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With 11-games Wednesday, it's easy to find options. What isn't easy is finding that grouping of players that allows for low-risk betting. However, Monkey Knife Fight has the algorithm ready to try and utilize as much variance as possible for their favor. There's always the case a player has a bad night, for example, Jerami Grant only scoring seven points his last game.
Grant will continue to be the leading scorer for the Pistons until someone is ready to step up, but he's extremely prone to these types of games. Sadly, this doesn't mean he consistently underperforms because he doesn't. More times than not, Grant will score 15-25 points a night and take the most shot attempts on his team. Nights he scores below 10 points should be few and far between, but with the help he has, it's evident that even a good shooting night might not allow him enough minutes to surpass a projected higher than 20 points.
MonkeyKnifeFight.com is always ahead of the curve with their canceling of contests amid postponements, so don't worry about wasting money on a player or game that might not play. As always, you can find me in the NBA Chat Room or @HalfCourtJester on Twitter with any questions, especially since lines and players are subject to change throughout the day.
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IND @ DET
Malcolm Brogdon (IND) MORE 20.5 Points - Jerami Grant (DET) MORE 19.5 Points
In his four games since returning, the only game Malcolm Brogdon failed to score 20 points in, he still triple-doubled. He's too important to this offense right now and since the Pacers DO NOT have nightly support in their frontcourt, be it that Myles Turner and Domantas Sabonis can't score or they won't shoot, Brogdon is stuck with the extra shot attempts. Against the Pistons there won't be a lack of spacing.
For Jerami Grant, he's looking at lining up across from Domantas Sabonis, and even though he might be stuck defending the paint, offensively, Grant's length dominates Sabonis' speed and size. In his last three games versus the Pacers, he's scored 25 points, 29 points, and least recently, a nine-point outing on 17 shot attempts in a loss way back in February.
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BOS @ ATL
Jayson Tatum (BOS) MORE 25.5 Points - Trae Young (ATL) MORE 24.5 Points
Despite struggling, Jayson Tatum's floor is no lower than 20 points. Usually, his projected is closer to 30 points, but with the way he's been playing, a 30-point night is a asking a lot from him and asking him to do it efficiently. The research behind this does not entirely support him either, but he's yet to take less than 20 shots when facing Atlanta's defense. All he needs to do is finally have a mediocre game and he hits 25 points without hesitation.
It's has to be tough reading that last paragraph and then deciding a similar fate for Trae Young against the Celtics' abysmal defense. Everything about this says go the over, and the only reason for taking the under is a gut-feeling that Young, literally, has a 24 point, 12 assist game and that's it. A bad night for Trae Young still allows for enough shot attempts so he can still easily pass any projected that isn't in the high-20's.
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WAS @ CHA
Bradley Beal (WAS) LESS 25.5 Points - Miles Bridges (CHA) MORE 20.5 Points
Bradley Beal's first game back always raises eyebrows because of the potential, but this season hasn't been anywhere near as promising as his last two. It could just be a slow start for Beal, but realistically, Beal is assuming more of a point guard role and although it seemingly impacted his jumpshot, his assist totals are rising and shooting efficiency should follow. That doesn't mean there's reason to take the chance on him tonight, but even playing alongside Spencer Dinwiddie hasn't kept Beal from assuming a point guard role and assuming it moving forward.
Miles Bridges' game log over the past two weeks is hideous and terrifying. After one of the strongest starts to the season, out of anyone, Bridges has cooled off significantly, but that doesn't mean he is cold by any means. He is still prone to off games, and that's ok, but against two of the league's current, best defenses, Bridges scored 24 points against the Knicks, and 22 points against the Warriors. Team defensive stats are going to be meaningless when it comes to trying to predict Bridges statline, so instead look who he is going to be guarding and vice versa, Kyle Kuzma.
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ORL @ NYK
Julius Randle (NYK) MORE 19.5 Points - Cole Anthony (ORL) MORE 18.5 Points
The Magic frontcourt is intimidating. They might not be the most experienced, but they have size and know how to rebound. Julius Randle in his last few games has looked awkward to say the least. It's not to say he ever strayed away from how he's always played, but there hasn't been a single jumpshot he's taken where he's not fading away or making it harder on himself for no reason. When he scores around the paint, obviously, he doesn't need to focus in on his jumper, but it seems that all his time working in the post has negatively impacted his ability to shoot a normal jumpshot. He'll most likely score 20 points tonight, but until he's able to contribute with a quality jumpshot, 20 points is a ceiling even with all his usage.
Cole Anthony could not be in a better situation. Ok, technically he could, but for this moment and time, a second-year point guard getting all the usage he wants with the support of two frontcourt pieces that provide spacing and are multiple lob-threats? That is ideal for someone like Anthony, who loves to score, but also knows his size can inhibit him from dominating the paint and creating proper space. Even though he's not breaking his 31-point career high on a nightly basis, out of everyone on the Magic he's the only one putting together quality games night-in and night-out.
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