall upside is very limited. He makes up for the lack of scoring by conducting the offense and finding open teammates, but this bet specifically is about how many points he will score. Since he's bound to have one of those Lillard-esque games one of these nights, the projected makes sense, but lately he just hasn't shown that type of efficiency. Until that "break-out" game, Lillard is going to keep feeding the hot hand and posting career-highs in assists.
Joel Embiid has shown he doesn't need Ben Simmons to produce, but similarly to Lillard, Embiid isn't posting the same stats he's capable of. The foul rule has forced both of these players to shift away from drawing fouls to score, and it's having a direct impact in the box score. Embiid scores every night and there isn't a defender that can really limit him if he happens to be converting. Jusuf Nurkic might pull form Embiid's rebound totals, but Nurkic won't be able to keep the 76ers frontcourt from controlling the paint.
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CLE @ CHA
LaMelo Ball (CHA) MORE 35.5 Fantasy Points - Jarrett Allen (CLE) MORE 31.5 Fantasy Points
It might not have been a career-game in the stat column from LaMelo Ball, but this is one of the most complete games we've seen from the second year player. There was no doubt he'd produce, but in terms of fantasy, it doesn't get much better than this. His projected against the Cavaliers defense is criminal for his most recent game log, so the only real worry here is what Jarrett Allen will do.
Since the Hornets frontcourt is still lacking size and strength, Jarrett Allen is more likely to be pulled out to the perimeter to guard the Hornets "small-ball" lineup, rather than bumping around in the paint. In games where teams have one or two solid rebounding bigs, Allen doesn't have much choice to play his role, defend shots, and box out opponents so his teammates can clean up the rebounds. It's tough to watch, but that shouldn't be the case tonight and Allen will have a slight boost in terms of what he is going to be able to do because of who he is playing.
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TOR @ NYK
Julius Randle (NYK) LESS 22.5 Points - Fred VanVleet (TOR) MORE 17.5 Points
The Raptors have struggled early, and although the blame can't be put solely on one player, Fred VanVleet playing poorly is exacerbating the whole situation. When Toronto doesn't have the support from their guards, it weighs their offense towards one or two players and defenses have no problem shutting that down. VanVleet offers spacing, so when he can't score, he isn't bringing much to the table. Since his projected keeps dropping and VanVleet, in all honesty, could be playing worse, there's a good reason to look at him as being the sole contributor for the Raptors. The Knicks defense is intimidating, but their backcourt will need to step up if VanVleet is playing to his potential.
Julius Randle started the season how he ended last season, doing everything for the Knicks offense. That has completely changed this year and now that the Knicks are winning games, he has taken a backseat to players who have had no problem contributing, up to this point. Since the rest of the offense has found their footing, Randle can play the forward position he has been wanting to play since he was a Laker. Get the ball in the paint, look for open shooters, and chase rebounds.
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DEN @ MEM
Nikola Jokic (DEN) MORE 48.5 Fantasy Points - Ja Morant (MEM) MORE 39.5 Points
Nikola Jokic will have to deal with Steven Adams, but the more appropriate sentence would be Steven Adams has to deal with Nikola Jokic. It won't be a fun outing for either, but Adams doesn't have the skill-set able to lock down or even contain Jokic. The Grizzlies have been competing against every team they face and Ja Morant has been the backbone behind their success, but Jokic being on the court is already too much for the Grizzlies defense to handle. Memphis can survive the ensuing onslaught from Jokic, but they absolutely, have to limit the rest of the Nuggets if the Grizzlies want to win. It'll just take more heroics from Morant.
When you have someone like Morant on your team, no game or lead is out of reach. The biggest problem here is whether or not he can offer any spacing to help his team. Even on nights where Morant struggles, he still contributes handily with his nightly share of assist and rebounds. Morant's floor is as high as any guards floor can be, simply because he doesn't need to hit his jumpshot to score. Few players are able to score like Morant in the paint, and the Nuggets paint defense is Jokic. This game is going to fall on the shoulders of two people and they should have no problems surpassing tonights projected.
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